NEW YORK, March 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased 1.38 percent in February to 107.46, from the revised figure of 105.99 in January. The February figure is also up 6.1 percent from the same month a year ago.
"The acceleration in the ETI suggests that rapid job growth is likely to continue in the next several months, despite modest improvements in Demand and Production," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "In the past year output per hour of work grew very slowly. If this trend continues, employment growth could remain robust even if GDP continues to grow at a modest 2 to 2.5 percent, as we expect."
February's growth in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from seven of the eight components. The improving indicators – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get", Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Industrial Production*, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sale**, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, and Job Openings**. The only negative contributor this month was Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
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SOURCE The Conference Board