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TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 16% for June 2021

Inventory Shortages are Starting to Create a Drag on Sales vs. Previous Months

TrueCar, Inc. Logo

News provided by

TrueCar, Inc.

Jun 30, 2021, 11:58 ET

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SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,287,536 units in June 2021, up 16% from a year ago but down 16% vs. May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.2 million, bouncing back from 13.0 million SAAR in June 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,133,299 units, an increase of 11% from a year ago and decrease of 17% from May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

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TrueCar June 2021 Sales Forecast
TrueCar June 2021 Sales Forecast

"We have been closely watching declining levels of new car inventory since the beginning of the year but until recently sales have remained strong due to overwhelming demand.  We still expect June to show strong gains compared to a year ago but we are seeing some softening compared to prior months," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "In addition to lower inventory, we continue to see a sharp downward trend in incentives and a corresponding increase in transaction prices which could sway some shoppers to remain on the fence this month," added Woolard.

"The chip shortage has complicated OEM operations in terms of shifting priorities around what vehicles to build and where to send them.  Looking at the second quarter compared to first quarter, we see large shifts in market share with the biggest benefactors being Honda, Hyundai and Kia," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Not all brands have been impacted equally, but the common denominator is that everyone wishes they had more vehicles to sell in the current environment."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

  • Total retail sales for June 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 16% from May 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for June 2021 are expected to be up 73% from a year ago and down 1% from May 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 33% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up 2% from May 2021.
  • Total SAAR is expected to increase 17% from a year ago from 13.0 million units to 15.2 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for June 2021 are expected to reach 4.0 million, up 9% from a year ago and even with May 2021. 
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for June 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

