Pfizer Reigns Supreme After Patent Cliff as Humira Kicks Avastin off Top Spot

LONDON, May 3, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- The rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira will replace Lipitor as the world's biggest-selling drug in 2016, but a familiar name, Pfizer, will still be the biggest seller of medicines after the patent cliff according to the World Preview 2016 report published today by EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharma and biotech analysis.

The cancer treatment Avastin had been widely expected to emerge as the biggest blockbuster drug following patent expiry next year for Lipitor, a cholesterol-lowering drug. However, Avastin has experienced some clinical setbacks this year and as a result Humira is now forecast to be the top drug with sales of $10.1bn in 2016, according to the EvaluatePharma report.

Meanwhile, Pfizer, through a strategy of mergers and acquisitions including last year's $68bn mega-merger with Wyeth, will cling to the top spot in prescription sales, although Merck & Co, thanks to its $41bn merger with Schering-Plough last year, will be close behind.

        WW Prescription (Rx)         WW Annual          Market        Market
        Pharmaceutical Sales        Sales ($bn)          Share         Rank
      Rank                        2009 2016 Annual     2009 2016    2009 2016
                                            Growth
                                            (09 -
                                             16)
       1     Pfizer *             55.3 47.1  -2%       8.6% 6.0%      1    1
       2     Merck & Co *         41.6 46.3  +2%       6.5% 5.9%      2    2
       3     Novartis             37.3 46.0  +3%       5.8% 5.9%      4    3
       4     Roche                36.0 43.9  +3%       5.6% 5.6%      6    4
       5     Sanofi-Aventis       38.3 38.9  +0%       6.0% 5.0%      3    5
       6     GlaxoSmithKline      36.3 38.7  +1%       5.6% 4.9%      5    6
       7     Abbott Laboratories  16.5 26.1  +7%       2.6% 3.3%      10   7
       8     Johnson & Johnson    21.3 24.8  +2%       3.3% 3.2%      8    8
       9     AstraZeneca          31.6 22.1  -5%       4.9% 2.8%      7    9
       10    Teva Pharmaceutical  12.6 20.8  +7%       2.0% 2.7%      15   10
             Industries

      * Proforma data in 2009 (Pfizer+Wyeth / Merck+Schering-Plough)

A surprise in the top pharma sales list is the entrance of Teva, the Israeli generics company which will become an increasingly large pharma player as the industry's patent cliff looms. Over the next seven years Teva will push into the top ten ahead of some more traditional big pharma groups like Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Amgen.

In terms of therapy areas biotech products targeting cancer and rheumatic disorders look set to dominate the scene, accounting for six of the top 10 in 2016. Only Glaxo's respiratory medicine Advair, which is proving incredibly resilient to generic challengers, and AstraZeneca's cholesterol fighter Crestor, will be carrying the flame for conventional, small molecules drugs in 2016.

                 Top Ten Selling Products in 2016             WW annual sales
                                                                  ($bn)
    Rank Product   Company(s)       Drug Target  Technology   2009 2016Annual
                                                                       Growth
                                                                      (09-16)
     1   Humira    Abbott
                   Laboratories
                   /Eisai           Arthritis    Biotech      5.6  10.1   9%
                                                 (monoclonal
                                                 antibody)
     2   Avastin   Roche            Cancer       Biotech      5.7  8.9    6%
                                                 (monoclonal
                                                 antibody)
     3   Enbrel    Amgen/Pfi        Arthritis    Biotech      6.5  7.3    2%
                   zer/Takeda                    (recombinant
                                                 product)
     4   Rituxan   Roche/Biogen     Cancer       Biotech      5.6  6.8    3%
                   Idec                          (monoclonal
                                                 antibody)
     5   Crestor   AstraZeneca/     Cholesterol  Conventional 4.8  6.3    4%
                   Shionogi/Chiesi  -lowering    (small
                                                 molecule)
     6   Herceptin Roche            Cancer       Biotech      4.9  6.2    3%
                                                 (monoclonal
                                                 antibody)
     7   Remicade  Johnson &        Arthritis    Biotech      5.9  5.7    0%
                   Johnson/Merck &               (monoclonal
                   Co/Mitsubishi                 antibody)
                   Tanabe

     8   Lantus    Sanofi-Aventis   Insulin      Biotech      4.3  5.3    3%
                                    for diabetes (recombinant
                                                 product)
     9   Advair/   GlaxoSmithKline  Asthma       Conventional 8.0  5.2   -6%
         Seretide  /Almirall/Others              (small
                                                 molecule)
     10  Prolia    Amgen/Daiichi    Osteoporosis Biotech       0   5.2    -
                   Sankyo/GlaxoSm                (monoclonal
                   ithKline                      antibody)

Commenting on the launch of the report, Jonathan de Pass, EvaluatePharma CEO, said: "The next seven years will see huge growth in sales of complex biologics, driven in part by the premium price they can command and the industry's productivity in getting these compounds to market. We will also see generics players such as Teva achieving impressive growth due to a continued sales erosion of blockbuster products coming off patent."

"Our World Preview report gives a snapshot of the industry in 2016. This is the first time this data has been available and will provide a valuable insight into the new competitive pharma landscape beyond the patent cliff."

EvaluatePharma launched the report today at BIO 2010 in Chicago, Illinois, United States.

More information on EvaluatePharma's World Preview 2016, which assess forecasted trends in prescription drug sales, R&D spend, therapy area growth and the performance of marketed and pipeline products, can be found at EvaluatePharma's stand at BIO 2010 (2436) or via EvaluatePharma's website http://www.evaluatepharma.com

Notes to editors

About EvaluatePharma (R) - http://www.evaluatepharma.com

Set up in 1996 by former top pharma analyst Dr. Jonathan de Pass, EvaluatePharma(R) is the premier source for pharma and biotech analysis.

EvaluatePharma was the first company to supply reliable consensus forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A deals, along with analytical tools that include, Merge Company and Peer Group Analyzer and over 3000 global product NPVs (Net Present Value) linked to share price.

In 2007 EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha launched offering a valuation service designed to quantify market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation - NPV Analyzer, Calendar of Events and the daily news service EP Vantage.

Last year, Evaluate Ltd, the parent company of EvaluatePharma, was awarded the Queen's Award for Enterprise: International Trade.

SOURCE EvaluatePharma Ltd



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