TrueCar forecasts 16.9 Million SAAR in December as holiday promotions, strong demand lift sales 9.5 percent

Automakers close out year strong with best December sales in a decade and restrained incentive spending

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Dec 29, 2014, 11:04 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, forecasts the pace of auto sales in December accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million new units lifted by a strong economy, extended holiday promotional campaigns and mild weather conditions in most of the U.S.

New light vehicle sales (including fleet) should reach 1,490,100 units for the month, up 9.5 percent over a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, with one more selling day this December, deliveries are likely up 5.3 percent.

"What a way to close out this blockbuster year for the industry," said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. "With the strongest demand in a decade, gains in highly profitable segments and modest incentive growth, automakers should be grinning as they close the books this year."

Among larger volume brands, FCA and Kia should report volume increases of more than 20 percent each. Additionally, Subaru should hit a U.S. sales milestone this month, crossing the 500,000-unit mark on annual basis for the first time.

In December, incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,894 per vehicle, up 5.7 percent over a year ago, but flat versus November 2014.

"The economy has moved into growth mode and the auto market is hot," said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights. "Third quarter GDP grew 5 percent and the job market is steady, which is great news for both automakers and consumers. This puts the auto industry in a favorable position as we project 2015 will trump this year's 16.5 million new vehicle sales with a total of 17 million units – the most since 2005."

Other key findings for December include:

Expected registration mix of 86.5 percent retail sales and 13.5 percent fleet versus 85.7 percent retail and 14.3 percent fleet last December.
Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private party transactions, are estimated to exceed 4,456,219, up 18.9 percent over December 2013.

Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume for December 2014:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer	December 2014 Forecast	% Change vs. December 2013
FCA	196,300	21.1%
Ford	222,800	2.9%
GM	258,500	12.3%
Honda	137,400	1.6%
Hyundai	62,000	-1.6%
Kia	41,300	22.8%
Nissan	118,400	7.9%
Subaru	47,000	17.0%
Toyota	213,800	12.0%
Volkswagen Group	57,200	4.4%
Industry	1,490,100	9.5%

Market Share

Manufacturer	December 2014 Forecast	December 2013	November 2014
FCA	13.2%	11.9%	13.2%
Ford	15.0%	15.9%	14.3%
GM	17.3%	16.9%	17.4%
Honda	9.2%	9.9%	9.4%
Hyundai	4.2%	4.6%	4.1%
Kia	2.8%	2.5%	3.5%
Nissan	7.9%	8.1%	7.9%
Subaru	3.2%	3.0%	3.5%
Toyota	14.3%	14.0%	14.1%
Volkswagen Group	3.8%	4.0%	4.1%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer		December 2014 Forecast	% Change vs. December 2013	% Change vs. November 2014	Total Spending
FCA	$3,220		10.3%	1.5%	$628,604,146
Ford	$3,318		-2.3%	2.0%	$739,152,695
GM	$3,632		-0.5%	3.0%	$938,795,517
Honda	$2,065		6.9%	0.3%	$283,791,633
Hyundai	$1,722		31.1%	-2.2%	$106,787,278
Kia	$2,891		25.5%	3.7%	$119,398,894
Nissan	$2,595		-7.6%	-25.2%	$307,302,500
Subaru	$729		-12.7%	1.8%	$34,260,846
Toyota	$2,025		-1.4%	4.6%	$433,049,181
Volkswagen Group	$3,024		27.6%	2.5%	$171,469,295
Industry	$2,894		5.7%	0.0%	$4,302,563,100

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform. TrueCar enables a negotiation-free car buying experience by giving buyers transparent insight into what others actually paid (price confidence), upfront pricing information (price discovery), and access to a network of trusted TrueCar Certified Dealers who provide guaranteed savings certificates and seamlessly complete the car purchase. The reality is that buying a car is painful and buyers fear they are going to overpay or be surprised with hidden fees. TrueCar's transparent upfront pricing information makes the car buying process simple so there are no surprises and buyers never overpay. TrueCar's mission is to make car buying simple, fair and fun. Its national network of more than 9,000 TrueCar Certified Dealers, including both new car franchise dealers and non-franchise dealers, is committed to providing negotiation-free savings off MSRP and upfront pricing information for all car-buyers, including members of some of the country's largest membership and service organizations such as AARP, American Express, AAA, and USAA. Note: Not all program features are available in all states. Go to www.truecar.com for program details. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas.

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.