IAB 2026 Outlook Study Forecasts 9.5% Growth in U.S. Ad Spend, Fueled by Digital Growth, Major Cyclical Events and Accelerating Adoption of Agentic AI

Five of the Top Six Marketer Focus Areas in 2026 Are AI-Driven as Priorities Shift from Acquisition to Performance and Retention

NEW YORK, Jan. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Amid the industry's rapid transition from AI experimentation to scaled execution, the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), the leading trade association for the digital advertising ecosystem, today released its annual 2026 Outlook Study, "A Snapshot into U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth." Based on insights from more than 200 brands and agency buyers, IAB's study forecasts 9.5% year-over-year growth in U.S. ad spend, accelerated by major cyclical events and a clear shift toward performance-led strategies and the increasing use of agentic AI in shaping how marketing decisions are planned, activated, and optimized.

"Our report shows that in this growth cycle, innovation and experimentation are firmly taking priority as the market is being structurally reimagined," said David Cohen, CEO, IAB. "The encouraging news is that buyers are still looking at 2026 as a year of growth despite a lot of potentially destabilizing forces. The industry is working with AI-powered tools that are constantly improving and are delivering both efficiency and effectiveness to marketers. We remain encouraged and optimistic about the opportunities in the year ahead."

The Next Phase of AI: From Experimentation to Agentic Execution

AI has become the defining force shaping marketing priorities in 2026, with advertisers rapidly embedding the technology across planning, activation, and measurement. The report finds that five of the six top areas of increased focus for advertisers are now directly tied to AI including the proliferation of autonomous and agentic solutions, underscoring how quickly these capabilities have moved from emerging tools to core industry infrastructure.

As agentic AI-driven media planning and campaign execution accelerates, advertisers are placing greater emphasis on measurement and accountability, with cross-platform measurement rising to 72%, up from 64% year over year, reflecting the need to connect AI-orchestrated implementation with outcomes. 

These priorities show how buyers are rapidly recalibrating around autonomous decisioning, optimization and planning systems – with two-thirds now focused on agentic AI for ad buying and campaign execution. This shift is further underscored by the fact that 73% of marketers are now prioritizing content optimized for AI-generated answers, revealing how AI is shaping not just delivery, but the structure of creative and search visibility across platforms.

"AI is no longer a siloed initiative – it's the connective tissue that links media, measurement, creative, and customer experience," said Chris Bruderle, Vice President, Industry Insights & Content Strategy, IAB. "But what's changing in 2026 is how AI is being deployed – not just as a tool but as an intelligent partner coordinating campaigns in real time. Agentic AI is moving us toward fully autonomous systems that can plan, activate and optimize with speed and scale."

Digital Channels Lead Growth as Cyclical Events Cushion Linear TV Decline

With total U.S. ad spend projected to grow 9.5% in 2026, digital continues to outpace the broader market, with double-digit gains expected across social media (+14.6%), connected TV (+13.8%), and commerce media (+12.1%). These channels are increasingly central to marketers' performance strategies, powered by AI-driven targeting and measurement innovations.

Meanwhile, linear TV is forecasted to decline by 1.7%, a slower rate than in previous years, buoyed by a unique alignment of major media events. The Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and U.S. midterm elections are expected to deliver temporary spikes in viewership and advertiser demand, offering short-term stabilization to an otherwise contracting channel.

Buyers Grapple with AI Learning Curve and Evolving Consumer Behavior as Growth Priorities Shift

A new hierarchy of marketing priorities reflects evolving consumer behavior and the AI learning curve, as buyers balance near-term performance pressures with longer-term shifts in how strategies are built and optimized. Adapting to changing consumer habits is now the top investment challenge (44%), surpassing macroeconomic factors, while 38% of buyers cite understanding generative AI as a major challenge, up 14 points from 2024, underscoring the need for deeper AI fluency and strategic application.

While customer acquisition remains the top objective for buyers (54%), that figure has declined 10 points year over year, indicating shifting priorities. At the same time, the focus on driving repeat purchases (25%) has grown steadily, and nearly doubled since 2024 (13%). As advertisers increasingly integrate agentic AI to manage budget pacing, audience planning, and campaign optimization, retention strategies are becoming more efficient – and more scalable. This reflects a broader shift toward retention-driven growth among mid-size and large advertisers, who are seeking more predictable and profitable outcomes.

"Brands are clearly rebalancing their growth strategies as acquisition costs rise and first-party data ecosystems mature," added Bruderle. "AI – particularly agentic AI – is poised to enable marketers to activate those data assets more intelligently, driving personalization, loyalty, and repeat purchase at scale. With commerce media, clean rooms, CRM onboarding, and loyalty programs now reaching millions of known customers, repeat purchase is becoming a primary growth engine — not just a support tactic."

The official "2026 Outlook Study: A Snapshot into U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth," is available here for download.

About IAB
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) empowers the media and marketing industries to thrive in the digital economy. Its membership comprises more than 700 leading media companies, brands, agencies, and the technology firms responsible for selling, delivering, and optimizing digital ad marketing campaigns. The trade group fields critical research on interactive advertising, while also educating brands, agencies, and the wider business community on the importance of digital marketing. In affiliation with the IAB Tech Lab, IAB develops technical standards and solutions. IAB is committed to professional development and elevating the knowledge, skills, expertise, and collaboration of the workforce across the industry. Through the work of its public policy office in Washington, D.C., the trade association advocates for its members and promotes the value of the interactive advertising industry to legislators and policymakers. Founded in 1996, IAB is headquartered in New York City.

SOURCE Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)