NEW YORK, June 20, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in May, remaining at 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.2 percent increase in March.
"The US LEI was unchanged in May, following three consecutive increases," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "Positive contributions from financial conditions and consumers' outlook offset the weakness in stock prices and the manufacturing sector. The yield spread's contribution to the LEI was neither positive nor negative. While the economic expansion is now entering its eleventh year, the longest in US history, the LEI clearly points to a moderation in growth towards 2 percent by year end."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.1 percent increase in March.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in May to 107.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in April and a 0.2 percent increase in March.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes |
||||||||
2019 |
6-month |
|||||||
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Nov to |
|||||
Leading Index |
111.7 |
r |
111.8 |
r |
111.8 |
p |
||
Percent Change |
0.2 |
r |
0.1 |
r |
0.0 |
p |
0.3 |
|
Diffusion |
70.0 |
60.0 |
60.0 |
50.0 |
||||
Coincident Index |
105.6 |
105.7 |
105.9 |
p |
||||
Percent Change |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
p |
0.7 |
|||
Diffusion |
75.0 |
75.0 |
87.5 |
75.0 |
||||
Lagging Index |
107.3 |
107.2 |
107.0 |
p |
||||
Percent Change |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
p |
1.0 |
|||
Diffusion |
50.0 |
35.7 |
21.4 |
85.7 |
||||
p Preliminary r Revised |
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Indexes equal 100 in 2016 |
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Source: The Conference Board |
SOURCE The Conference Board
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