Increased affordability expected for used car prices in the month of May
SANTA MONICA, Calif, May 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022, down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14 million, down 17% from May 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,062,452 units, down 18% from a year ago and up 7% from April 2022.
"This month we're continuing to see a struggle for supply among the industry however we're also now starting to see signs of demand adjusting. Higher interest rates combined with higher fuel prices present a headwind to demand cooling off, which may explain why average used list prices are decreasing, down 1.6% in May versus April 2022," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "In terms of price adjustments, compared to the beginning of the month we are seeing more vehicles being marked down than for the same period last year. This is truer for used where we are seeing over half of our used listings getting a downward price adjustment since the beginning of the month. This trend is led by the used full-size vehicle segment."
"This month we're not expecting fleet inventory to be down as much as retail, partly due to deferred fleet demand and the domestic OEM brands generally being in a better inventory situation than imported brands," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and up 34% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 59% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 14% from a year ago and comparable to April 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 17% from a year ago at 14 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for May 2022 are expected to reach 3.1 million, down 19% from a year ago and down 8% from April 2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.1% compared to April 2022 at 4.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for May 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
29,590 |
39,204 |
28,678 |
-24.5% |
-18.2% |
3.2% |
16.1% |
Daimler |
32,497 |
29,145 |
31,065 |
11.5% |
20.8% |
4.6% |
17.7% |
Ford |
171,910 |
160,520 |
175,942 |
7.1% |
16.0% |
-2.3% |
9.9% |
GM |
196,463 |
240,095 |
200,972 |
-18.2% |
-11.4% |
-2.2% |
10.0% |
Honda |
84,399 |
176,815 |
93,250 |
-52.3% |
-48.3% |
-9.5% |
1.8% |
Hyundai |
63,145 |
93,745 |
66,707 |
-32.6% |
-27.0% |
-5.3% |
6.5% |
Kia |
54,806 |
80,298 |
59,063 |
-31.7% |
-26.1% |
-7.2% |
4.4% |
Nissan |
64,910 |
110,374 |
74,668 |
-41.2% |
-36.3% |
-13.1% |
-2.2% |
Stellantis |
139,300 |
182,966 |
143,078 |
-23.9% |
-17.5% |
-2.6% |
9.5% |
Subaru |
47,475 |
56,558 |
45,748 |
-16.1% |
-9.1% |
3.8% |
16.7% |
Tesla |
47,852 |
28,790 |
48,432 |
66.2% |
80.1% |
-1.2% |
11.2% |
Toyota |
188,637 |
241,003 |
186,510 |
-21.7% |
-15.2% |
1.1% |
13.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
51,907 |
72,527 |
45,949 |
-28.4% |
-22.5% |
13.0% |
27.1% |
Industry |
1,221,790 |
1,586,748 |
1,254,597 |
-23.0% |
-16.6% |
-2.6% |
9.6% |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
29,025 |
37,474 |
28,168 |
-22.5% |
-16.1% |
3.0% |
15.9% |
Daimler |
31,451 |
27,938 |
30,430 |
12.6% |
22.0% |
3.4% |
16.3% |
Ford |
127,065 |
124,561 |
143,183 |
2.0% |
