SOUTHERN STATES DOMINATE LIST OF RISKIEST U.S. HOUSING MARKET COUNTIES IN Q2 2025

California Leads with Most At-Risk Counties, Virginia Among Safest; With Prices High Nationwide, Unemployment and Foreclosure Rates Drive Local Housing Market Risk

IRVINE, Calif., Sept. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the second quarter of 2025. The report shows that many of the highest and lowest risk counties were located in the South.

Of the 50 highest risk markets, 14 were in California, seven were in Florida, five in New Jersey, and four in Louisiana. Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and county unemployment rates.

The financial pressures continued to grow on homeowners in many markets in the second quarter, with home prices rising to record highs while, as of June, mortgage rates, wages, and unemployment rates had largely held steady.

In 19 percent (111) of the 579 counties with sufficient data to analyze, residents would have had to spend at least half of their annualized wages to purchase and maintain a home. In about 63 percent of the counties, residents would have had to spend at least a third of their annual wages on home expenses.

"This summer's home prices were certainly eye-catching, but there are many factors that contribute to the health of a local housing market," said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. "Our index takes into account key indicators beyond just sales price to create a barometer that helps folks better understand where their market is headed."

"There's uncertainty about how long prices can keep going up, and what will happen with the broader economy," he added. "That can be scary for owners and prospective buyers who don't always get a full view of their market."

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.

The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 579 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the second quarter of 2025. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

Foreclosures, unemployment key indicators
The riskiest counties in ATTOM's analysis were characterized by a combination of relatively high foreclosure and unemployment rates. Several of them, particularly California counties that have been hit hard by wildfires in recent years, will be familiar to regular readers of this report.

The riskiest counties were Charlotte County, FL; Humboldt County, CA; Shasta County, CA; Butte County, CA; and Cumberland County, NJ.

While the median home sales price and home affordability measures varied between these counties, all five had unemployment rates above June's non-seasonally adjusted national average of 4.36 percent. They also all had ratios of at least one in every 766 homes in the county in foreclosure.

Expenses high in California, mortgages struggling in Louisiana
Nationwide, placing a down payment on a home, paying a mortgage, and covering other expenses cost the typical owner just over a third (33.7 percent) of their annualized wages in the second quarter of 2025. But in some counties, costs were much higher and even exceeded what a typical worker could cover with a full year's pay.

In Marin County, CA, home expenses consumed 119.7 percent of the typical resident's annual wages; in Santa Cruz County, CA expenses consumed 116.1 percent of typical annual wages; in Maui County Hawaii, expenses consumed 111.5 percent of typical annual wages; in Kings County, NY, expenses consumed 109 percent of typical annual wages; and in San Luis Obispo County, CA expenses consumed 99.3 percent of typical annual wages.

Nationally, 2.7 percent of homes were considered seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the properties were at least 25 percent more than the properties' estimated market values. Of the 579 counties in ATTOM's analysis, about 39 percent (223) had higher rates of seriously underwater homes.

Seven out of the 10 counties with the highest underwater rates were in Louisiana. The top five were Rapides Parish, LA (17.3 percent of homes seriously underwater); Calcasieu Parish, LA (16.9 percent); Caddo Parish, LA (14.3 percent); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (14.1 percent); and East Baton Rouge Parish, LA (12.1 percent).

About one in every 1,413 homes in the country faced a foreclosure action during the second quarter of 2025.

The counties with the highest foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC (one in every 355 homes facing foreclosure); Charlotte County, FL (one in every 372 homes); Oswego County, NY (one in every 427 homes); Kaufman County, TX (one in every 467 homes); and Lake County, IN (one in every 488 homes).

About 35 percent (204) of the counties in ATTOM's analysis had June unemployment rates higher than the national rate of 4.4 percent. The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Imperial County, CA (19 percent); Yuma County, AZ (15.2 percent); Tulare County, CA (10.8 percent); Merced County, CA (10.5 percent); and Kings County, CA (9.8 percent).

Southern counties at the extremes
The South had some of the most representation among both the 50 least risky counties and the 50 most risky counties.

Of the most favorable, or least risky counties, 18 were in the South and 18 were in the Northeast.

New York had the most, with eight, followed by Wisconsin, with seven, and New Hampshire and Tennessee, with four each.

Of the 50 riskiest counties in ATTOM's analysis, 21 were spread across the South, followed by the West, with 18.

California had the most, with 14; followed by Florida, with seven; New Jersey, with five; and Louisiana, with four.

Healthiest counties benefit from low unemployment, foreclosure rates
In a sign that high home costs are affecting all kinds of housing markets, in the second quarter of 2025 buying and maintaining a home would have cost more than a third of the typical resident's annualized wages in 34 out of the 50 least risky markets and 40 out of the 50 riskiest markets.

Among the 50 least risky counties, those with the smallest share of wages needed to cover home costs were Chautauqua County, NY (17.8 percent); Potter County, TX (19.6 percent); Erie County, NY (22.6 percent); Madison County, AL (25.8 percent); and Olmsted County, MN (27.5 percent).

Of those 50 most favorable counties, all but six had seriously underwater home rates better than the national rate of 2.7 percent. The counties with the lowest rates of seriously underwater homes were Chittenden County, VT (0.5 percent); Washington County, RI (0.7 percent); Fairfax County, VA (0.9 percent); Hillsborough County, NH (0.9 percent); and Rockingham County, NY (1.0 percent).

Only two of the top 50 counties had foreclosure ratios worse than the national ratio of one in every 1,413 homes facing foreclosure. The top counties with the best foreclosure rates were Chittenden County, VT (one in every 37,013 homes); Orange County, NC (one in every 15,532 homes); Yellowstone County, MT (one in every 14,673 homes); Dane County, WI (one in every 11,082 homes); and Berkeley County, WV (one in every 10,502 homes).

None of the top 50 counties had unemployment rates above the national rate of 4.4 percent in June. The top counties with the best unemployment rates were Cumberland County, ME (2.2 percent); Chittenden County, VT (2.3 percent); Shelby County, AL (2.4 percent); Gallatin County, MT (2.4 percent); and Saratoga County, NY (2.5 percent).

Conclusion
The second quarter of 2025 revealed intensifying financial pressure on U.S. homeowners, with affordability challenges persisting even as national wage and employment figures held steady. Southern and Western counties dominated the list of most vulnerable housing markets, driven by a combination of high foreclosure rates, underwater mortgages, and elevated unemployment. California and Florida remained prominent among the riskiest areas, while several counties in the Northeast and Midwest showed relative stability. The report underscores how, despite record home prices, localized economic stressors continue to expose certain markets to heightened housing risk.

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM's first quarter 2025 foreclosure activity, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus March 2025 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the first-quarter percentage of properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded 125 percent of their estimated market values, along with March 2025 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM powers innovation across industries with premium property data and analytics covering 158 million U.S. properties—99% of the population. Our multi-sourced real estate data includes property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, neighborhood and geospatial boundary information, all validated through a rigorous 20-step process and linked by a unique ATTOM ID.

From flexible delivery solutions—such as Property Data APIs, Bulk File Licenses, Cloud Delivery, Real Estate Market Trends—to AI-Ready datasets, ATTOM fuels smarter decision-making across industries including real estate, mortgage, insurance, government, and more.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
[email protected]

Data and Report Licensing:
[email protected]

SOURCE ATTOM