SAS predictions: The Great AI Reality Check of 2026

Data and AI leaders predict an AI coming of age

CARY, N.C., Nov. 5, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- At the close of 2025, AI enthusiasm is met at every turn with doubt. Alongside remarkable AI progress and successes, the specter of a potential AI bubble, energy emergencies and failing GenAI pilot projects loom large. Looking ahead, SAS experts predict that 2026 will be a year of reckoning, when the feet of AI power brokers will be held to the fire to realize ROI and confront ethical and economic quandaries head-on.

Despite legitimate concerns for what lies ahead, the future is hardly all doom and gloom. SAS thought leaders emphasize a simple message to move forward: It's time for AI providers and organizational users to be accountable. Embracing the fundamentals of data management and trustworthy AI is the only way for this technology to come of age and achieve its full potential to benefit humans, empower organizations and accelerate innovation.

See more expert predictions for 2026 across tech, financial services, insurance, marketing, government, life sciences, healthcare and more at blogs.sas.com/predictions .

Data center downfall.
Major investments in data center buildouts will prove impractical as costs come home to roost; expectations were high, but resulting revenue wasn't enough to cover the expense. Tech companies angle for alternatives. Economics experts crow told-you-so.

–    Jared Peterson, Senior Vice President, Platform Engineering

The AI spending shake-up is coming.    
After billions wasted on ChatGPT wrappers and vaporware, CFOs are demanding real ROI – and most generative AI projects can't deliver. The honeymoon phase where "AI innovation" justified any budget is over, replaced by brutal questions about cost per query, accuracy rates and measurable business outcomes. Companies that can't show concrete savings, revenue growth or productivity gains within six to 12 months will see their AI initiatives shelved, or their vendors replaced.

–    Manisha Khanna, Senior Product Manager, AI & Generative AI

CIO? That's Chief Integration Officer to you.
In 2026, CIOs will answer the call to orchestrate the agentic AI future. As AI agents proliferate, the CIO's role will decisively shift from tech enabler to ecosystem integrator: the Chief Integration Officer. AI governance, integration and cross-functional leadership will shape the day of every CIO as we determine the future of IT architecture in an agent-led world.

–    Jay Upchurch, Chief Information Officer

Meet your new coworkers: Agentic AI.
As we mark half a century of innovation, resilience and growth, 2026 ushers in a new era of enterprises evolving into ecosystems where AI agents are no longer tools; they are teammates. Enterprises will be expected to operate with mixed human-AI teams, where agents act as trusted collaborators, executing tasks, sharing context and learning continuously alongside people.

–    Udo Sglavo, Vice President, Applied AI and Modeling Research & Development

Agentic AI will be held accountable for profit...and loss.
By the end of 2026, Fortune 500 companies will be reporting agentic systems autonomously resolving more than a quarter of multi-step customer interactions. These agents won't just advise, they'll execute, with measurable revenue impact. That will also create new roles like Agent SRE and even Chief Agent Officer. The flip side is that the first major "agent outage" will hit headlines, as organizations discover that when autonomous systems drive revenue, downtime has a price tag.

–    Iain Brown, Head of AI & Data Science, Northern Europe

AI empowerment wins over AI replacement. 
Do you want to play to win, or not to lose? In 2026, leaders will face a spectrum between two options: either use AI to eliminate jobs or use AI to empower people to create a competitive advantage. It is becoming increasingly clear that AI should empower people – not replace them – and companies will need bold and inspirational leaders to invest in their workforce through continued change.

–    Bryan Harris, Chief Technology Officer

Time to mop up AI slop.
Remember when the log4J breach rocked the open-source community? In 2026, mature, early AI adopters that bypassed attempts to measure and incorporate AI responsibly will be exposed. The result will be a massive loss of credibility as their use of commoditized AI slop is surfaced to the masses.

–    Luis Flynn, Market Strategist for Applied AI, Open Source Software & ModelOPS

Trust and innovation couple up. 
In 2026, the AI debate will no longer be one of innovation versus trust. As government regulation of AI remains inconsistent, corporate self-governance will extend to include the necessary guardrails to enable AI in the enterprise responsibly. The organizations that thrive won't simply be those that deploy AI first; it will be those that recognize the strategic reality that governance isn't a restraint on innovation, it's a necessary companion.

–    Reggie Townsend, Vice President, Data Ethics Practice

Sovereign and hybrid AI architectures rise. 
Global enterprises will demand control over their data, models and infrastructure. "Bring your own model" and "sovereign AI" setups – where companies run foundation models within their own governance and compliance boundaries – will become the default for regulated industries. In other words, the cloud stays, but the control shifts.

–    Marinela Profi, Global Agentic AI Strategy Lead

Energy capacity crowns AI collaborators.
U.S. data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027 to continue operating. Running at 90% capacity, a five-gigawatt data center would consume as much energy as 3.65 million homes in one year. As other global powers invest in gigawatts of solar power per day, without increasing power capacity as quickly as possible, the U.S. will lose its ability to collaborate and advance in AI and data on the international stage in 2026.

–    Franklin Manchester, Global Insurance Advisor

Agentic AI matures. 
By 2026, agentic AI – systems that act, decide and adapt autonomously – will move from pilots to the core of how organizations operate and serve customers. Those investing in the right infrastructure, governance and skills will unlock smarter decisions and seamless experiences. Those who don't will fall behind both in performance and in meeting customer expectations.

–    Jennifer Chase, Chief Marketing Officer

Counting on quantum.
In 2026, the quantum market will heat up considerably as hopes rise that the technology will mature to early-stage value by 2030. Most investors will broaden their scope from hardware and post-quantum cryptography to a greater emphasis on software and applications. Meanwhile, keep your eyes peeled for the phrase 'quantum architecture': it encompasses the full stack of a quantum system, including the software and application layers that drive real-world quantum value. Expect to see hiring ramp up for in-house expertise to drive toward this future.

–    Amy Stout, Head of Quantum Product Strategy

Synthetic data becomes the new battleground for AI supremacy.
Synthetic data is not a workaround, but a strategic weapon against data scarcity, privacy limitations and compliance bottlenecks. In 2026, expect a data arms race, where companies compete not only on multimodal real-world data but on how convincingly they can create it. The winners? Those who master synthetic realism and shift at scale from experimental to essential capabilities that drive business advantage.

–    Alyssa Farrell, Senior Director, Platform and Horizontal Solutions

HR's new workforce: humans + agents.
By 2026, HR leaders will manage more than people, they'll manage AI agents too. As agentic AI becomes part of daily workflows, HR will define new policies for onboarding, performance and collaboration between humans and digital coworkers. The future of workforce management will be hybrid-human and machine.

–    Jenn Mann, Chief Human Resources Officer

AI's market reckoning: Unchecked innovation meets accountability.
2026 will mark the start of AI's market reckoning – when hype collides with governance and only accountable innovation endures. The push for consistent ROI and transparent oversight will shutter vanity projects and reward the disciplined, refocusing investment on the fundamentals: data orchestration, sound modeling and explainable governance. Overhyped technologies will fade, replaced by responsible AI built for measurable impact and with operational rigor.

As AI hype gives way to AI accountability, only two questions remain – how deep will the reckoning run, and when will the renaissance begin?

–    Stu Bradley, Senior Vice President, Fraud & Security Intelligence

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