First National Realty Partners Forecasts Continued Resilience in U.S. Retail Market Entering 2026

FNRP Notes Supply Constraints, Necessity-Based Demand, and Improving Capital Conditions Supporting Open-Air Retail

RED BANK, N.J., Jan. 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- First National Realty Partners (FNRP), a leading national private equity commercial real estate firm, expects the U.S. retail sector to remain resilient entering 2026, driven by shifting consumer behavior and a historic supply-demand imbalance in open-air retail.

FNRP's leadership points to an alignment of strong operating fundamentals and favorable supply-demand dynamics, as capital rotates toward asset classes with durable demand and consistent performance.

"Heading into 2026, we feel open-air retail is well-positioned," said Michael Hazinski, Chief Investment Officer at FNRP. "The sector continues to benefit from historically strong operating fundamentals, including record occupancy and rental growth, supported by limited new construction. The supply-demand dynamic for quality open-air space remains favorable relative to other property sectors."

Strategic Resilience in Consumer Behavior

Despite macroeconomic uncertainty and moderating discretionary spending, FNRP anticipates that necessity-based retail will remain stable. As spending shifts toward essential categories, grocery-anchored centers are positioned to benefit from consistent traffic and demand.

"Consumers are reducing spending in discretionary categories such as travel and luxury, and focusing more on everyday grocery spending," said Sam Collier, Chief Revenue Officer at FNRP. "This supports consistent traffic at grocery-anchored centers and reflects a broader shift toward value-oriented spending, which continues to benefit discount and off-price retailers."

A Shifting Financial Landscape

FNRP believes that a moderate decline in interest rates, combined with increased lender willingness to extend higher loan-to-value ratios, will provide a supportive backdrop for the retail sector. These factors may support valuations and contribute to cap rate compression.

The firm expects increased transaction activity as sidelined capital begins to re-enter the market. With significant capital formation seeking deployment into U.S. real estate, easing interest rates are expected to improve liquidity and facilitate market activity.

Navigating the "Maturity Wall"

A key component of the 2026 outlook is the approaching "maturity wall" in commercial real estate debt as a result of active transaction years in 2021-2022. While upcoming loan maturities present challenges for some owners, FNRP views the environment as an opportunity for well-capitalized investors.

"The availability of debt and equity will help borrowers address upcoming maturities through refinancing, recapitalization or asset sales," Hazinski added. "Loan maturities are likely to create acquisition opportunities through forced sales of otherwise strong assets with outdated capital structures, contributing to increased transaction activity as capital conditions improve."

FNRP continues to prioritize grocery-anchored, high-traffic open-air retail assets that align with long-term fundamentals and favorable market dynamics.

Note: An investment in commercial real estate is speculative and subject to risk, including the risk that all your investment may be lost. Any representations concerning investing in commercial real estate reflect our belief concerning the representations and may or may not come to be realized. These materials may contain "forward looking statements" and actual results may differ from any expectations, projections, or predictions made based upon such forward looking statements. Securities are only available to verified accredited investors who can bear the loss of their investment.   

About First National Realty Partners

First National Realty Partners (FNRP) provides accredited investors with access to institutional-quality commercial real estate, specializing in necessity-based retail nationwide. From acquisition to disposition, FNRP oversees the entire investment lifecycle through its vertically integrated platform. Leveraging top in-house talent in legal, acquisitions, leasing, and other key areas, FNRP creates sustainable value for its investors. For more information, please visit www.fnrpusa.com.

Contact:
Jessica DeMarino
[email protected]

SOURCE First National Realty Partners, LLC