The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

Jul 14, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, July 14, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.1 percent in May to 109.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.6 percent increase in March.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in May, remaining at 105.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in April, and no change in March.

Despite a small decline in May, the LEI has improved substantially over the past six months and the strengths among its components are widespread. Meanwhile, the CEI has been improving very modestly over the same time period. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy should continue to expand in the near-term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods 
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2015




6-month


Mar


Apr


May


Nov to May










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

109.6

p

109.7

p

109.6

p



  Percent Change

0.6

p

0.1

p

-0.1

p

3.4

p

  Diffusion

85.7


78.6


57.1


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

105.2


105.5

r

105.5




  Percent Change

0.0

r

0.3

r

0.0


0.5


  Diffusion

37.5


100.0


50.0


100.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









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SOURCE The Conference Board



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