New energy vehicle drive motor industry in China (industry chain, cost analysis, business model, competitive landscape, competition among major manufacturers, competition pattern of drive motors for passenger car and commercial vehicle; technical status and development trends of drive motor);22 Chinese and 6 global companies (operation, development strategy, supply chain, new energy vehicle drive motor business, etc.);New energy vehicle drive motor industry (definition, classification, upstream & downstream industry chain of automotive drive motor);Operating environment of new energy vehicle drive motor industry in China (policy, and development of new energy vehicle market and its impact on automotive drive motor industry).
China produced 134,000 units and sold 126,000 units of battery electric vehicles in the first six months of 2016, a surge of 160.8% and 161.6% over the same period of last year, according to the China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM). Adoption of motors in battery electric passenger car may lead to the following conclusions:
(1) Permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is the first choice for electric passenger car and finds increasing market share;
(2) With stable market share, AC asynchronous motor is one of mainstream motors for electric passenger car and will suffer a gradual decline in market share along with expansion of PMSM and other types of motors but still remain dominant for a longer period of time to come;
(3) Brushless DC motor experiences a collapse in market share, standing at 20.3% in the first half of 2015 and 14.8% at the end of the year, and less than 1% in the first six months of 2016;
(4) Hybrid excitation synchronous machine (HESM) is increasingly favored by battery electric car manufacturers with a higher market share from 0.03% in 2015H1 to 0.1% throughout the year and 1.1% in 2016H1.
Passenger cars mostly adopt PMSM; a single unit of drive motor system often has a power of 30KW-50KW and is priced at RMB10,000-20,000. As the power of drive motor for mini electric vehicle is generally 20KW, the price falls to RMB7,000/unit accordingly. Passenger car drive motor system now usually adopts the model of in-house, which prevails in companies like BYD, ZOTYE, Xin Dayang, SAIC Motor, and JAC Motors. And Zhongshan Broad-ocean Motor (serving BAIC Motor), Shanghai Edrive (serving Chery), Hangzhou Dewos Electric Technology (serving ZOTYE and acquired by Zhejiang Founder Motor) are a few independent motor manufacturers that have entered the supply chain of mainstream passenger car makers.
Bus drive motor system is the field that is highly competitive with a large number of manufacturers. The companies with the biggest market shares were Shanghai Edrive, Jing-Jin Electric and Hunan CRRC Times Electric Vehicle in 2014. 100KW AC asynchronous drive motor is priced at around RMB10,000/unit, and dual-motor system is quoted at RMB300,000/unit.
Over the next five to ten years, drive motor technology will develop towards permanent magnetization, integration, and digitalization. Motor control and integration technology will be the focus of competition among enterprises. China lags far behind the advanced world levels in the aspects of key IGBT chip packaging technology and 3rd-generation SiC IGBT research and development, which will be prioritized in the future.
With regard to drive technology, there are two main modes: centralized drive and hub drive.
(1) Centralized motor drive is transformed from structure of traditional diesel locomotive, is suitable for mass production, and has easily controllable cost, enabling it the mainstream motor drive mode.
(2) "Next-generation motor and electric control system" is likely to be hub motor and control system. Enjoying certain advantages in weight and efficiency, hub drive technology has started to be adopted in some hybrids by GM, Toyota and Benz and to be developed by some domestic makers with own brands. The technology now is still immature and has not been applied massively, but it may be the development direction of EV drive mode in the future. Japan and U.S. are way ahead in hub motor development, with industry leaders including Japanese Fuji Electric and Yasukawa Electric, and American Protean Electric.
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