The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China Increases Sharply Again in April

Jun 14, 2010, 22:00 ET from The Conference Board

BEIJING, June 14 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.7 percent in April to 147.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in March and a 0.4 percent increase in February. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index this month.

Said Bill Adams, Resident Economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The LEI for China rose sharply from March to April primarily due to continued upward momentum from the real estate sector. Once the real estate effect on the LEI is accounted for, there is no strong basis for assuming accelerating growth. The sharp increase in the Floor Space Started component of the LEI may prove transitory as a result of controls on the real estate market implemented in mid April. Consumer expectations fell in April and new export orders have already been weakening for most of the past six months."

Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, a measure of current economic activity, increased 1.2 percent in April to 182.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March and a 1.8 percent increase in February. All five components contributed positively to the index this month.

The China LEI, launched May 17, joins the global portfolio of directly comparable leading indicators produced by The Conference Board. Tested and refined over four years, the China LEI is a unique and reliable metric that shows the current status of the Chinese economy and its pattern of growth over the short term, and signals approaching turning points. The China CEI measures current economic conditions on a monthly basis, helping to pinpoint cycles' beginnings and ends and illustrating current growth and the intensity of economic activity.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China.  Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China  

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, Spain, the Euro Area, Japan, Australia, Korea and Mexico.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

  • Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)

  • 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)

  • NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

  • Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

  • Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

  • NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/indicators.cfm

*The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2010

6-month


Feb

Mar

Apr

Oct to Apr






Leading Economic index (LEI)

142.9

144.6 p

147.1 p


Percent Change

0.4

1.2 p

1.7 p

4.8

Diffusion

50.0

66.7

66.7

83.3






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

179.1

179.9 p

182.1 p


Percent Change

1.8

0.4 p

1.2 p

6.2

Diffusion

70.0

60.0

100.0

100.0



n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

SOURCE The Conference Board



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