TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales
Electric vehicle leases spike in response to government tax credits
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,117,400 units in February 2023, up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.5 million, down 3.8% from February 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 928,386 units, up 1% from a year ago and up almost 3% from January 2023.
"Consumers and manufacturers alike are employing strategies to address affordability challenges," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Fleet sales are boosting volume and manufacturers are intensifying their incentive spend to offset ballooning interest rates and lingering higher prices. Many consumers are considering a used alternative or front-loading their purchase with higher down payments to reduce outstanding interest."
"Over the last month we've seen OEMs respond to Tesla's steep price reductions by increasing traditional incentives, keeping in line with how OEMs typically act to promote vehicles and increase demand," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "We're also seeing an abrupt surge in electric vehicle leases for vehicles and consumers that had previously been excluded from tax credit eligibility."
Additional February Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 33% from a year ago and up 16% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and about even with January 2023.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 3.8% from a year ago at about 14.5 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for February 2023 are expected to reach 2.8 million, down 8% from a year ago and up 5% from January 2023.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to January 2023 at 7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10.5%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2023 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
24,611 |
26,074 |
25,571 |
-5.6 % |
-5.6 % |
-3.8 % |
-3.8 % |
Daimler |
21,874 |
19,237 |
23,560 |
13.7 % |
13.7 % |
-7.2 % |
-7.2 % |
Ford |
162,296 |
128,229 |
145,070 |
26.6 % |
26.6 % |
11.9 % |
11.9 % |
GM |
184,632 |
161,705 |
183,090 |
14.2 % |
14.2 % |
0.8 % |
0.8 % |
Honda |
87,526 |
84,394 |
84,514 |
3.7 % |
3.7 % |
3.6 % |
3.6 % |
Hyundai |
59,997 |
55,906 |
55,906 |
7.3 % |
7.3 % |
7.3 % |
7.3 % |
Kia |
56,142 |
49,182 |
51,983 |
14.2 % |
14.2 % |
8.0 % |
8.0 % |
Nissan |
63,622 |
61,674 |
60,251 |
3.2 % |
3.2 % |
5.6 % |
5.6 % |
Stellantis |
111,261 |
136,580 |
108,538 |
-18.5 % |
-18.5 % |
2.5 % |
2.5 % |
Subaru |
44,877 |
44,866 |
44,373 |
0.0 % |
0.0 % |
1.1 % |
1.1 % |
Tesla |
51,478 |
42,742 |
53,875 |
20.4 % |
20.4 % |
-4.4 % |
-4.4 % |
Toyota |
154,961 |
160,645 |
136,759 |
-3.5 % |
-3.5 % |
13.3 % |
13.3 % |
Volkswagen Group |
44,912 |
36,355 |
44,086 |
23.5 % |
23.5 % |
1.9 % |
1.9 % |
Industry |
1,117,400 |
1,058,243 |
1,065,720 |
5.6 % |
5.6 % |
4.8 % |
4.8 % |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
22,155 |
25,575 |
23,917 |
-13.4 % |
-13.4 % |
-7.4 % |
-7.4 % |
Daimler |
19,520 |
18,355 |
22,304 |
6.3 % |
6.3 % |
-12.5 % |
-12.5 % |
Ford |
