New-Vehicle Sales To Climb 9 Percent In September; Kelley Blue Book Adjusts 2014 Forecast To 16.4 Million

Big Gains Expected for Most Automakers; Compact Utility Surpasses Full-Size Truck Segment in Popularity

Sep 25, 2014, 13:49 ET from Kelley Blue Book

IRVINE, Calif., Sept. 25, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 9.1 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.24 million units, resulting in an estimated 16.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Based on the robust sales pace during the past few months, Kelley Blue Book is adjusting its sales outlook for 2014 from 16.3 million to 16.4 million.     

"Following an extraordinarily strong month of sales in August, with the industry above 17 million SAAR for the first time in eight years, Kelley Blue Book expects sales to level out in September," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "Sales will remain strong and show healthy year-over-year improvement.  Rising incentive spend in recent months has been more than offset by increasing retail transaction prices, signaling continued consumer demand." 

Key Highlights for Estimated September 2014 Sales Forecast:

  • In September, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,240,000 units, up 9.1 percent from September 2013 and down 21.7 percent from August 2014.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September 2014 is estimated to be 16.4 million, up from 15.3 million in September 2013 and down from 17.4 million in August 2014.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 85 percent of volume in September 2014.

Chrysler to Mark Seventh Month of Double-Digit Growth; Big Gains Expected for Most Manufacturers in September

Chrysler Group continues its reign in September with an anticipated volume increase of 17 percent, marking its seventh month of double-digit growth this year.  Chrysler is benefitting from its Jeep and RAM brands, which have pushed their market share up by a full point this year, to its highest point since 2007. 

With the benefit of an extra selling day, big gains are expected for many manufacturers in September.  One exception could be Ford, which may see a decline in F-Series sales as they manage current inventory in preparation for the all-new F-Series launch. 


Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Sep-14

Sep-13

YOY %

Sep-14

Sep-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

217,000

187,195

15.9%

17.5%

16.5%

1.0%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

180,000

184,452

-2.4%

14.5%

16.2%

-1.7%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

176,000

164,457

7.0%

14.2%

14.5%

-0.3%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)

168,000

143,017

17.5%

13.5%

12.6%

1.0%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

118,000

105,563

11.8%

9.5%

9.3%

0.2%

Hyundai-Kia

103,000

93,105

10.6%

8.3%

8.2%

0.1%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

102,000

86,868

17.4%

8.2%

7.6%

0.6%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

50,000

48,127

3.9%

4.0%

4.2%

-0.2%

Total 3

1,240,000

1,136,240

9.1%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements






2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights






3 Includes brands not shown






 

Compact Utility Segment Surpasses Full-Size Truck Segment to Become Third Most Popular

The compact utility segment will continue its success in September, with an expected volume increase of 19 percent.  In fact, just this year, the compact utility segment has surpassed the full-size pickup truck segment to become the third most popular segment in the industry, trailing mid-size and compact cars. 

"Similar to previous months, growth in the compact utility segment has come at the expense of mid-size and compact cars," said Gutierrez.  "With market share in the mid-size and compact car segments continually under fire and the competitive landscape stronger than ever before, consumers can expect to find great deals on the Camry, Civic and other traditional segment leaders."    


Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Sep-14

Sep-13

YOY %

Sep-14

Sep-13

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

180,000

166,894

7.9%

14.5%

14.7%

-0.2%

Compact Car

175,000

165,107

6.0%

14.1%

14.5%

-0.4%

Compact SUV/Crossover

157,000

131,814

19.1%

12.7%

11.6%

1.1%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

152,000

145,449

4.5%

12.3%

12.8%

-0.5%

Entry-level Luxury Car

63,000

61,703

2.1%

5.1%

5.4%

-0.3%

Total 2

1,240,000

1,136,240

9.1%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights






2 Includes segments not shown






 

There are 24 sales days in September 2014, compared to 23 sales days in September 2013.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for three consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company.

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