Behavioral Study Finds Retailers' Delivery Defaults Miss How Online Shoppers Actually Decide to Buy

Using novel research methods that go beyond traditional surveys, the State of Speed study finds that delivery date clarity and 7-day/week logistics consistently drive higher conversions and repeat purchases.

CHANTILLY, Va., Sept. 8, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- OnTrac today released The State of Speed, a research study built on novel 'Decision Mirror' research methods designed to surface overlooked drivers of consumer conversion. By linking shopper behavior patterns with retailer benchmarks, the study finds that capabilities like predictive delivery dates, 7-day carrier services, and weekend fulfillment are consistently tied to higher conversion and repeat purchase rates—yet remain underutilized across most brands' logistics strategies.

Unlike traditional surveys, the study uses behavioral prompts, peer comparisons, and performance cohorts to surface what really drives shopper behavior and retail outcomes. By mapping consumer decisions against actual retailer performance, the study avoids the stated-preference bias issues with typical market surveys and reveals which delivery practices consistently boost conversion, loyalty, and customer value.

The findings show where delivery makes the biggest impact on ecommerce outcomes—and how many retailers are still leaving revenue on the table:

Delivery Defaults and Missed Opportunities

• 88% of retailers still show delivery ranges like "4–6 business days" at checkout, even though shoppers are 2× more likely to abandon carts when shown vague delivery timing.
• 84% of consumers have used expedited shipping in the past six months, and 37% have sought out weekend delivery—suggesting that delivery flexibility is now the baseline.
• 65% of retailers report no change in their standard delivery speeds over the past 24 months; 59% are not expanding fulfillment networks, while 23% are consolidating.
• 37% of consumers plan to reduce overall spending this year, intensifying competition for fewer ecommerce dollars.

What Top-Performing Brands Are Doing Differently

• More than half of retailers using 7-day/week last mile carrier services saw improvement in Net Promoter Score (NPS), customer lifetime value, and a decrease in abandonment rate.
• Brands in the top 50th percentile for conversion, repeat purchase, and NPS were 2× more likely to use predictive delivery dates and over 3× more likely to operate warehouses on a seven-day schedule (either year-round or seasonally).
• Retailers adopting predictive delivery dates were half as likely to expand fulfillment networks and one-third as likely to introduce new premium shipping options.

"This landmark study confirms what many retailers have felt but lacked the structure to act on: that delivery defaults often reflect operational realities more than customer needs," said Vijay Ramachandran, VP Marketing, Product Strategy & Marketplaces at OnTrac. "It shows where assumptions about speed, precision, and shopper intent break down—and where leading brands are rethinking delivery as a revenue lever, not just a cost center."

The study introduces four purchase drivers—Urgent, Appointment-Driven, Opportunistic, and Discretionary—capturing the varied delivery mindsets driving online purchases amid a rapidly changing ecommerce logistics market. This shift is shaping how OnTrac works with merchants—not by offering one answer to delivery, but by supporting the full range of shopper priorities revealed in the research. The company is announcing an expansion of its delivery portfolio to help merchants serve the full range of these purchase drivers:

• OnTrac Express adds a faster, more cost-effective delivery option for time-sensitive orders—reaching shoppers coast-to-coast with 2 and 3-day speeds.
• OnTrac Ground Essentials offers a lower-cost delivery option for discretionary and promotional purchases—ideal for shoppers who don't mind waiting in exchange for free/discounted shipping offers at lower thresholds.
• OnTrac's 7-Day Play program combines predictive delivery dates, 7-day/week carrier service, and weekend fulfillment options—giving retailers more control over when orders arrive and more ways to convert shoppers throughout the week.

"Retailers have known delivery impacts growth—but until now, the drivers behind that impact weren't always clear," said Ramachandran. "This research gave us the structure to act, and we're using it to bring new capabilities to market that align with how shoppers actually buy—not just how delivery used to work."

The full State of Speed report is available now at www.ontrac.com/state-of-speed-report. OnTrac is providing private briefings on the research and the company's new service announcements at Parcel Forum, September 8-10; shippers interested in a briefing at the event can reach out to [email protected].  

About OnTrac
OnTrac is the parcel carrier of choice for last-mile ecommerce deliveries, helping retailers and shippers build a competitive advantage through faster transit times, lower costs, and coast-to-coast coverage. The OnTrac delivery network reaches more than 70% of the U.S. population across 35 states and Washington, D.C., providing retailers with a reliable alternative to traditional shipping services. With over 65 years of experience, OnTrac is a trusted partner for leading ecommerce brands seeking greater flexibility and efficiency in their supply chains. For more information, visit www.ontrac.com.

SOURCE OnTrac