June 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

32,204

24,917

39,204

29.2%

29.2%

-17.9%

-14.6%

Daimler

24,075

26,681

29,145

-9.8%

-9.8%

-17.4%

-14.1%

Ford

112,307

157,951

160,520

-28.9%

-28.9%

-30.0%

-27.2%

GM

203,511

175,770

240,095

15.8%

15.8%

-15.2%

-11.8%

Honda

144,989

114,774

176,815

26.3%

26.3%

-18.0%

-14.7%

Hyundai

77,752

51,564

93,745

50.8%

50.8%

-17.1%

-13.7%

Kia

67,006

47,870

80,298

40.0%

40.0%

-16.6%

-13.2%

Nissan

85,474

65,290

110,374

30.9%

30.9%

-22.6%

-19.5%

Stellantis

147,000

137,902

182,966

6.6%

6.6%

-19.7%

-16.4%

Subaru

46,380

53,910

56,558

-14.0%

-14.0%

-18.0%

-14.7%

Tesla

23,562

11,150

28,790

111.3%

111.3%

-18.2%

-14.9%

Toyota

201,599

149,445

241,003

34.9%

34.9%

-16.3%

-13.0%

Volkswagen Group

59,281

45,831

72,527

29.3%

29.3%

-18.3%

-15.0%

Industry

1,287,536

1,113,464

1,586,748

15.6%

15.6%

-18.9%

-15.6%

















Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

31,038

24,466

38,534

26.9%

26.9%

-19.5%

-16.2%

Daimler

22,681

25,275

28,549

-10.3%

-10.3%

-20.6%

-17.4%

Ford

87,304

127,947

130,583

-31.8%

-31.8%

-33.1%

-30.5%

GM

163,665

155,853

209,419

5.0%

5.0%

-21.8%

-18.7%

Honda

142,378

113,881

176,073

25.0%

25.0%

-19.1%

-15.9%

Hyundai

71,545

50,397

88,278

42.0%

42.0%

-19.0%

-15.7%

Kia

59,466

46,652

77,311

27.5%

27.5%

-23.1%

-20.0%

Nissan

71,012

55,431

91,089

28.1%

28.1%

-22.0%

-18.9%

Stellantis

126,944

125,004

153,403

1.6%

1.6%

-17.2%

-13.9%

Subaru

45,535

52,363

54,449

-13.0%

-13.0%

-16.4%

-13.0%

Tesla

23,388

11,150

28,780

109.8%

109.8%

-18.7%

-15.5%

Toyota

176,279

143,753

212,734

22.6%

22.6%

-17.1%

-13.8%

Volkswagen Group

57,996

45,379

71,476

27.8%

27.8%

-18.9%

-15.6%

Industry

1,133,299

1,024,374

1,424,931

10.6%

10.6%

-20.5%

-17.3%

















Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

1,167

451

670

158.7%

158.7%

74.1%

81.1%

Daimler

1,394

1,406

596

-0.9%

-0.9%

133.8%

143.2%

Ford

25,003

30,004

29,937

-16.7%

-16.7%

-16.5%

-13.1%

GM

39,846

19,917

30,676

100.1%

100.1%

29.9%

35.1%

Honda

2,612

893

742

192.5%

192.5%

252.0%

266.1%

Hyundai

6,207

1,167

5,467

431.7%

431.7%

13.5%

18.1%

Kia

7,540

1,218

2,987

518.9%

518.9%

152.4%

162.5%

Nissan

14,462

9,859

19,285

46.7%

46.7%

-25.0%

-22.0%

Stellantis

20,056

12,898

29,563

55.5%

55.5%

-32.2%

-29.4%

Subaru

845

1,547

2,109

-45.4%

-45.4%

-59.9%

-58.3%

Tesla

174

-

10



1671.5%

1742.3%

Toyota

25,320

5,692

28,269

344.8%

344.8%

-10.4%

-6.8%

Volkswagen Group

1,285

452

1,051

184.2%

184.2%

22.3%

27.2%

Industry

154,237

89,090

161,817

73.1%

73.1%

-4.7%

-0.9%

















Fleet Penetration



Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change



BMW

3.6%

1.8%

1.7%

100.2%

112.0%



Daimler

5.8%

5.3%

2.0%

9.8%

183.1%



Ford

22.3%

19.0%

18.6%

17.2%

19.4%



GM

19.6%

11.3%

12.8%

72.8%

53.2%



Honda

1.8%

0.8%

0.4%

131.5%

329.3%



Hyundai

8.0%

2.3%

5.8%

252.6%

36.9%



Kia

11.3%

2.5%

3.7%

342.1%

202.5%



Nissan

16.9%

15.1%

17.5%

12.0%

-3.2%



Stellantis

13.6%

9.4%

16.2%

45.9%

-15.6%



Subaru

1.8%

2.9%

3.7%

-36.5%

-51.1%



Tesla

0.7%

0.0%

0.0%


2064.5%



Toyota

12.6%

3.8%

11.7%

229.8%

7.1%



Volkswagen Group

2.2%

1.0%

1.4%

119.7%

49.6%



Industry

12.0%

8.0%

10.2%

49.7%

17.5%



















Total Market Share





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual





BMW

2.5%

2.2%

2.5%





Daimler

1.9%

2.4%

1.8%





Ford

8.7%

14.2%

10.1%





GM

15.8%

15.8%

15.1%





Honda

11.3%

10.3%

11.1%





Hyundai

6.0%

4.6%

5.9%





Kia

5.2%

4.3%

5.1%