10.5% |
-11.3% |
-0.2% |
GM |
156,341 |
208,133 |
174,521 |
-24.9% |
-18.6% |
-10.4% |
0.8% |
Honda |
83,371 |
170,217 |
92,860 |
-51.0% |
-46.9% |
-10.2% |
1.0% |
Hyundai |
63,040 |
86,835 |
66,001 |
-27.4% |
-21.4% |
-4.5% |
7.5% |
Kia |
50,714 |
72,881 |
56,866 |
-30.4% |
-24.6% |
-10.8% |
0.3% |
Nissan |
53,846 |
87,667 |
61,645 |
-38.6% |
-33.5% |
-12.7% |
-1.7% |
Stellantis |
111,246 |
162,041 |
118,354 |
-31.3% |
-25.6% |
-6.0% |
5.7% |
Subaru |
46,221 |
55,170 |
44,042 |
-16.2% |
-9.2% |
4.9% |
18.1% |
Tesla |
47,312 |
28,790 |
48,415 |
64.3% |
78.0% |
-2.3% |
9.9% |
Toyota |
170,085 |
204,785 |
164,585 |
-16.9% |
-10.0% |
3.3% |
16.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
51,118 |
67,738 |
45,293 |
-24.5% |
-18.2% |
12.9% |
27.0% |
Industry |
1,062,452 |
1,402,283 |
1,120,603 |
-24.2% |
-17.9% |
-5.2% |
6.7% |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
565 |
1,730 |
510 |
-67.3% |
-64.6% |
10.7% |
24.6% |
Daimler |
1,046 |
1,207 |
635 |
-13.3% |
-6.1% |
64.6% |
85.2% |
Ford |
44,845 |
35,959 |
32,759 |
24.7% |
35.1% |
36.9% |
54.0% |
GM |
40,122 |
31,962 |
26,451 |
25.5% |
36.0% |
51.7% |
70.6% |
Honda |
1,028 |
6,598 |
390 |
-84.4% |
-83.1% |
163.6% |
196.5% |
Hyundai |
105 |
6,910 |
706 |
-98.5% |
-98.4% |
-85.1% |
-83.3% |
Kia |
4,092 |
7,417 |
2,197 |
-44.8% |
-40.2% |
86.2% |
109.5% |
Nissan |
11,064 |
22,707 |
13,023 |
-51.3% |
-47.2% |
-15.0% |
-4.4% |
Stellantis |
28,054 |
20,925 |
24,724 |
34.1% |
45.2% |
13.5% |
27.7% |
Subaru |
1,254 |
1,388 |
1,706 |
-9.6% |
-2.1% |
-26.5% |
-17.3% |
Tesla |
540 |
- |
17 |
3170.3% |
3579.1% |
||
Toyota |
18,552 |
36,218 |
21,925 |
-48.8% |
-44.5% |
-15.4% |
-4.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
789 |
4,789 |
656 |
-83.5% |
-82.2% |
20.2% |
35.2% |
Industry |
159,338 |
184,465 |
133,994 |
-13.6% |
-6.4% |
18.9% |
33.8% |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
1.9% |
4.4% |
1.8% |
-56.7% |
7.3% |
Daimler |
3.2% |
4.1% |
2.0% |
-22.3% |
57.4% |
Ford |
26.1% |
22.4% |
18.6% |
16.4% |
40.1% |
GM |
20.4% |
13.3% |
13.2% |
53.4% |
55.2% |
Honda |
1.2% |
3.7% |
0.4% |
-67.4% |
191.2% |
Hyundai |
0.2% |
7.4% |
1.1% |
-97.7% |
-84.3% |
Kia |
7.5% |
9.2% |
3.7% |
-19.2% |
100.7% |
Nissan |
17.0% |
20.6% |
17.4% |
-17.1% |
-2.3% |
Stellantis |
20.1% |
11.4% |
17.3% |
76.1% |
16.5% |
Subaru |
2.6% |
2.5% |
3.7% |
7.6% |
-29.1% |
Tesla |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
3209.9% |
|
Toyota |
9.8% |
15.0% |
11.8% |
-34.6% |
-16.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
1.5% |
6.6% |
1.4% |
-77.0% |
6.4% |
Industry |
13.0% |
11.6% |
10.7% |
12.2% |
22.1% |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
BMW |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.3% |
Daimler |
2.7% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
Ford |
14.1% |
10.1% |
14.0% |
GM |
16.1% |
15.1% |
16.0% |
Honda |
6.9% |
11.1% |
7.4% |
Hyundai |
5.2% |
5.9% |
5.3% |
Kia |
4.5% |
5.1% |
4.7% |
Nissan |
5.3% |
7.0% |
6.0% |
Stellantis |
11.4% |
11.5% |
11.4% |
Subaru |
3.9% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
Tesla |
3.9% |
1.8% |
3.9% |
Toyota |
15.4% |
15.2% |
14.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.2% |
4.6% |
