Thirty Times More Companies Cut Headcount Because They Are Anticipating AI Value Versus Realizing Actual Value

Global study of 1,000+ executives from the Return on AI Institute finds organizations that measure AI value and train leaders and teams outperform peers by wide margins

BOULDER, Colo., March 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Return on AI Institute, Scaled Agile's applied AI research, best practices, and thought leadership partner, today released a report showing that while AI is delivering benefits across industries, only a minority of organizations have developed the capabilities needed to consistently capture meaningful economic value from their AI investments.

The study, "Economic Maturity for Artificial Intelligence: How Organizations Measure and Maximize Value from Artificial Intelligence," co-authored by Thomas H. Davenport, one of the world's leading authorities on AI and analytics, and Laks Srinivasan, a veteran AI transformation leader, details findings of a survey of 1,006 C-suite executives across 11 countries and 32 industries. While 90% of organizations report receiving value from AI, the research reveals a wide gap between those organizations capturing the most value and those that are not.

The report finds that organizations achieving the strongest results are distinguished less by the specific AI technologies they deploy and more by how systematically they train their workforce, develop leadership fluency in AI and measure the economic impact of their AI initiatives.

Key findings of the report include:

Workforce decisions are moving faster than realized AI impact

• Only 2% of organizations have made large headcount cuts tied to real AI implementation.
• Yet nearly 90% have already reduced or frozen hiring in anticipation of future AI productivity gains.

Measurement maturity is the single biggest differentiator in AI value

• Organizations that formally report AI value to boards or investors achieve high value at an 85% rate.
• Those that do not measure or report at all achieve it at just 15%.
• That 70-percentage-point gap is driven by how rigorously a company tracks, aggregates, and reports the economic impact of its AI investments."

Organizations that invest in both employee upskilling and leadership AI fluency see the most value from AI

• There is a 23-percentage-point advantage in achieving high value from AI when both employees and leadership undergo AI training.
• 58% of organizations still haven't trained employees in basic AI productivity and tool use.
• 29% acknowledge their leaders lack the understanding needed to drive AI value creation.

Generative AI is shifting the conversation from tools to systems

• Only 9% of organizations currently identify generative AI as their most valuable AI type, compared with 50% for analytical AI and 40% for rule-based automation, which have decades of operational maturity.
• 44% of executives say generative AI is the hardest AI type for which to measure ROI, reflecting how organizations are still learning how to integrate it into workflows and operating models.
• Emerging agentic AI systems are beginning to unlock greater value, with adopters 22% more likely to report achieving a great deal of AI value, suggesting the next wave of enterprise impact may come from AI systems that act, coordinate, and automate work - not just generate content.

The U.S. is underperforming relative to its AI reputation

• Despite being perceived as the global AI leader, only 38% of U.S. organizations report getting a "great deal" of value from AI.
• That's well below Germany, the UK, Australia, Japan, and the UAE, all of which exceed 50%, with virtually identical levels of employee training and AI experience.

"The technology works — 90% of organizations say so. What separates the leaders from everyone else isn't the AI itself. It's whether anyone has the discipline to measure what it's worth and the leadership fluency to act on what they find," said Laks Srinivasan, co-founder and CEO of the Return on AI Institute.

"We've studied technology adoption in organizations for decades. The pattern here is consistent: the technical capabilities arrive before the management systems to harness them. What's different with AI is how many consequential decisions — especially on workforce — organizations are making before those systems catch up," said Thomas H. Davenport, Distinguished Professor at Babson College, fellow of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, and co-founder of the Return on AI Institute.

The full report provides an in-depth analysis of the AI Economic Maturity Model, actionable recommendations for advancing through its six stages, and detailed breakdowns by industry, company size, geography, and AI type. To read the report, click here.

About the Return on AI Institute
The Return on AI (RoAI) Institute is a research-driven advisory firm founded by Thomas H. Davenport — one of the world's leading authorities on AI — and Laks Srinivasan, a veteran AI transformation leader. The Institute investigates a critical question — why do some organizations succeed with AI while most struggle? — and helps enterprises and governments maximize economic and social return on AI through proprietary research, evidence-based frameworks and methodologies, and hands-on strategic advisory and executive capability building. RoAI is Scaled Agile's applied AI research, best practices, and thought leadership partner. Its work has been featured in Harvard Business Review, MIT Sloan Management Review, and Forbes. Learn more at www.roaiinstitute.com.

About Scaled Agile, Inc.
Scaled Agile, Inc. is the provider of SAFe®, the world's most trusted system for business agility, and the creator of AI-Native, a transformation system that helps organizations upskill their workforce and scale AI from proof-of-concept to enterprise-wide impact. With over 2 million professionals trained across 60+ countries, Scaled Agile brings more than 15 years of enterprise transformation experience to the challenges of today's AI-driven world. Over 20,000 businesses and government agencies rely on SAFe and Scaled Agile's Global Partner Network to accelerate digital innovation. Learn more at scaledagile.com.

SOURCE Scaled Agile, Inc.