TrueCar Forecasts December and Fourth Quarter Industry Sales Slump Amid Continuing Inventory Shortages
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,144,108 units in December 2021, down 27% from a year ago and about on par with November 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 11.9 million, down 27% from December 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,024,263 units, down 27% from a year ago and on par with November 2021.
"Historically, December is a big month for the industry as OEMs and dealerships work to close out the calendar year with strong sales. The last week of the month is also typically the biggest week of the year in terms of sales volumes but it's unlikely to happen this year due to continued inventory shortages and declining incentives," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.
"In October we were seeing initial signs that the worst may be behind us in terms of inventory shortages. We continue to see signals of stability and in some cases, slight improvement. One such indicator, our scarcity measure, shows improvement in recent months for both new and used vehicles," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "However, questions still remain as to the trajectory of improvement we can expect to see in 2022."
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total sales for December 2021 are expected to be down 27% from a year ago and about even with November 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for December 2021 are expected to be down 29% from a year ago and down 3% from November 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 55% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 7.5% from a year ago and up 2.5% from November 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 27% from a year ago at 11.9 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for December 2021 are expected to reach about 3 million, up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from November 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for December 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 35,546 | 45,594 | 30,441 | -22.0% | -19.2% | 16.8% | 3.8% |
Daimler | 25,054 | 35,436 | 25,101 | -29.3% | -26.7% | -0.2% | -11.3% |
Ford | 166,547 | 208,007 | 157,417 | -19.9% | -17.0% | 5.8% | -6.0% |
GM | 168,640 | 295,536 | 139,618 | -42.9% | -40.8% | 20.8% | 7.4% |
Honda | 99,886 | 136,467 | 85,055 | -26.8% | -24.1% | 17.4% | 4.4% |
Hyundai | 51,457 | 69,388 | 49,347 | -25.8% | -23.1% | 4.3% | -7.3% |
Kia | 53,896 | 53,764 | 45,318 | 0.2% | 4.0% | 18.9% | 5.7% |
Nissan | 65,763 | 98,638 | 57,625 | -33.3% | -30.9% | 14.1% | 1.4% |
Stellantis | 134,038 | 202,371 | 125,415 | -33.8% | -31.3% | 6.9% | -5.0% |
Subaru | 43,435 | 63,558 | 33,045 | -31.7% | -29.1% | 31.4% | 16.8% |
Tesla | 36,300 | 26,950 | 33,980 | 34.7% | 39.7% | 6.8% | -5.0% |
Toyota | 176,491 | 251,256 | 154,139 | -29.8% | -27.2% | 14.5% | 1.8% |
Volkswagen Group | 44,457 | 70,175 | 41,642 | -36.6% | -34.3% | 6.8% | -5.1% |
Industry | 1,144,108 | 1,619,907 | 1,021,312 | -29.4% | -26.8% | 12.0% | -0.4% |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 34,981 | 43,492 | 29,911 | -19.6% | -16.6% | 17.0% | 4.0% |
Daimler | 24,008 | 34,028 | 24,588 | -29.4% | -26.8% | -2.4% | -13.2% |
Ford | 136,046 | 172,006 | 127,804 | -20.9% | -18.0% | 6.4% | -5.4% |
GM | 140,325 | 260,525 | 121,194 | -46.1% | -44.1% | 15.8% | 2.9% |
Honda | 98,858 | 135,549 | 84,699 | -27.1% | -24.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% |
Hyundai | 50,323 | 63,195 | 48,815 | -20.4% | -17.4% | 3.1% | -8.4% |
Kia | 49,804 | 51,133 | 43,632 | -2.6% | 1.0% | 14.1% | 1.5% |
Nissan | 57,684 | 77,741 | 47,586 | -25.8% | -23.1% | 21.2% | 7.8% |
Stellantis | 108,394 | 168,731 | 103,610 | -35.8% | -33.4% | 4.6% | -7.0% |
Subaru | 43,230 | 62,129 | 31,813 | -30.4% | -27.8% | 35.9% | 20.8% |
Tesla | 36,115 | 26,950 | 33,968 | 34.0% | 39.0% | 6.3% | -5.5% |
Toyota | 165,011 | 235,424 | 136,059 | -29.9% | -27.3% | 21.3% | 7.8% |
