New Rapidan Energy Group Analysis Shows Sharp Supply Crunch in Global Gasoline, Diesel, and Jet Fuel Markets by 2028 Due to Stronger-than-Expected Demand and Refinery Closures

WASHINGTON, May 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Rapidan Energy Group's new study finds the world is on track for a material shortage of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel toward the end of the decade as oil demand fails to peak and fuel supply declines due to refinery closures and shifting yields to petrochemicals.

"Misplaced faith in an early oil demand peak is setting the stage for a potentially serious shortage of transportation fuels by 2028," explained Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group. "While investors have prioritized liquids-to-chemicals and renewable diesel capacity, markets will be surprised by a shortage in good old fashioned gasoline, diesel, and jet."

Rapidan's new medium-term global downstream and refined oil product analysis, Mind the Gap - The Looming Shortage in Transportation Fuels, presents four scenarios contemplating the speed of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and refinery closures. Three of the four scenarios lead to material transportation fuel squeezes, with bullish implications for transportation fuel margins, fuel costs, and refinery investment.

"Recently fashionable peak demand forecasts are based on wishful thinking instead of objective analysis of policy, industry, and market trends. Oil data will soon reveal that transportation demand growth is not decoupling from economic growth and collapsing," said McNally. "And when the consensus capitulates to higher-for-longer transportation fuel demand growth, investors will quickly realize we're short refined product capacity later this decade, as our new report concludes and quantifies."

Mind the Gap's lead analyst is Linda Giesecke, a seasoned demand and refined product expert who recently joined Rapidan's team as Director of Refined Products. "You have to believe in fast EV adoption to avoid a supply crunch in gasoline in the coming years," Giesecke explained. "Diesel and jet supply gaps are very likely in any scenario, with bullish implications for margins." 

Rapidan's Mind the Gap forecast and analysis is part of the firm's all-new Refined Products Module (RPM), the downstream component of Rapidan's Global Oil Service. RPM includes our new short-term crack spread forecasts and supply-demand projections for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in key regional markets.

"At Rapidan, we continue to diversify our service offerings to add value for our clients," said Clay Seigle, Head of Rapidan's Global Oil Service. "The introduction of our Mind the Gap downstream and refining study marks our expansion into downstream data and research services, where we will continue to offer actionable insights about these evolving market sectors."

About Rapidan Energy Group

Rapidan Energy Group provides differentiated and actionable insights on energy markets, policy, and geopolitics. Leveraging our unrivaled team of seasoned former senior energy and intelligence officials, veteran fundamental analysts, and proprietary data and methodologies, we help leading corporations and investors identify and seize opportunities and manage risks in the global energy industry and markets.

To interview our experts on Rapidan's Mind the Gap study, or for more information about Rapidan's subscription and bespoke research services, please contact us at [email protected].

SOURCE Rapidan Energy Group