Maryland Comptroller and University of Maryland's Smith School Release Federal Spending Scenarios and Dashboard

New analysis demonstrates how federal job and spending reductions impact economic picture for Maryland

ANNAPOLIS, Md., Jan. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Comptroller of Maryland, in collaboration with the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, has released a new scenario analysis, demonstrating the estimated, direct impact of spending and job cuts for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) on Maryland jobs, wages, grants, and contracts. The scenario analysis is a follow-up to the joint Impact of Federal Government Spending and Jobs on the Maryland Economy, published in June 2025. These new case studies quantify the implemented and projected impacts from reductions at HHS and USAID since the start of the second Trump Administration.  

Maryland's economy is deeply connected to federal activity. The Comptroller's previous report found that in FY2024, the federal government directed $150 billion to the state through wages and retirement income, contracts, grants, and direct payments. Data showed that the federal government employed at least 229,000 Maryland residents. These numbers reflect the most recently available federal spending and jobs data, prior to the extreme cuts made by the Trump Administration beginning in early 2025.  

The most recent report closely examines the cuts announced to the HHS subagencies headquartered in Maryland, in 2025: the National Institutes of Health and Food and Drug Administration in Montgomery County, as well as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in Baltimore County. Data sets show that HHS spent $30 billion in Maryland during the 2024 fiscal year (FY 2024), supporting 40,749 jobs located in the state and employing 35,080 Maryland residents. 

Last year, the federal government signaled substantial HHS workforce reductions, and agency-specific reductions to the FDA (18%), NIH (6%), and the Centers for Medicaid Services (1%), which, if fully implemented, could lead to an estimated 2,919 jobs held by Maryland residents being lost from these three subagencies alone. HHS employees living in Maryland are concentrated in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George's counties.

The analysis also found that the closure of USAID removed a significant funding stream for the state, eliminating the $548 million the agency spent directly in Maryland and 1,213 jobs once held by Marylanders. When accounting for Maryland residents employed by USAID's private contractors across Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, the report estimates an additional $502 million in lost wages for 3,700 residents.

A third analysis prepared for the report estimated spending and job cuts resulting from the planned relocation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's research center in Prince George's County. However, the federal government ultimately reversed the closure that was announced last July, as part of a larger USDA reorganization plan. The report's appendix includes a letter from last August submitted to the USDA Secretary by Comptroller Lierman outlining the economic and financial impact of the center's closure on Maryland. 

"The Trump Administration's spending cuts and workforce reductions have been incredibly short-sighted. An estimated 25,000 federal workers lost their jobs in Maryland through November alone - forcing thousands of families into financial uncertainty," Comptroller Brooke E. Lierman said. "These aren't just numbers on a spreadsheet. Each job eliminated represents a dedicated public servant performing important roles serving our nation. Each job represents a family losing stability and ripple effects that cascade through our entire economy, hitting private businesses and communities whose livelihoods are tied to federal employment. This report and modeling tool demonstrates that federal policy decisions don't happen in a vacuum."

Federal Government Spending and Jobs Dashboard
A web-based, user-driven scenario dashboard, developed by the Smith School and the Comptroller, enables government officials and the public to estimate the direct impacts of federal spending changes at the statewide and county levels. The accessible dashboard, hosted on the Maryland Comptroller's website, allows users to view the top 10 federal agencies by spending and jobs, prior to the implementation of cuts in 2025, both statewide and by individual county. Data is presented as an annual average for the five-year period from 2020 to 2024. 

There are also two more in-depth and interactive scenario analysis dashboards available to state and county officials to assist with budget and planning activities.

"We are delighted to partner with the Comptroller to deliver data-driven research insights that inform state leaders and federal officials," said Smith School Dean Prabhudev Konana. "Smith School faculty and students are engaging deeply in rigorous economic analysis to help shape outcomes for Maryland, including work on the proposed closure of the USDA Beltsville Agricultural Research Center that provided critical insight and contributed to reversing a decision that would have moved hundreds of jobs and nearly $200 million in annual spending out of the state. By examining the broader effects of federal cuts, from HHS reductions to the dismantling of USAID, our experts are equipping Maryland's decision-makers with the evidence they need to safeguard communities and strengthen our economic future."

The January 2026 report and dashboard, compiled by researchers from the Smith School, both utilize federal datasets from the Office of Personnel Management, USASpending, and the U.S. Census to estimate impacts of federal government spending and jobs in Maryland.

View the January 2026 Scenario Analysis
View the Jobs and Spending Tool
View the June 2025 Report

About the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business
The Robert H. Smith School of Business is an internationally recognized leader in management education and research. One of 12 colleges and schools at the University of Maryland, College Park, the Smith School offers undergraduate, full-time and flex MBA, executive MBA, online MBA, business master's, PhD and executive education programs, as well as outreach services to the corporate community. The school offers its degree, custom and certification programs in learning locations in North America and Asia.

Media Contacts
Robyne McCullough
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Adam Abadir
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To contact one of the researchers:
Greg Muraski, [email protected]
Veronica Robinson, [email protected]

SOURCE University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business