- The annual report explores this year's global private markets landscape, analyzing performance trends, liquidity dynamics, the impact of AI and highlighting compelling opportunities across private credit and secondaries.
- Hamilton Lane predicts investors will rethink portfolios and adjust expectations, as irreversible shifts are underway.
CONSHOHOCKEN, Pa., March 11, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Hamilton Lane (Nasdaq: HLNE), a leading global private markets investment management firm, today published its annual Market Overview, a comprehensive, data-driven review and analysis of private markets investment activity over the prior year, as well as predictions for the year ahead. This year's Market Overview comes as the global investment environment is experiencing a period of profound uncertainty and structural change, with the report predicting that the next five years may reshape markets more dramatically than any recent period and as a result, investors must focus less on certainty and more on manager selection, resilience and adaptability.
Key findings from the report:
AI Reshapes the Investment Landscape
- The report highlights that AI is now the single most important determinant of returns and investment activity. Public markets are highly concentrated in a small group of AI-linked companies, with a particular focus on LLMs, while private markets – specifically venture capital – can provide broader exposure.
Secondaries in First
- This is a market with strong underlying dynamics and tailwinds. Both GP‑ and LP‑led secondary markets remain robust, supported by a relatively slow exit environment, LP desire to rebalance and shed "non-core" relationships, and the encouraging early performance of GP-led secondary deals. Supply continues to outpace capital, creating attractive entry pricing and offering investors portfolio‑level flexibility and faster deployment. Representing only ~2% of NAV, this market has room to grow.
The Silver Age of Private Credit
- Hamilton Lane does not believe there is a private credit bubble. The private credit forces that have been reshaping the credit landscape globally have only grown during a bull market for credit, and the market is showing limited signs of stress. Private credit is also expected to be more resilient across cycles, holding up better than broadly syndicated or bank‑held loans. It has outperformed its public benchmark every year for the last 24 years, and over the last 10 years has outperformed by hundreds of basis points.
Key Metrics: Performance, Distributions and Valuations
- Private markets performance in more recent years lags due to an unusually strong run of public equity performance. The question is whether the Mag 7 stocks driving the bulk of that performance will continue their climb in a rapidly-changing world. Private equity shows long-term outperformance in most periods, while infrastructure and private credit have been the relative bright spots recently, and the report highlights private equity's value as a diversification tool amid increasingly concentrated AI-driven public markets.
- Data suggests private equity and secondary-focused evergreen funds outperform closed-end fund peers across one- and three-year periods. This runs counter to the narrative that investors may sacrifice returns for a friendlier structure and the option for liquidity. Still, this is a young market and early returns can be both higher and more volatile.
- 2025 marked the second highest year on record for aggregate distributions, yet the rate of distribution activity in private equity and real assets remained subdued, reflecting a cautious exit environment.
- The valuation multiples of unrealized deals from the 2021 – 2022 cohort have increased over their hold periods, causing some to raise concerns about valuations. The report supports the belief that on average, valuations remain aligned with fundamentals and valuation increases in listed assets.
Mario Giannini, Executive Co-Chairman and author of the Market Overview, commented: "We are at a critical moment for global investing, as geopolitical fragmentation, tariff tensions, shifting monetary conditions and rapid technological disruption – especially artificial intelligence – set the stage for increasing volatility. This Pandora's box that has been opened cannot be shut, and we expect profound changes ahead as these factors play out. Investment success will depend on the ability to adapt to new vehicles, liquidity models and market dynamics."
Access the full 2026 Hamilton Lane Market Overview.
About Hamilton Lane
Hamilton Lane (Nasdaq: HLNE) is one of the largest private markets investment firms globally, providing innovative solutions to institutional and private wealth investors around the world. Dedicated exclusively to private markets investing for more than 30 years, the firm currently employs approximately 780 professionals operating in offices throughout North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Hamilton Lane has $1.0 trillion in assets under management and supervision, composed of $146.1 billion in discretionary assets and $871.5 billion in non-discretionary assets, as of December 31, 2025. Hamilton Lane specializes in building flexible investment programs that provide clients access to the full spectrum of private markets strategies, sectors and geographies. For more information, please visit our website or follow us on LinkedIn.
About Cobalt LP
Cobalt LP, Hamilton Lane's online, proprietary private markets analytics platform, provides clients tools to derive and customize advanced analytics related to portfolio performance and exposures, including benchmarks and forecasts. It provides access to what we believe is the most comprehensive and timely database available in the private markets. The database encompasses data on more than 69,000 funds across 63 vintage years as of December 31, 2025.
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