Nissan

6.6%

5.9%

7.0%





Stellantis

11.4%

12.4%

11.5%





Subaru

3.6%

4.8%

3.6%





Tesla

1.8%

1.0%

1.8%





Toyota

15.7%

13.4%

15.2%





Volkswagen Group

4.6%

4.1%

4.6%





















Retail Market Share





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual





BMW

2.7%

2.4%

2.7%





Daimler

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%





Ford

7.7%

12.5%

9.2%





GM

14.4%

15.2%

14.7%





Honda

12.6%

11.1%

12.4%





Hyundai

6.3%

4.9%

6.2%





Kia

5.2%

4.6%

5.4%





Nissan

6.3%

5.4%

6.4%





Stellantis

11.2%

12.2%

10.8%





Subaru

4.0%

5.1%

3.8%





Tesla

2.1%

1.1%

2.0%





Toyota

15.6%

14.0%

14.9%





Volkswagen Group

5.1%

4.4%

5.0%





















ATP





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM



BMW

$58,833

$58,915

$58,376

-0.1%

0.8%



Daimler

$58,215

$59,752

$60,160

-2.6%

-3.2%



Ford

$45,195

$43,368

$40,836

4.2%

10.7%



GM

$44,361

$39,838

$43,878

11.4%

1.1%



Honda

$31,254

$30,154

$31,322

3.6%

-0.2%



Hyundai

$30,415

$28,969

$29,871

5.0%

1.8%



Kia

$28,032

$24,849

$28,398

12.8%

-1.3%



Nissan

$31,177

$28,718

$30,732

8.6%

1.4%



Stellantis

$47,550

$42,381

$46,081

12.2%

3.2%



Subaru

$31,876

$30,228

$30,544

5.5%

4.4%



Toyota

$35,606

$34,161

$34,831

4.2%

2.2%



Volkswagen Group

$41,801

$38,808

$42,415

7.7%

-1.4%



Industry

$38,221

$36,489

$37,399

4.7%

2.2%











Incentives





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM



BMW

$4,415

$5,862

$4,814

-24.7%

-8.3%



Daimler

$3,533

$5,675

$3,650

-37.7%

-3.2%



Ford

$2,158

$4,311

$2,334

-49.9%

-7.5%



GM

$4,070

$5,682

$4,535

-28.4%

-10.3%



Honda

$1,874

$2,639

$2,133

-29.0%

-12.2%



Hyundai

$1,722

$2,509

$2,019

-31.4%

-14.7%



Kia

$2,336

$3,779

$2,483

-38.2%

-5.9%



Nissan

$3,747

$4,842

$3,698

-22.6%

1.3%



Stellantis

$3,159

$5,010

$3,892

-36.9%

-18.8%



Subaru

$1,203

$1,747

$1,299

-31.1%

-7.4%



Toyota

$1,886

$2,700

$2,246

-30.2%

-16.0%



Volkswagen Group

$3,646

$4,340

$3,846

-16.0%

-5.2%



Industry

$2,751

$4,076

$3,055

-32.5%

-10.0%











Incentives as % of ATP





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM



BMW

7.5%

9.9%

8.2%

-24.6%

-9.0%



Daimler

6.1%

9.5%

6.1%

-36.1%

0.0%



Ford

4.8%

9.9%

5.7%

-52.0%

-16.4%



GM

9.2%

14.3%

10.3%

-35.7%

-11.2%



Honda

6.0%

8.8%

6.8%

-31.5%

-12.0%



Hyundai

5.7%

8.7%

6.8%

-34.6%

-16.2%



Kia

8.3%

15.2%

8.7%

-45.2%

-4.7%



Nissan

12.0%

16.9%

12.0%

-28.7%

-0.1%



Stellantis

6.6%

11.8%

8.4%

-43.8%

-21.3%



Subaru

3.8%

5.8%

4.3%

-34.7%

-11.2%



Toyota

5.3%

7.9%

6.4%

-33.0%

-17.9%



Volkswagen Group

8.7%

11.2%

9.1%

-22.0%

-3.8%



Industry

7.2%

11.2%

8.2%

-35.6%

-11.9%











Revenue





Manufacturer

Jun 2021 Forecast

Jun 2020 Actual

May 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM



Industry

$49,210,883,063

$40,629,617,196

$59,342,414,537

21.1%

-17.1%



Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

103,360

53,029

77,718

94.9%

94.9%

33.0%

27.8%

Daimler

77,974

58,917

70,236

32.3%

32.3%

11.0%

6.7%

Ford

469,890

432,317

517,711

8.7%

8.7%

-9.2%

-12.8%

GM

682,425

489,264

639,406

39.5%

39.5%

6.7%

2.6%

Honda

478,286

293,502

347,091

63.0%

63.0%

37.8%

32.4%

Hyundai

252,314

145,307

175,352

73.6%

73.6%

43.9%

38.3%

Kia

217,481

125,392

159,550

73.4%

73.4%

36.3%

31.0%

Nissan

294,980

177,328

285,553

66.3%

66.3%

3.3%

-0.7%

Stellantis

497,629

368,674

467,285

35.0%

35.0%

6.5%

2.3%

Subaru

164,327

136,518

160,426

20.4%

20.4%

2.4%

-1.6%

Tesla

68,952

25,500

69,300

170.4%

170.4%

-0.5%

-4.4%

Toyota