Volkswagen Group | 43,668 | 61,261 | 41,069 | -28.7% | -26.1% | 6.3% | -5.5% |
Industry | 1,024,263 | 1,445,852 | 911,344 | -29.2% | -26.5% | 12.4% | -0.1% |
Fleet Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 565 | 2,102 | 530 | -73.1% | -72.1% | 6.5% | -5.3% |
Daimler | 1,046 | 1,408 | 513 | -25.7% | -22.9% | 103.7% | 81.1% |
Ford | 30,501 | 36,001 | 29,613 | -15.3% | -12.1% | 3.0% | -8.4% |
GM | 28,315 | 35,011 | 18,424 | -19.1% | -16.1% | 53.7% | 36.6% |
Honda | 1,028 | 918 | 356 | 12.0% | 16.1% | 188.5% | 156.4% |
Hyundai | 1,134 | 6,193 | 532 | -81.7% | -81.0% | 113.0% | 89.3% |
Kia | 4,092 | 2,631 | 1,686 | 55.5% | 61.3% | 142.7% | 115.7% |
Nissan | 8,079 | 20,897 | 10,039 | -61.3% | -59.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
Stellantis | 25,644 | 33,640 | 21,805 | -23.8% | -20.9% | 17.6% | 4.5% |
Subaru | 205 | 1,429 | 1,232 | -85.7% | -85.1% | -83.4% | -85.2% |
Tesla | 185 | - | 12 | 1496.9% | 1319.5% | ||
Toyota | 11,480 | 15,832 | 18,080 | -27.5% | -24.8% | -36.5% | -43.6% |
Volkswagen Group | 789 | 8,914 | 573 | -91.2% | -90.8% | 37.8% | 22.5% |
Industry | 119,845 | 174,055 | 109,968 | -31.1% | -28.6% | 9.0% | -3.1% |
Fleet Penetration | |||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 1.6% | 4.6% | 1.7% | -65.5% | -8.8% |
Daimler | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 104.1% |
Ford | 18.3% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 5.8% | -2.6% |
GM | 16.8% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 41.7% | 27.2% |
Honda | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 53.0% | 145.6% |
Hyundai | 2.2% | 8.9% | 1.1% | -75.3% | 104.2% |
Kia | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 55.1% | 104.1% |
Nissan | 12.3% | 21.2% | 17.4% | -42.0% | -29.5% |
Stellantis | 19.1% | 16.6% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 10.0% |
Subaru | 0.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | -79.0% | -87.3% |
Tesla | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1394.8% | |
Toyota | 6.5% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 3.2% | -44.5% |
Volkswagen Group | 1.8% | 12.7% | 1.4% | -86.0% | 29.0% |
Industry | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | -2.5% | -2.7% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual |
BMW | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
Daimler | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
Ford | 14.6% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
GM | 14.7% | 18.2% | 13.7% |
Honda | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% |
Hyundai | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% |
Kia | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% |
Nissan | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
Stellantis | 11.7% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
Subaru | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
Tesla | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% |
Toyota | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.1% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
96.3% | 96.1% | 95.8% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual |
BMW | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% |
Daimler | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
Ford | 13.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
GM | 13.7% | 18.0% | 13.3% |
Honda | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% |
Hyundai | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% |
Kia | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% |
Nissan | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
Stellantis | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.4% |
Subaru | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% |
Tesla | 3.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% |
Toyota | 16.1% | 16.3% | 14.9% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
96.5% | 96.3% | 96.0% | |
ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $59,663 | $60,439 | $58,004 | -1.3% | 2.9% |
