UOB Asset Management Highlights Three Potential Market Paths as Geopolitical Risk Rise

SINGAPORE, April 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- UOB Asset Management (UOBAM) has released its 2Q 2026 Quarterly Investment Strategy, highlighting a more uncertain investment environment as resilient global growth and structural innovation are increasingly offset by heightened geopolitical risks.

According to the report, global growth and corporate earnings expectations remain broadly constructive across major regions, underpinned by continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI), energy and infrastructure. However, recent geopolitical developments — particularly in the Middle East — have materially increased uncertainty, raising the risk of energy‑market disruptions, renewed inflation pressures and higher market volatility.

UOBAM cautions that the Iran conflict is no longer a single-outcome risk and outlined three possible scenarios for the months ahead.

In a 40 per cent probability scenario, geopolitical tensions ease, allowing energy prices to stabilise, inflation pressures to moderate, and risk assets to recover. Another 40 percent probability scenario assumes prolonged disruption, leading to heightened volatility and downside risks to economic growth and markets.

In a lower probability (20 per cent) but more severe scenario, the conflict escalates, and recession risks rise materially.

Anthony Raza, Head of UOBAM Multi-Asset Strategy, said "While geopolitical outcomes remain difficult to predict, markets are likely to focus less on political intent and more on the implications for economic stability, inflation and risk premiums. As a result, investors are reassessing the reliability of the global policy and security environment, increasing the likelihood of structurally higher risk premiums and reinforcing the need for more cautious, resilient and diversified portfolio construction."

In view of the developments, UOBAM is neutral on equities relative to benchmarks, emphasising diversification and selectivity, while remaining diversified across fixed income, overweight on gold and underweight on cash.

For deeper insights across equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities, read the full Q2 2026 Investment Strategy: https://uobam.com.sg/qis2q26

About UOB Asset Management

UOB Asset Management Ltd (UOBAM) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Overseas Bank Limited. Established in 1986, UOBAM has 40 years of experience in managing collective investment schemes and discretionary funds in Singapore, making us among the largest unit trust managers by assets under management. As of 28 February 2026, we manage 61 unit trusts in Singapore and together with our subsidiaries, oversee S$43.4 billion in clients' assets.

Headquartered in Singapore, UOBAM has a strong presence across Asia, with business and investment offices in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Our network includes UOB Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd in Malaysia, a joint venture with Ping An Fund Management Company Limited (China) and strategic alliances with partners such as Wellington Management Singapore.

UOBAM is one of the region's most awarded asset managers, with over 380 awards won. In 2025, we were recognised as the Best Regional Asset Management Company by the Asia Asset Management and previously named Best Asset Management House in Asia – 20 Years in 2023. Our digital innovation has also earned top honours, including Best Digital Wealth Management in Asia^[1] and Best Robo Advisory Initiative^[2] for four consecutive years as of 2025.

As a leader in sustainable investing, UOBAM was awarded Best application of ESG in ASEAN^[3] (2023) and has received multiple sustainability accolades in Indonesia and Thailand. Our artificial intelligence capabilities were also recognised with the Most Innovative Application of Artificial Intelligence (ASEAN) for three consecutive years^[4].

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SOURCE UOB Asset Management