TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 97% for April 2021 Compared to Prior Year When Sales Bottomed Out Due to the Pandemic
Incentive Spend to Reach Lowest Point in Five Years
SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,402,135 units in April 2021, up 97% from a year ago and down 12.6% from March 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million, bouncing back from 8.7 million SAAR in April 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,259,036 units, an increase of 94.5% from a year ago and a decrease of 11.8% from March 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
"April of last year was the first full month of COVID-19's impact on the day-to-day lives of Americans and the economy, and saw vehicle sales plummet to the lowest point during the pandemic. Despite the inventory challenges that linger, seeing total and retail sales up nearly 100% in one year is a hopeful and exciting milestone for the auto industry and economy," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.
"The domestics kicked up their 0% APR for 84-month sales promotions last April to spur demand which is why they were not down as much as others this time last year and are up double digits compared with most other brands that are up triple digits year-over-year," added Woolard.
"Inventory remains tight and incentives are down nearly 30% from last year so consumers need to be savvy and ready to make some concessions in order to find the car they want at the price they want to pay," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Expanding the search criteria and removing filters will expand the options. And as used vehicle prices continue to rise and the gap between new and used vehicles continues to narrow, consumers should consider cross-shopping new and used to get the best value."
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total retail sales for April 2021 are expected to be up 95% from a year ago and down 11.8% from March 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for April 2021 are expected to be up 125% from a year ago and down 20% from March 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 27.8% from last year and is the lowest since April 2016.
- Average transaction price is projected to be flat from a year ago and down 0.2% from March 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to increase 97% from a year ago from 8.72 million units to 17.1 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for April 2021 are expected to reach 3.4 million, up 58% from a year ago and down 6% from March 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.4%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2021 is 73 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 68 months.
April 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | |
BMW | 21,526 | 8,255 | 31,888 | 160.8% | 160.8% | -32.5% | -32.5% | |
Daimler | 20,230 | 11,278 | 24,651 | 79.4% | 79.4% | -17.9% | -17.9% | |
Ford | 193,297 | 119,591 | 213,300 | 61.6% | 61.6% | -9.4% | -9.4% | |
GM | 197,754 | 137,573 | 245,606 | 43.7% | 43.7% | -19.5% | -19.5% | |
Honda | 146,576 | 57,751 | 148,538 | 153.8% | 153.8% | -1.3% | -1.3% | |
Hyundai | 72,732 | 34,774 | 78,409 | 109.2% | 109.2% | -7.2% | -7.2% | |
Kia | 48,548 | 31,705 | 66,523 | 53.1% | 53.1% | -27.0% | -27.0% | |
Nissan | 95,624 | 46,689 | 128,334 | 104.8% | 104.8% | -25.5% | -25.5% | |
Stellantis | 153,837 | 92,053 | 183,333 | 67.1% | 67.1% | -16.1% | -16.1% | |
Subaru | 77,491 | 30,620 | 65,726 | 153.1% | 153.1% | 17.9% | 17.9% | |
Tesla | 28,521 | 6,200 | 23,050 | 360.0% | 360.0% | 23.7% | 23.7% | |
Toyota | 229,351 | 85,163 | 256,485 | 169.3% | 169.3% | -10.6% | -10.6% | |
Volkswagen Group | 59,552 | 28,347 | 70,276 | 110.1% | 110.1% | -15.3% | -15.3% | |
Industry | 1,402,135 | 710,827 | 1,604,983 | 97.3% | 97.3% | -12.6% | -12.6% | |
Retail Unit Sales | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | |
BMW | 21,212 | 8,108 | 31,340 | 161.6% | 161.6% | -32.3% | -32.3% | |
