SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 27 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that July 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. is expected to be 1,042,543 units, an increase of 6% from this time last year and a jump of nearly 5% from June 2010 (on an unadjusted basis). July's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.8 million new car sales.
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The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,831 in July, which represents a 1% drop from June but a 4% increase from this time last year.
"In terms of SAAR, July is likely to be the best month for vehicle sales since the 'Cash-for-Clunkers' Program fueled August 2009," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insight for TrueCar.com. "The fact that retail sales are up despite the flat incentive spending indicates a marked improvement in consumer demand, which offers promise for a more robust second half recovery."
TrueCar.com is reporting the following about sales and incentive spending in July:
- Among the major manufacturers, GM will experience the biggest percentage gain in sales versus last July with 23.2%, followed by Hyundai/Kia at 14.2%. Toyota will be the only one within that group that will report a decline in year-over-year sales with a 4.4% drop.
- Fleet & rental sales are expected to make up only 16% of total industry sales, which is the lowest so far in 2010.
- The Japanese automakers surpassed the domestics in terms of year-over-year incentive spending changes, with the largest increase coming from Honda (60%) and Toyota (36%). The only domestic manufacturer to up spending was Ford (17%), while both GM (-1%) and Chrysler (-12%) both dialed back their incentives.
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for July:
Unit Sales Forecast |
||||
Manufacturer |
July 2010 Forecast |
Change vs. June 2010 |
Change vs. July 2009 |
|
Chrysler |
90,069 |
-2.6% |
1.3% |
|
Ford |
171,651 |
0.6% |
8.4% |
|
GM |
195,604 |
0.7% |
23.2% |
|
Honda |
119,333 |
11.9% |
4.0% |
|
Nissan |
75,058 |
16.2% |
4.5% |
|
Toyota |
167,184 |
18.9% |
-4.4% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
85,501 |
2.9% |
14.2% |
|
Market Share Forecast |
||||
Manufacturer |
July 2010 Forecast |
June 2010 |
July 2009 |
|
Chrysler |
8.6% |
9.4% |
8.9% |
|
Ford |
16.5% |
17.4% |
15.9% |
|
GM |
18.8% |
19.8% |
15.9% |
|
Honda |
11.4% |
10.8% |
11.5% |
|
Nissan |
7.2% |
6.6% |
7.2% |
|
Toyota |
16.0% |
14.3% |
17.5% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
8.2% |
8.5% |
7.5% |
|
Incentive Spending Forecast |
|||||
Manufacturer |
July 2010 Incentives |
Change vs. June 2010 |
Change vs. July 2009 |
Total Incentive Spending |
|
Chrysler |
$3,741 |
1.0% |
-11.7% |
$336,956,043 |
|
Ford |
$3,056 |
0.7% |
17.3% |
$524,532,721 |
|
GM |
$3,659 |
-3.6% |
-1.4% |
$716,366,812 |
|
Honda |
$2,114 |
-1.0% |
59.5% |
$252,287,030 |
|
Nissan |
$3,093 |
-3.3% |
18.3% |
$232,155,854 |
|
Toyota |
$1,992 |
0.5% |
36.3% |
$333,093,730 |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
$2,258 |
2.5% |
-22.3% |
$193,065,359 |
|
Industry |
$2,831 |
-1.3% |
3.8% |
$2,588,457,549 |
|
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is the authority in new car prices. We show car buyers and car dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in a specific local area. With TrueCar pricing, both new car buyers and new car dealers can know at any time what is considered a good or great price on a new car. Consumers no longer need to walk into a dealership partially informed and fully suspicious – using TrueCar they walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers benefit by TrueCar's real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price cars for increased sales, and ultimately gaining market share over other dealers. Our innovative new car pricing service is offered free of charge on our website at www.truecar.com, on our mobile site at mobile.truecar.com, and via syndication of our tools and pricing data to leading automotive research sites throughout the web.
About TrueCar Data
TrueCar obtains data directly from car dealers, respected dealer management system (DMS) providers, and well-known data aggregators within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more. TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem. Our data is among the most timely and comprehensive in the industry, as we are able to process most car sales within a week of the actual sales date, and have a substantial fraction on the site within 48 hours of the actual sale. TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
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Jesse Toprak
https://profnet.prnewswire.com/Subscriber/ExpertProfile.aspx?ei=94534
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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