116,666 |
95,896 |
102,232 |
21.7 % |
21.7 % |
14.1 % |
14.1 % |
GM |
139,763 |
129,069 |
151,662 |
8.3 % |
8.3 % |
-7.8 % |
-7.8 % |
Honda |
85,921 |
81,318 |
83,130 |
5.7 % |
5.7 % |
3.4 % |
3.4 % |
Hyundai |
56,284 |
55,344 |
48,421 |
1.7 % |
1.7 % |
16.2 % |
16.2 % |
Kia |
52,968 |
44,264 |
48,580 |
19.7 % |
19.7 % |
9.0 % |
9.0 % |
Nissan |
54,975 |
49,519 |
50,111 |
11.0 % |
11.0 % |
9.7 % |
9.7 % |
Stellantis |
73,159 |
108,737 |
76,215 |
-32.7 % |
-32.7 % |
-4.0 % |
-4.0 % |
Subaru |
43,419 |
43,459 |
42,123 |
-0.1 % |
-0.1 % |
3.1 % |
3.1 % |
Tesla |
45,066 |
42,291 |
46,960 |
6.6 % |
6.6 % |
-4.0 % |
-4.0 % |
Toyota |
137,684 |
143,332 |
126,423 |
-3.9 % |
-3.9 % |
8.9 % |
8.9 % |
Volkswagen Group |
39,257 |
35,270 |
40,939 |
11.3 % |
11.3 % |
-4.1 % |
-4.1 % |
Industry |
928,386 |
918,918 |
903,204 |
1.0 % |
1.0 % |
2.8 % |
2.8 % |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2,456 |
499 |
1,654 |
391.9 % |
391.9 % |
48.5 % |
48.5 % |
Daimler |
2,354 |
882 |
1,256 |
167.0 % |
167.0 % |
87.5 % |
87.5 % |
Ford |
45,630 |
32,333 |
42,838 |
41.1 % |
41.1 % |
6.5 % |
6.5 % |
GM |
44,869 |
32,636 |
31,428 |
37.5 % |
37.5 % |
42.8 % |
42.8 % |
Honda |
1,605 |
3,076 |
1,384 |
-47.8 % |
-47.8 % |
15.9 % |
15.9 % |
Hyundai |
3,713 |
562 |
7,485 |
561.2 % |
561.2 % |
-50.4 % |
-50.4 % |
Kia |
3,174 |
4,918 |
3,403 |
-35.5 % |
-35.5 % |
-6.7 % |
-6.7 % |
Nissan |
8,647 |
12,155 |
10,140 |
-28.9 % |
-28.9 % |
-14.7 % |
-14.7 % |
Stellantis |
38,102 |
27,843 |
32,323 |
36.8 % |
36.8 % |
17.9 % |
17.9 % |
Subaru |
1,458 |
1,407 |
2,250 |
3.6 % |
3.6 % |
-35.2 % |
-35.2 % |
Tesla |
6,412 |
451 |
6,915 |
1320.6 % |
1320.6 % |
-7.3 % |
-7.3 % |
Toyota |
17,277 |
17,313 |
10,336 |
-0.2 % |
-0.2 % |
67.1 % |
67.1 % |
Volkswagen Group |
5,655 |
1,085 |
3,147 |
421.4 % |
421.4 % |
79.7 % |
79.7 % |
Industry |
185,048 |
139,127 |
158,974 |
33.0 % |
33.0 % |
16.4 % |
16.4 % |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
10.0 % |
1.9 % |
6.5 % |
421.1 % |
54.3 % |
Daimler |
10.8 % |
4.6 % |
5.3 % |
134.8 % |
101.9 % |
Ford |
28.1 % |
25.2 % |
29.5 % |
11.5 % |
-4.8 % |
GM |
24.3 % |
20.2 % |
17.2 % |
20.4 % |
41.6 % |
Honda |
1.8 % |
3.6 % |
1.6 % |
-49.7 % |
12.0 % |
Hyundai |
6.2 % |
1.0 % |
13.4 % |
516.1 % |
-53.8 % |
Kia |
5.7 % |
10.0 % |
6.5 % |
-43.5 % |
-13.6 % |
Nissan |
13.6 % |
19.7 % |
16.8 % |
-31.0 % |
-19.2 % |
Stellantis |
34.2 % |
20.4 % |
29.8 % |
68.0 % |
15.0 % |
Subaru |
3.2 % |
3.1 % |
5.1 % |
3.6 % |
-35.9 % |
Tesla |
12.5 % |
1.1 % |
12.8 % |
1079.5 % |
-3.0 % |
Toyota |
11.1 % |
10.8 % |
7.6 % |
3.5 % |
47.5 % |
Volkswagen Group |
12.6 % |
3.0 % |
7.1 % |
322.0 % |
76.4 % |
Industry |
16.6 % |
13.1 % |
14.9 % |
26.0 % |
11.0 % |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
BMW |
2.2 % |
2.5 % |
2.4 % |
Daimler |
2.0 % |
1.8 % |
2.2 % |
Ford |
14.5 % |
12.1 % |
13.6 % |
GM |
16.5 % |
15.3 % |
17.2 % |
Honda |
7.8 % |
8.0 % |
7.9 % |
Hyundai |
5.4 % |
5.3 % |
5.2 % |
Kia |
5.0 % |
4.6 % |
4.9 % |
Nissan |
5.7 % |
5.8 % |
5.7 % |
Stellantis |
10.0 % |
12.9 % |
10.2 % |
Subaru |
4.0 % |
4.2 % |
4.2 % |
Tesla |
4.6 % |
4.0 % |
5.1 % |
Toyota |
13.9 % |
15.2 % |
12.8 % |
Volkswagen Group |