Daimler | $68,278 | $61,005 | $61,724 | 11.9% | 10.6% |
Ford | $47,314 | $44,133 | $45,093 | 7.2% | 4.9% |
GM | $50,400 | $44,801 | $50,898 | 12.5% | -1.0% |
Honda | $32,443 | $30,990 | $31,783 | 4.7% | 2.1% |
Hyundai | $33,985 | $31,282 | $33,297 | 8.6% | 2.1% |
Kia | $30,472 | $28,063 | $29,746 | 8.6% | 2.4% |
Nissan | $31,921 | $28,876 | $31,607 | 10.5% | 1.0% |
Stellantis | $50,356 | $43,923 | $49,928 | 14.6% | 0.9% |
Subaru | $31,846 | $30,543 | $31,379 | 4.3% | 1.5% |
Toyota | $36,861 | $35,190 | $36,696 | 4.7% | 0.5% |
Volkswagen Group | $41,234 | $40,484 | $40,310 | 1.9% | 2.3% |
Industry | $41,950 | $39,008 | $40,924 | 7.5% | 2.5% |
$2,942 | $1,026 | ||||
Incentives | |||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $2,518 | $5,319 | $2,786 | -52.7% | -9.6% |
Daimler | $3,045 | $4,129 | $2,427 | -26.3% | 25.5% |
Ford | $2,522 | $4,205 | $2,447 | -40.0% | 3.1% |
GM | $1,617 | $5,366 | $1,829 | -69.9% | -11.6% |
Honda | $1,270 | $2,667 | $1,599 | -52.4% | -20.6% |
Hyundai | $1,049 | $2,500 | $1,209 | -58.0% | -13.2% |
Kia | $1,639 | $2,984 | $1,652 | -45.1% | -0.8% |
Nissan | $1,764 | $4,280 | $1,995 | -58.8% | -11.5% |
Stellantis | $2,376 | $4,869 | $2,465 | -51.2% | -3.6% |
Subaru | $969 | $1,427 | $1,058 | -32.1% | -8.4% |
Toyota | $1,172 | $2,805 | $1,257 | -58.2% | -6.8% |
Volkswagen Group | $1,683 | $4,004 | $2,089 | -58.0% | -19.4% |
Industry | $1,756 | $3,922 | $1,904 | -55.2% | -7.8% |
-$2,166 | -$148 | ||||
Incentives as % of ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | 4.2% | 8.8% | 4.8% | -52.0% | -12.2% |
Daimler | 4.5% | 6.8% | 3.9% | -34.1% | 13.4% |
Ford | 5.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% | -44.0% | -1.8% |
GM | 3.2% | 12.0% | 3.6% | -73.2% | -10.7% |
Honda | 3.9% | 8.6% | 5.0% | -54.5% | -22.2% |
Hyundai | 3.1% | 8.0% | 3.6% | -61.4% | -15.0% |
Kia | 5.4% | 10.6% | 5.6% | -49.4% | -3.1% |
Nissan | 5.5% | 14.8% | 6.3% | -62.7% | -12.4% |
Stellantis | 4.7% | 11.1% | 4.9% | -57.4% | -4.4% |
Subaru | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | -34.9% | -9.7% |
Toyota | 3.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | -60.1% | -7.2% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.1% | 9.9% | 5.2% | -58.7% | -21.2% |
Industry | 4.2% | 10.1% | 4.7% | -58.4% | -10.0% |
Revenue | |||||
Manufacturer | Dec 2021 Forecast | Dec 2020 Actual | Nov 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
Industry | $47,995,748,449 | $63,190,124,752 | $41,796,340,074 | -24.0% | 14.8% |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 93,996 | 107,299 | 82,064 | -12.4% | -11.3% | 14.5% | 13.1% |
Daimler | 70,236 | 94,098 | 63,747 | -25.4% | -24.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
Ford | 498,428 | 538,643 | 397,644 | -7.5% | -6.3% | 25.3% | 23.7% |
GM | 441,426 | 767,444 | 443,150 | -42.5% | -41.7% | -0.4% | -1.7% |
Honda | 282,024 | 366,068 | 345,914 | -23.0% | -22.0% | -18.5% | -19.5% |
Hyundai | 162,865 | 183,943 | 193,522 | -11.5% | -10.3% | -15.8% | -16.9% |
Kia | 151,281 | 157,755 | 177,014 | -4.1% | -2.9% | -14.5% | -15.6% |
Nissan | 183,247 | 243,133 | 198,955 | -24.6% | -23.7% | -7.9% | -9.1% |
Stellantis | 392,666 | 501,273 | 408,782 | -21.7% | -20.7% | -3.9% | -5.2% |
Subaru | 113,297 | 175,382 | 141,552 | -35.4% | -34.6% | -20.0% | -21.0% |
Tesla | 97,417 | 68,200 | 75,631 | 42.8% | 44.7% | 28.8% | 27.2% |
Toyota | 477,300 | 660,715 | 565,880 | -27.8% | -26.8% | -15.7% | -16.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 130,542 | 172,464 | 136,650 | -24.3% | -23.3% | -4.5% | -5.7% |
Industry | 3,222,286 | 4,196,656 | 3,394,029 | -23.2% | -22.2% | -5.1% | -6.3% |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 92,502 | 102,907 | 76,834 | -10.1% | -9.0% | 20.4% | 18.8% |
Daimler | 67,304 | 89,927 | 60,038 | -25.2% | -24.2% | 12.1% | 10.7% |
Ford | 407,147 | 434,988 | 302,539 | -6.4% | -5.2% | 34.6% | 32.9% |
GM | 367,310 | 663,963 | 395,087 | -44.7% | -44.0% | -7.0% | -8.2% |
Honda | 279,122 | 363,704 | 341,249 | -23.3% | -22.3% | -18.2% | -19.3% |
Hyundai | 159,276 | 161,928 | 183,812 | -1.6% | -0.4% | -13.3% | -14.5% |