3.7% |
96.0% |
95.3% |
95.7% |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
BMW |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
Daimler |
3.0% |
2.0% |
2.7% |
Ford |
12.0% |
8.9% |
12.8% |
GM |
14.7% |
14.8% |
15.6% |
Honda |
7.8% |
12.1% |
8.3% |
Hyundai |
5.9% |
6.2% |
5.9% |
Kia |
4.8% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
Nissan |
5.1% |
6.3% |
5.5% |
Stellantis |
10.5% |
11.6% |
10.6% |
Subaru |
4.4% |
3.9% |
3.9% |
Tesla |
4.5% |
2.1% |
4.3% |
Toyota |
16.0% |
14.6% |
14.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.8% |
4.8% |
4.0% |
96.1% |
95.1% |
95.9% |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$67,092 |
$60,621 |
$68,146 |
10.7% |
-1.5% |
Daimler |
$65,924 |
$61,985 |
$68,337 |
6.4% |
-3.5% |
Ford |
$51,037 |
$43,388 |
$49,070 |
17.6% |
4.0% |
GM |
$50,566 |
$46,352 |
$50,420 |
9.1% |
0.3% |
Honda |
$37,352 |
$32,145 |
$36,550 |
16.2% |
2.2% |
Hyundai |
$36,958 |
$31,800 |
$37,190 |
16.2% |
-0.6% |
Kia |
$35,091 |
$30,179 |
$34,719 |
16.3% |
1.1% |
Nissan |
$36,156 |
$31,031 |
$35,810 |
16.5% |
1.0% |
Stellantis |
$53,370 |
$46,593 |
$53,466 |
14.5% |
-0.2% |
Subaru |
$35,583 |
$32,307 |
$34,908 |
10.1% |
1.9% |
Toyota |
$39,073 |
$36,641 |
$39,957 |
6.6% |
-2.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
$46,455 |
$43,928 |
$47,011 |
5.8% |
-1.2% |
Industry |
$44,254 |
$38,694 |
$44,043 |
14.4% |
0.5% |
$5,560 |
$211 |
||||
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$1,117 |
$4,814 |
$1,309 |
-76.8% |
-14.6% |
Daimler |
$1,452 |
$3,650 |
$1,354 |
-60.2% |
7.2% |
Ford |
$1,435 |
$2,352 |
$1,458 |
-39.0% |
-1.6% |
GM |
$1,677 |
$4,535 |
$1,926 |
-63.0% |
-12.9% |
Honda |
$905 |
$2,133 |
$960 |
-57.6% |
-5.7% |
Hyundai |
$704 |
$2,019 |
$775 |
-65.1% |
-9.2% |
Kia |
$619 |
$2,483 |
$669 |
-75.1% |
-7.5% |
Nissan |
$1,381 |
$3,698 |
$1,595 |
-62.7% |
-13.5% |
Stellantis |
$1,892 |
$3,892 |
$1,925 |
-51.4% |
-1.7% |
Subaru |
$737 |
$1,299 |
$719 |
-43.2% |
2.5% |
Toyota |
$818 |
$2,246 |
$844 |
-63.6% |
-3.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
$1,155 |
$3,846 |
$1,252 |
-70.0% |
-7.8% |
Industry |
$1,251 |
$3,055 |
$1,327 |
-59.1% |
-5.8% |
-$1,804 |
-$77 |
||||
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
1.7% |
7.9% |
1.9% |
-79.0% |
-13.3% |
Daimler |
2.2% |
5.9% |
2.0% |
-62.6% |
11.2% |
Ford |
2.8% |
5.4% |
3.0% |
-48.1% |
-5.4% |
GM |
3.3% |
9.8% |
3.8% |
-66.1% |
-13.2% |
Honda |
2.4% |
6.6% |
2.6% |
-63.5% |
-7.7% |
Hyundai |
1.9% |
6.3% |
2.1% |
-70.0% |
-8.6% |
Kia |
1.8% |
8.2% |
1.9% |
-78.6% |
-8.5% |
Nissan |
3.8% |
11.9% |
4.5% |
-68.0% |
-14.3% |
Stellantis |
3.5% |
8.4% |
3.6% |
-57.5% |
-1.5% |
Subaru |
2.1% |
4.0% |
2.1% |
-48.5% |
0.6% |
Toyota |
2.1% |
6.1% |
2.1% |
-65.8% |
-0.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
2.5% |
8.8% |
2.7% |
-71.6% |
-6.6% |
Industry |
2.8% |
7.9% |
3.0% |
-64.2% |
-6.2% |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
May 2022 Forecast |
May 2021 Actual |
Apr 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$54,068,972,589 |
$61,398,057,586 |
$55,256,423,309 |
-11.9% |
-2.1% |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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