4.0 % |
3.4 % |
4.1 % |
95.6 % |
95.2 % |
95.5 % |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
BMW |
2.4 % |
2.8 % |
2.6 % |
Daimler |
2.1 % |
2.0 % |
2.5 % |
Ford |
12.6 % |
10.4 % |
11.3 % |
GM |
15.1 % |
14.0 % |
16.8 % |
Honda |
9.3 % |
8.8 % |
9.2 % |
Hyundai |
6.1 % |
6.0 % |
5.4 % |
Kia |
5.7 % |
4.8 % |
5.4 % |
Nissan |
5.9 % |
5.4 % |
5.5 % |
Stellantis |
7.9 % |
11.8 % |
8.4 % |
Subaru |
4.7 % |
4.7 % |
4.7 % |
Tesla |
4.9 % |
4.6 % |
5.2 % |
Toyota |
14.8 % |
15.6 % |
14.0 % |
Volkswagen Group |
4.2 % |
3.8 % |
4.5 % |
95.5 % |
94.9 % |
95.6 % |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$69,154 |
$62,124 |
$68,588 |
11.3 % |
0.8 % |
Daimler |
$77,646 |
$74,332 |
$77,908 |
4.5 % |
-0.3 % |
Ford |
$54,790 |
$48,605 |
$55,288 |
12.7 % |
-0.9 % |
GM |
$51,523 |
$51,406 |
$51,789 |
0.2 % |
-0.5 % |
Honda |
$37,841 |
$37,270 |
$37,080 |
1.5 % |
2.1 % |
Hyundai |
$37,830 |
$37,550 |
$37,393 |
0.7 % |
1.2 % |
Kia |
$34,631 |
$34,475 |
$34,324 |
0.5 % |
0.9 % |
Nissan |
$38,779 |
$33,794 |
$37,671 |
14.8 % |
2.9 % |
Stellantis |
$55,580 |
$52,848 |
$55,172 |
5.2 % |
0.7 % |
Subaru |
$33,950 |
$34,202 |
$34,879 |
-0.7 % |
-2.7 % |
Toyota |
$42,711 |
$40,902 |
$41,895 |
4.4 % |
1.9 % |
Volkswagen Group |
$48,536 |
$47,916 |
$49,193 |
1.3 % |
-1.3 % |
Industry |
$45,645 |
$43,382 |
$45,576 |
5.2 % |
0.2 % |
$2,263 |
$69 |
||||
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$2,376 |
$2,582 |
$2,571 |
-7.9 % |
-7.6 % |
Daimler |
$2,044 |
$2,243 |
$1,842 |
-8.9 % |
11.0 % |
Ford |
$1,283 |
$1,737 |
$1,121 |
-26.2 % |
14.4 % |
GM |
$1,887 |
$1,963 |
$1,964 |
-3.8 % |
-3.9 % |
Honda |
$1,189 |
$1,159 |
$1,335 |
2.7 % |
-10.9 % |
Hyundai |
$875 |
$950 |
$856 |
-7.9 % |
2.2 % |
Kia |
$684 |
$1,239 |
$688 |
-44.8 % |
-0.5 % |
Nissan |
$1,994 |
$1,789 |
$1,855 |
11.5 % |
7.5 % |
Stellantis |
$2,246 |
$2,570 |
$2,046 |
-12.6 % |
9.7 % |
Subaru |
$983 |
$856 |
$917 |
14.8 % |
7.2 % |
Toyota |
$676 |
$1,058 |
$683 |
-36.1 % |
-1.0 % |
Volkswagen Group |
$1,969 |
$1,874 |
$1,843 |
5.0 % |
6.8 % |
Industry |
$1,522 |
$1,657 |
$1,396 |
-8.1 % |
9.0 % |
-$135 |
$126 |
||||
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
3.4 % |
4.2 % |
3.7 % |
-17.3 % |
-8.3 % |
Daimler |
2.6 % |
3.0 % |
2.4 % |
-12.8 % |
11.3 % |
Ford |
2.3 % |
3.6 % |
2.0 % |
-34.5 % |
15.4 % |
GM |
3.7 % |
3.8 % |
3.8 % |
-4.1 % |
-3.4 % |
Honda |
3.1 % |
3.1 % |
3.6 % |
1.1 % |
-12.7 % |
Hyundai |
2.3 % |
2.5 % |
2.3 % |
-8.5 % |
1.0 % |
Kia |
2.0 % |
3.6 % |
2.0 % |
-45.0 % |
-1.4 % |
Nissan |
5.1 % |
5.3 % |
4.9 % |
-2.9 % |
4.4 % |
Stellantis |
4.0 % |
4.9 % |
3.7 % |
-16.9 % |
8.9 % |
Subaru |
2.9 % |
2.5 % |
2.6 % |
15.7 % |
10.1 % |
Toyota |
1.6 % |
2.6 % |
1.6 % |
-38.8 % |
-2.9 % |
Volkswagen Group |
4.1 % |
3.9 % |
3.7 % |
3.7 % |
8.3 % |
Industry |
3.3 % |
3.8 % |
3.1 % |
-12.7 % |
8.9 % |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2023 Forecast |
Feb 2022 Actual |
Jan 2023 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$51,003,836,774 |
$45,908,429,294 |
$48,570,898,969 |
11.1 % |
5.0 % |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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