The Conference Board(R) Spain Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

BRUSSELS, Jan. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for Spain declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in November.

• The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased for a second consecutive month in November, as the capital equipment component of industrial production and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 made the largest negative contributions to the index.  Despite the recent declines, the leading economic index increased by 2.6 percent (about a 5.3 percent annual rate) between May and November 2009, a reversal from the 1.2 percent decline (about a -2.4 percent annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009.  In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become somewhat less widespread in recent months.

• The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in November, with employment* continuing to make the largest negative contribution.  Between May and November 2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 1.0 percent (about a -2.0 percent annual rate), slower than the 5.2 percent decline (about a -10.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months.  At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter, following a decline of 4.1 percent annual rate during the second quarter.  

• After rising for six consecutive months, The Conference Board LEI for Spain has fallen in both October and November.  As a result, its six-month growth rate has slowed after reaching its highest level since 1994 in September.  Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since its most recent peak in February 2008, though the pace of this decline has slowed in recent months.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that even though the pace of contraction in the economy could continue to ease, economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November.  The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are order books survey and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings and the inverted long-term government bond yield.  

With the decrease of 0.5 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.3 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September.  During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.6 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. Real imports* made the only positive contribution to the index.  Employment*, retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction and final household consumption* declined in November.

With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.3 (2004=100).   Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September.  During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.0 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, February 17, 2010 at 10:00 A.M. (Madrid Time)

In the U.S. – Wednesday ,February 17, 2010 at 4:00 A.M. (ET)

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes will not be comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

or contact us at [email protected].

SOURCE The Conference Board