Daimler | 18,955 | 10,684 | 24,147 | 77.4% | 77.4% | -21.5% | -21.5% | |
Ford | 144,336 | 96,580 | 173,386 | 49.4% | 49.4% | -16.8% | -16.8% | |
GM | 171,110 | 121,681 | 213,654 | 40.6% | 40.6% | -19.9% | -19.9% | |
Honda | 145,611 | 57,301 | 147,917 | 154.1% | 154.1% | -1.6% | -1.6% | |
Hyundai | 69,752 | 33,984 | 75,339 | 105.3% | 105.3% | -7.4% | -7.4% | |
Kia | 47,644 | 30,898 | 64,048 | 54.2% | 54.2% | -25.6% | -25.6% | |
Nissan | 80,001 | 39,648 | 105,841 | 101.8% | 101.8% | -24.4% | -24.4% | |
Stellantis | 137,611 | 82,948 | 151,435 | 65.9% | 65.9% | -9.1% | -9.1% | |
Subaru | 75,607 | 29,741 | 63,276 | 154.2% | 154.2% | 19.5% | 19.5% | |
Tesla | 28,415 | 6,200 | 23,042 | 358.3% | 358.3% | 23.3% | 23.3% | |
Toyota | 209,026 | 81,857 | 226,861 | 155.4% | 155.4% | -7.9% | -7.9% | |
Volkswagen Group | 58,990 | 28,085 | 69,254 | 110.0% | 110.0% | -14.8% | -14.8% | |
Industry | 1,259,036 | 647,164 | 1,427,357 | 94.5% | 94.5% | -11.8% | -11.8% | |
Fleet Unit Sales | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | |
BMW | 314 | 147 | 548 | 114.4% | 114.4% | -42.6% | -42.6% | |
Daimler | 1,275 | 594 | 504 | 114.4% | 114.4% | 152.8% | 152.8% | |
Ford | 48,961 | 23,011 | 39,914 | 112.8% | 112.8% | 22.7% | 22.7% | |
GM | 26,644 | 15,892 | 31,952 | 67.7% | 67.7% | -16.6% | -16.6% | |
Honda | 965 | 450 | 621 | 114.4% | 114.4% | 55.4% | 55.4% | |
Hyundai | 2,980 | 790 | 3,070 | 277.2% | 277.2% | -2.9% | -2.9% | |
Kia | 904 | 807 | 2,475 | 12.0% | 12.0% | -63.5% | -63.5% | |
Nissan | 15,623 | 7,041 | 22,493 | 121.9% | 121.9% | -30.5% | -30.5% | |
Stellantis | 16,226 | 9,105 | 31,898 | 78.2% | 78.2% | -49.1% | -49.1% | |
Subaru | 1,884 | 879 | 2,450 | 114.4% | 114.4% | -23.1% | -23.1% | |
Tesla | 106 | - | 8 | 1255.1% | 1255.1% | |||
Toyota | 20,325 | 3,306 | 29,624 | 514.8% | 514.8% | -31.4% | -31.4% | |
Volkswagen Group | 562 | 262 | 1,022 | 114.4% | 114.4% | -45.1% | -45.1% | |
Industry | 143,098 | 63,663 | 177,626 | 124.8% | 124.8% | -19.4% | -19.4% | |
Fleet Penetration | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | |||
BMW | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | -17.8% | -15.0% | |||
Daimler | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 19.5% | 208.0% | |||
Ford | 25.3% | 19.2% | 18.7% | 31.6% | 35.4% | |||
GM | 13.5% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 3.6% | |||
Honda | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | -15.5% | 57.5% | |||
Hyundai | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 80.3% | 4.7% | |||
Kia | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | -26.8% | -49.9% | |||
Nissan | 16.3% | 15.1% | 17.5% | 8.3% | -6.8% | |||
Stellantis | 10.5% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 6.6% | -39.4% | |||
Subaru | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | -15.3% | -34.8% | |||
Tesla | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 995.1% | ||||
Toyota | 8.9% | 3.9% | 11.6% | 128.3% | -23.3% | |||
Volkswagen Group | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | -35.2% | |||
Industry | 10.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 14.0% | -7.8% | |||
Total Market Share | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | |||||
BMW | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | |||||
Daimler | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | |||||
Ford | 13.8% | 16.8% | 13.3% | |||||
GM | 14.1% | 19.4% | 15.3% | |||||
Honda | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | |||||
Hyundai | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | |||||
Kia | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | |||||
Nissan | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | |||||
Stellantis | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | |||||
Subaru | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | |||||
Tesla | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | |||||
Toyota | 16.4% | 12.0% | 16.0% | |||||
Volkswagen Group | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | |||||
95.9% | 97.1% | 95.7% | ||||||
