Trust in Virginia increased significantly at the start of the pandemic before starting a long decline to series lows in 2023.

ROANOKE, Va., Sept. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Roanoke College announces the Virginia Trust Index rebounded slightly in August 2023 from a series low in May. The August value halted a multi-year decline in trust, coming off series highs early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Between May 2020 and May 2021, the Virginia Trust Index was significantly higher than pre-pandemic values as people rallied together during an uncertain period. Growing frustrations with COVID-19-related mandates created discord in communities, dragging trust down between the middle of 2021 and the present. 

Trust in Virginia

The most recent reading of the three questions pertaining to trust in the commonwealth was in August 2023. Less than one-third of respondents believe that most people can be trusted while almost two-thirds say that you cannot be too careful; although a small share, more Virginians believe that most people can be trusted than in the U.S. as a whole, where 26% believe that to be the case.

With respect to most people being fair and helpful, less than a majority believe this to be true. Forty-eight percent believe that most people would try to be fair rather than take advantage of you, a value slightly higher than the national share of 44%. Forty-seven percent report that most of the time, people try and be helpful compared to 50% who believe others are mostly looking out for themselves; 43% believe others to be helpful most of the time at the national level.

Virginia Trust Index 

Until May 2020, the Trust Index was relatively stable. At the onset of the pandemic, the Trust Index jumped almost 20 points to 119.7. It remained elevated for a year before a multi-year decline to a series low in May 2023 (86.4). The index rebounded to 92.0 in August 2023. 

The Virginia Trust Index provides a look at trust throughout the pandemic. Why did trust increase at the start of the pandemic? The significant increase in trust that persisted between May 2020 and May 2021 is likely due to a we-are-in-this-together attitude. Despite frustrations over pandemic-related restrictions such as closures of non-essential businesses and mask mandates, Virginians relied on each other for help, and a greater share found each other to be fair, helpful and trustworthy. The steady decline in trust after May 2021 likely reflects growing frustrations with continued COVID-19-related restrictions such as mask mandates, a divide over newer vaccine mandates and general political discord.

Analysis 

"Trust in the commonwealth was relatively stable for years before the pandemic. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, trust jumped by almost 20 points to a series high and remained elevated for a year," said Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, John S. Shannon Professor of Economics and Senior Analyst at the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. "Trust then began a steady decline over the next two years, hitting a series low in May 2023. A sudden increase in trust is not uncommon during a crisis as people rally together. What is curious about the pandemic is the subsequent rapid decline from those highs. As the we-are-in-this-together attitude dissipated, frustrations over COVID-19-related mandates, including vaccine mandates, created divides across communities, reducing our trust in one another."

Methodology 

Interviewing for quarterly Roanoke College Polls is conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, generally in February, May, August, and November, with a sample of completed interviews ranging between 650 and 700 from random telephone calls to Virginians and a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. Cell phones constitute 50-55% of the completed phone interviews. Marketing Systems Group provided the telephone dialing frame, and Lucid, LLC facilitated the online panel. 

Questions answered by the samples are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.0 percent at the 95% confidence level.. 

A copy of the questions and all toplines may be found here.

SOURCE Roanoke College