The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Dec 17, 2010, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in November to 112.4 (2004=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October, and a 0.6 percent increase in September.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "November's sharp increase in the LEI, the fifth consecutive gain, is an early sign that the expansion is gaining momentum and spreading. Nearly all components rose in November. Continuing strength in financial indicators is now joined by gains in manufacturing and consumer expectations, but housing remains weak."

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "The U.S. economy is showing some sparks of life in late 2010. Overall, the indicators point to a mild pickup after a slow winter. Looking further out, possible clouds on the medium term horizon include weaknesses in housing and employment."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in November to 101.7 (2004=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent decline in September. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in November to 108.6 (2004=100), following no change in October, and a 0.6 percent increase in September.  

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:


Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials

Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Money supply, M2

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Index of consumer expectations



For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes







2010

6-month


Sep

Oct

Nov

May to Nov






Leading index

110.8 r

111.2 r

112.4 p


 Percent Change

.6 r

.4 r

1.1 p

2.2

 Diffusion

70.0  

60.0  

90.0  

60.0

Coincident Index

101.4  

101.6 p

101.7 p


 Percent Change

-.1 r

.2 p

.1 p

0.4

 Diffusion

50.0  

75.0  

87.5  

87.5

Lagging Index

108.7 r

108.7 p

108.6 p


 Percent Change

.6 r

.0 p

-.1 p

1.1

 Diffusion

78.6  

21.4  

42.9  

64.3






n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board



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