Kia | 139,796 | 146,944 | 168,226 | -4.9% | -3.6% | -16.9% | -18.0% |
Nissan | 160,735 | 202,108 | 174,178 | -20.5% | -19.5% | -7.7% | -8.9% |
Stellantis | 317,541 | 426,676 | 348,224 | -25.6% | -24.6% | -8.8% | -10.0% |
Subaru | 112,762 | 172,041 | 139,035 | -34.5% | -33.6% | -18.9% | -19.9% |
Tesla | 96,921 | 67,770 | 74,905 | 43.0% | 44.8% | 29.4% | 27.7% |
Toyota | 446,254 | 604,338 | 528,643 | -26.2% | -25.2% | -15.6% | -16.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 128,226 | 155,506 | 133,213 | -17.5% | -16.5% | -3.7% | -5.0% |
Industry | 2,884,753 | 3,744,978 | 3,075,886 | -23.0% | -22.0% | -6.2% | -7.4% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 |
BMW | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Daimler | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
Ford | 15.5% | 12.8% | 11.7% |
GM | 13.7% | 18.3% | 13.1% |
Honda | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% |
Hyundai | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% |
Kia | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% |
Nissan | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
Stellantis | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
Subaru | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
Tesla | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% |
Toyota | 14.8% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
96.0% | 96.2% | 95.2% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 |
BMW | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
Daimler | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
Ford | 14.1% | 11.6% | 9.8% |
GM | 12.7% | 17.7% | 12.8% |
Honda | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% |
Hyundai | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% |
Kia | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% |
Nissan | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% |
Stellantis | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% |
Subaru | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
Tesla | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
Toyota | 15.5% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
96.2% | 95.9% | 95.1% | |
ATP | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $58,598 | $60,034 | $59,033 | -2.4% | -0.7% | |
Daimler | $64,293 | $59,016 | $63,836 | 8.9% | 0.7% | |
Ford | $46,190 | $43,756 | $47,166 | 5.6% | -2.1% | |
GM | $50,149 | $43,749 | $45,894 | 14.6% | 9.3% | |
Honda | $32,252 | $30,796 | $31,458 | 4.7% | 2.5% | |
Hyundai | $33,670 | $30,608 | $32,318 | 10.0% | 4.2% | |
Kia | $29,922 | $27,864 | $28,002 | 7.4% | 6.9% | |
Nissan | $32,065 | $28,719 | $31,596 | 11.6% | 1.5% | |
Stellantis | $49,647 | $43,610 | $47,495 | 13.8% | 4.5% | |
Subaru | $31,360 | $30,444 | $30,709 | 3.0% | 2.1% | |
Toyota | $36,985 | $35,149 | $35,890 | 5.2% | 3.1% | |
Volkswagen Group | $40,325 | $39,397 | $40,566 | 2.4% | -0.6% | |
Industry | $41,149 | $38,137 | $38,855 | 7.9% | 5.9% | |
$3,012 | $2,295 | |||||
Incentives | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q4 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q3 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $2,728 | $5,172 | $4,071 | -47.3% | -33.0% | |
Daimler | $2,738 | $4,343 | $3,183 | -37.0% | -14.0% | |
Ford | $2,509 | $4,309 | $2,485 | -41.8% | 1.0% | |
GM | $1,813 | $5,131 | $3,201 | -64.7% | -43.3% | |
Honda | $1,478 | $2,501 | $2,037 | -40.9% | -27.5% | |
Hyundai | $1,119 | $2,448 | $1,594 | -54.3% | -29.8% | |
Kia | $1,730 | $2,962 | $2,305 | -41.6% | -24.9% | |
Nissan | $1,916 | $4,452 | $2,635 | -57.0% | -27.3% | |
Stellantis | $2,501 | $4,670 | $2,951 | -46.5% | -15.3% | |
Subaru | $1,006 | $1,478 | $1,311 | -31.9% | -23.3% | |
Toyota | $1,243 | $2,673 | $1,969 | -53.5% | -36.9% | |
Volkswagen Group | $1,962 | $4,031 | $2,904 | -51.3% | -32.5% | |
Industry | $1,877 | $3,820 | $2,492 | -50.9% | -24.7% | |
-$1,943 | -$614 | |||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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