Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Assets Under Management to Exceed $5 Trillion by 2020, Says PwC

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Jan 26, 2015, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Professionally managed financial investments globally are predicted to grow at 6 percent annually to reach $100 trillion by 2020, according to 'ETF 2020: Preparing for a new horizon' ("ETF 2020"), a new report by PwC. ETFs will pay a prominent role in this growth, as new investor segments continue to integrate them into their portfolios and fund sponsors continue to introduce more products.

The report, which surveyed executives from 60 ETF sponsors, asset managers and service providers around the world that account for over 70 percent of global assets, reveals that more than three out of four executives expect ETF assets to at least double, to reach $5 trillion or more by 2020.

According to ETF 2020, asset flows in the developed markets of the U.S. and Europe will continue to dominate the ETF landscape. However, the highest rates of growth will be found in the less mature markets. Institutional investors are widely expected to be the primary growth driver with insurance companies, pension plans, and hedge funds in particular, projected to be significant sources of demand for ETFs.

New types of indexing (also referred to as "smart beta") represent a hotbed of product development activity with 46 percent of firms surveyed identifying this as the most important area of innovation. PwC expects this to continue for the near-term. Active ETFs (34 percent) and alternatives (29 percent) are also expected to be sources of significant ETF growth between now and 2020.

ETF sponsors are bullish on their financial prospects with 59 percent saying they expect their ETF business to become more profitable this year. According to PwC, upgrading technology, resources and processes will be critical as the ETF landscape becomes more global and advanced, with a wider array of investors and new investment strategies offered in ETF form.

"Shifts in the regulatory environment will continue to produce opportunities that will favour firms with local market knowledge. The ability to transform ETFs into effective solutions that address the needs of specific investor segments will be a particularly important factor in competing successfully," said Nigel Brashaw, Global ETF leader, PwC.

In the U.S., institutional investors, including registered investment advisors, wealth management platforms, other asset managers, endowments and foundations are each expected to continue to expand their investments in ETFs between now and 2020. There continues to be significant interest in active ETFs, particularly in light of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval of one version of non-transparent active ETFs. According to PwC, SEC approval of additional versions of non-transparent active ETFs could lead to another phase of growth and innovation.

Overall, the regulatory environment is widely believed by the survey participants to have a significant impact on the growth and innovation of ETFs over the next few years. 91 percent indicated that regulations and taxes impact ETF growth. PwC notes, however, that while new regulations could spark further growth if they permit further product innovation or lower distribution barriers, they could also dampen demand, particularly if new tax rules make ETFs less tax efficient.

ETF 2020 highlights that service providers will need to continue to adapt their business model by adding resources, streamlining processes, introducing more automation, globalizing operations and upgrading technology.

"Despite myriad challenges, opportunities abound for existing ETF sponsors as well as other asset managers willing to develop a thoughtful and informed strategy as they prepare to address this market," commented Bill Donahue, ETF practice leader, PwC. "However, as more types of investment strategies become operationally feasible and are permitted by regulators, firms will need to develop and retain deep expertise, differentiated products, investor education, and effective distribution channels to achieve success with their ETF offerings."

Additional findings include:

In Europe, new regulatory initiatives are expected to be some of the biggest drivers of change in the ETF business, affecting distribution dynamics and the product landscape in particular. MiFID II and Retail Distribution Review (RDR) are set to ban the use of commissions by independent financial advisors, spurring growth in active ETFs.
In Asia, the market is still relatively young and traditional forms of passively managed ETFs will continue to be viewed as a major growth opportunity in the region. While distribution remains a challenge, fund passports could have a profound impact on the success of ETFs. Additionally, there is the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock connect market access program, which could create additional opportunities for ETFs if they are added to its scope.

Survey methodology

PwC surveyed executives from 60 firms around the world in 2014 using a combination of structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Two-thirds of the participants were ETF managers or sponsors, with the remaining participants divided between asset managers not currently offering ETFs and service providers. Participating firms account for more than 70 percent of global ETF assets.

To download a copy of PwC's report, 'ETF 2020: Preparing for a new horizon', please visit www.pwc.com/us/ETF2020

About PwC

PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they're looking for. We're a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 195,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

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