1World Online Most Accurately Predicts South Carolina Primary

Best of All 45 Poll Results Leading up to Republican Primary Election

Feb 24, 2016, 08:00 ET from 1World Online

SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb. 24, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- 1World predicted better than any other entity in the country the Republican primary results in South Carolina; only 1World predicted Donald Trump would get 33% of the vote with Marco Rubio second and Ted Cruz third. The prediction and results, as published prior to the election, were as follows:

                        PREDICTION      ACTUAL

Trump                   33%                    33%

Rubio                    20%                    22%

Cruz                     19%                     22%

Kasich                  12%                      8%

Bush                     10%                      8%

Carson                   6%                      7%

1World's research team, led by Chief Research Officer (and University of South Carolina Journalism Professor) Dr. Augie Grant, conducted an analysis that combined the results of 15 selected polls conducted among South Carolina voters since February 1st. The results from each poll were weighted to adjust for sample size and response rate. These results were then adjusted to account for individual candidate trends, projections of voter participation, and allocation of undecided voters. As a combination of weighted results that includes projections regarding undecided voters and short-term trends, the margin of error can't be determined; but, what you end up with is a simple, numerical projection of the final South Carolina vote count.

1World methodology includes spot polling on trending aspects of a campaign using its innovative digital intelligence platform, which includes tools for polling, surveying, quizzes, debates, and analytics. In this primary race, 1World introduces "1PoP," a new Poll of Polls methodology. Weighted adjustment and spot polling are also used as needed. The next 1World prediction is scheduled for the South Carolina Democratic primary election on February 27th.

Of the 45 polls captured for this Republican primary election in South Carolina, closeness was measured as a sum of the squared deviations. This partial measure of accuracy showed 1World was a close second to Emerson University, but Emerson incorrectly picked Cruz to finish second, ahead of Rubio, and thus missed all the implications that carries for the Republican election race. "Polling, whether it is for political elections or for corporate research, has become a very difficult proposition," said Dr. Grant, "In today's fractured world, it takes cutting edge research and listening to signals others might miss to make accurate predictions."

1World will partner with select newspapers and online publishers to do co-branded or white-labeled polling for that publisher's local state primary or general elections, at both the Presidential and Congressional levels. Please contact 1World to learn more.

About 1World Online
1World Online has developed and maintains a Web Engagement & Analytics Platform and also has a world-class research competency that helps publishers, corporations, or campaign teams perform cutting-edge insightful research. 1World is headquartered in Silicon Valley and has offices in San Jose, CA and on the USA East coast. Internationally, 1World has operations in Europe, India, Latin America and Singapore. Please visit us at http://www.1Worldonline.com or contact us at info@1worldonline.com.

 

SOURCE 1World Online



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