680,691

398,029

608,670

71.0%

71.0%

11.8%

7.5%

Volkswagen Group

202,707

115,911

161,510

74.9%

74.9%

25.5%

20.6%

Industry

4,386,442

2,936,014

3,910,569

49.4%

49.4%

12.2%

7.8%

















Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

99,615

51,771

72,760

92.4%

92.4%

36.9%

31.6%

Daimler

73,459

56,977

67,872

28.9%

28.9%

8.2%

4.0%

Ford

365,278

353,531

400,049

3.3%

3.3%

-8.7%

-12.2%

GM

548,811

436,702

538,643

25.7%

25.7%

1.9%

-2.1%

Honda

469,672

290,458

342,284

61.7%

61.7%

37.2%

31.9%

Hyundai

232,172

141,757

160,915

63.8%

63.8%

44.3%

38.7%

Kia

193,008

122,163

135,461

58.0%

58.0%

42.5%

36.9%

Nissan

245,070

151,039

198,975

62.3%

62.3%

23.2%

18.4%

Stellantis

429,734

325,670

386,483

32.0%

32.0%

11.2%

6.9%

Subaru

161,333

133,629

152,898

20.7%

20.7%

5.5%

1.4%

Tesla

68,443

25,253

68,892

171.0%

171.0%

-0.7%

-4.5%

Toyota

595,200

385,981

538,221

54.2%

54.2%

10.6%

6.3%

Volkswagen Group

198,312

114,244

144,757

73.6%

73.6%

37.0%

31.7%

Industry

3,860,980

2,698,065

3,341,830

43.1%

43.1%

15.5%

11.0%

















Total Market Share






Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021





BMW

2.4%

1.8%

2.0%





Daimler

1.8%

2.0%

1.8%





Ford

10.7%

14.7%

13.2%





GM

15.6%

16.7%

16.4%





Honda

10.9%

10.0%

8.9%





Hyundai

5.8%

4.9%

4.5%





Kia

5.0%

4.3%

4.1%





Nissan

6.7%

6.0%

7.3%





Stellantis

11.3%

12.6%

11.9%





Subaru

3.7%

4.6%

4.1%





Tesla

1.6%

0.9%

1.8%





Toyota

15.5%

13.6%

15.6%





Volkswagen Group

4.6%

3.9%

4.1%





















Retail Market Share






Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021





BMW

2.6%

1.9%

2.2%





Daimler

1.9%

2.1%

2.0%





Ford

9.5%

13.1%

12.0%





GM

14.2%

16.2%

16.1%





Honda

12.2%

10.8%

10.2%





Hyundai

6.0%

5.3%

4.8%





Kia

5.0%

4.5%

4.1%





Nissan

6.3%

5.6%

6.0%





Stellantis

11.1%

12.1%

11.6%





Subaru

4.2%

5.0%

4.6%





Tesla

1.8%

0.9%

2.1%





Toyota

15.4%

14.3%

16.1%





Volkswagen Group

5.1%

4.2%

4.3%





















ATP





Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change


BMW

$58,846

$59,422

$59,429

-1.0%


-1.0%


Daimler

$59,848

$59,899

$61,827

-0.1%


-3.2%


Ford

$42,999

$43,424

$43,983

-1.0%


-2.2%


GM

$43,593

$40,079

$41,539

8.8%


4.9%


Honda

$31,376

$30,070

$31,549

4.3%


-0.5%


Hyundai

$29,740

$28,642

$30,114

3.8%


-1.2%


Kia

$28,237

$25,009

$28,328

12.9%


-0.3%


Nissan

$30,709

$28,789

$29,419

6.7%


4.4%


Stellantis

$45,974

$42,259

$42,751

8.8%


7.5%


Subaru

$30,908

$30,481

$30,485

1.4%


1.4%


Toyota

$35,089

$34,336

$34,706

2.2%


1.1%


Volkswagen Group

$43,035

$40,319

$43,780

6.7%


-1.7%


Industry

$37,639

$36,584

$37,493

2.9%


0.4%










Incentives





Manufacturer

Q2 2021

Q2 2020

Q1 2021

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change


BMW

$4,708

$6,043

$5,124

-22.1%


-8.1%


Daimler

$3,660

$6,357

$4,184

-42.4%


-12.5%


Ford

$2,467

$4,369

$3,513

-43.5%


-29.8%


GM

$4,424

$5,752

$4,761

-23.1%


-7.1%


Honda

$2,100

$2,758

$2,371

-23.9%


-11.5%


Hyundai

$2,057

$2,602

$2,453

-20.9%


-16.1%


Kia

$2,464

$3,818

$2,816

-35.5%


-12.5%


Nissan

$3,739

$4,791

$3,774

-22.0%


-0.9%


Stellantis

$3,648

$5,256

$4,636

-30.6%


-21.3%


Subaru

$1,278

$1,749

$1,349

-26.9%


-5.2%


Toyota

$2,218

$2,708

$2,658

-18.1%


-16.5%


Volkswagen Group

$3,808

$4,419

$3,942

-13.8%


-3.4%


Industry

$3,016

$4,147

$3,517

-27.3%


-14.3%










(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

Related Links

https://www.truecar.com

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