The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

NEW YORK, May 7, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.3 percent in March to 100.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in February, and a 0.3 percent decline in January.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent in March to 97.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in February, and a 0.3 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan continues to decline, and as a result has not grown over the past six months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI has increased over the same time period and its six-month growth rate has moderately improved. Despite the recent improvements in the CEI, the deterioration in the LEI since December 2013 suggests that the risk of a contraction in the coming months is increasing.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits 
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2014

6-month


Jan

Feb

Mar

Sep to Mar










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

100.8

p

100.6

p

100.3

p



   Percent Change

-0.3

p

-0.2

p

-0.3

p

0.0

p

   Diffusion

60.0


55.0


40.0


80.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

97.0

p

96.8

p

97.3

p



   Percent Change

0.3

p

-0.2

p

0.5

p

1.0

p

   Diffusion

75.0


25.0


87.5


75.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

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