Retail Market Share | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | |||||
BMW | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | |||||
Daimler | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | |||||
Ford | 11.5% | 14.9% | 12.1% | |||||
GM | 13.6% | 18.8% | 15.0% | |||||
Honda | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | |||||
Hyundai | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | |||||
Kia | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | |||||
Nissan | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | |||||
Stellantis | 10.9% | 12.8% | 10.6% | |||||
Subaru | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | |||||
Tesla | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |||||
Toyota | 16.6% | 12.6% | 15.9% | |||||
Volkswagen Group | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | |||||
96.0% | 97.0% | 95.9% | ||||||
ATP | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
BMW | $58,542 | $58,415 | $59,151 | 0.2% | -1.0% | |||
Daimler | $60,307 | $60,359 | $61,211 | -0.1% | -1.5% | |||
Ford | $43,808 | $43,335 | $44,143 | 1.1% | -0.8% | |||
GM | $42,981 | $41,246 | $41,335 | 4.2% | 4.0% | |||
Honda | $31,280 | $29,960 | $31,519 | 4.4% | -0.8% | |||
Hyundai | $28,864 | $27,742 | $29,186 | 4.0% | -1.1% | |||
Kia | $28,511 | $25,671 | $28,248 | 11.1% | 0.9% | |||
Nissan | $30,217 | $29,127 | $29,520 | 3.7% | 2.4% | |||
Stellantis | $44,386 | $42,491 | $42,777 | 4.5% | 3.8% | |||
Subaru | $30,408 | $31,118 | $30,382 | -2.3% | 0.1% | |||
Toyota | $34,500 | $34,159 | $34,361 | 1.0% | 0.4% | |||
Volkswagen Group | $44,401 | $41,836 | $44,103 | 6.1% | 0.7% | |||
Industry | $37,144 | $37,161 | $37,215 | 0.0% | -0.2% | |||
-$17.6 | -$72 | |||||||
Incentives | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
BMW | $4,559 | $6,031 | $4,997 | -24.4% | -8.8% | |||
Daimler | $4,187 | $7,289 | $4,221 | -42.6% | -0.8% | |||
Ford | $2,935 | $4,406 | $3,042 | -33.4% | -3.5% | |||
GM | $4,699 | $5,809 | $4,836 | -19.1% | -2.8% | |||
Honda | $2,294 | $2,825 | $2,382 | -18.8% | -3.7% | |||
Hyundai | $2,392 | $2,731 | $2,541 | -12.4% | -5.8% | |||
Kia | $2,609 | $4,016 | $2,817 | -35.0% | -7.4% | |||
Nissan | $3,047 | $4,774 | $3,331 | -36.2% | -8.5% | |||
Stellantis | $3,753 | $5,622 | $4,640 | -33.2% | -19.1% | |||
Subaru | $1,272 | $1,765 | $1,275 | -27.9% | -0.2% | |||
Toyota | $2,476 | $2,419 | $2,774 | 2.4% | -10.7% | |||
Volkswagen Group | $4,001 | $4,480 | $4,001 | -10.7% | 0.0% | |||
Industry | $3,102 | $4,297 | $3,424 | -27.8% | -9.4% | |||
-$1,195 | -$322 | |||||||
|
Incentives as % of ATP | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
BMW | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | -24.6% | -7.8% | |||
Daimler | 6.9% | 12.1% | 6.9% | -42.5% | 0.7% | |||
Ford | 6.7% | 10.2% | 6.9% | -34.1% | -2.8% | |||
GM | 10.9% | 14.1% | 11.7% | -22.4% | -6.6% | |||
Honda | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | -22.2% | -3.0% | |||
Hyundai | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | -15.8% | -4.8% | |||
Kia | 9.2% | 15.6% | 10.0% | -41.5% | -8.2% | |||
Nissan | 10.1% | 16.4% | 11.3% | -38.5% | -10.6% | |||
Stellantis | 8.5% | 13.2% | 10.8% | -36.1% | -22.0% | |||
Subaru | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | -26.2% | -0.3% | |||
Toyota | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 1.4% | -11.1% | |||
Volkswagen Group | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | -15.9% | -0.7% | |||
Industry | 8.4% | 11.6% | 9.2% | -27.8% | -9.2% | |||
Revenue | ||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr 2021 Forecast | Apr 2020 Actual | Mar 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
Industry | $52,080,395,420 | $26,415,189,900 | $59,729,977,426 | 97.2% | -12.8% | |||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: [email protected]
TrueCar Public Relations Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
[email protected]
424.258.8694
SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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