The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Decreased in November

22 Dec, 2015, 23:30 ET from The Conference Board

MUMBAI, India, Dec. 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India decreased 0.5 percent in November to 103.0 (2010 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in October and a 0.7 percent decline in September. The interest rate spread, cargo handled*, industrial production: capital goods*, and M3: bank credit to commercial sector contributed positively to the LEI.  PMI: services business activity, the SENSEX stock prices index, merchandise exports, and the real effective exchange rate (36 countries) declined in November. 

"Despite November's decline in the LEI, the six-month growth rate continues to pick up, suggesting that India's rate of economic expansion is likely to last into early 2016," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board.  "However, sustainable economic growth in the longer-term requires successful implementation of more reforms to help boost business confidence."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in November to 111.0 (2010 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in October and a 1.5 percent decline in September. Total imports and industrial production* increased, while car sales: passenger vehicle declined.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

* November figure is based on The Conference Board estimates

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

NOTE: Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will be 9:00 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes














2015




6-month



Sep


Oct


Nov


May to
Nov











Leading Economic Index

102.5


103.5

r

103.0

p



  Percent Change

-0.7

r

1.0

r

-0.5

p

1.0


  Diffusion

37.5


75.0


50.0


75.0











Coincident Economic Index

109.2

r

110.7

r

111.0

p



  Percent Change

-1.5

r

1.4

r

0.3

p

2.4


  Diffusion

.0


66.7


66.7


66.7











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised





Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved





























 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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