Africa Backbone & Metro Fibre Networks Market 2018: A Reference Report for All Stakeholders and Investors in the African Connectivity and Internet Infrastructure Markets

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Aug 22, 2018, 09:15 ET

DUBLIN, Aug. 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

The "The Future of African Backbone & Metro Fibre Networks" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

This report is the outcome of years of accumulated research, data, and insights, provides an unprecedented view into the dynamics underpinning the African terrestrial fibre market. It is also about how, and where to generate investor value in this mishmash of opportunity and risk. And finally, and perhaps, most of all, it is about whether Africa will, at last, solve the mother of all bottlenecks, and what this means for individual countries' ability to partake in the next industrial revolution.

For the past two decades, the availability of affordable terrestrial fibre capacity has been one of the biggest obstacles to the development of the African Internet, a problem so complex few markets have managed to solve it, and many despairingly looked like they never might.

There is now urgency. Long regarded as an established, if not crippling feature in the structure of the African Internet, the terrestrial fibre gap was increasingly looking like a systemic digital development risk. Things are changing. The need to support 4G and FTTH network coverage and prepare for 5G is transforming metro capacity requirements.

Data center operators, cloud providers and global hyperscale Internet companies are upending demand models. Private fibrecos such as Liquid Telecom are building extensive cross-country fibre networks. Others, like Dark Fibre Africa and CSquared, are reimagining African metro fibre models and upsetting traditional pricing approaches. And a wide array of China-funded fibre backbone projects are transforming the African wholesale fibre landscape.

A reference report for all stakeholders and investors in the African connectivity and Internet infrastructure markets.

Executive Summary

Other digital infrastructure barriers have been gradually removed; but the terrestrial capacity infrastructure gap has persisted, stubbornly sustaining a growing African digital divide, one that sees 80%-90% of Internet traffic, usage and benefits accrue to urban, coastal cities, while the African interior remains woefully underpenetrated.
There is now urgency. Long regarded as an established, if not crippling feature in the structure of the African Internet, the terrestrial fibre gap was increasingly looking like a systemic digital development risk.
Things are changing. The need to support 4G and FTTH network coverage and prepare for 5G is transforming metro capacity requirements. Data center operators, cloud providers and global hyperscale Internet companies are upending demand models.
Private fibrecos such as Liquid Telecom are building extensive cross-country fibre networks. Others, like Dark Fibre Africa and CSquared, are reimagining African metro fibre models and upsetting traditional pricing approaches. And a wide array of China-funded fibre backbone projects are transforming the African wholesale fibre landscape.
This report, the outcome of years of accumulated research, data, and insights, provides an unprecedented view into the dynamics underpinning the African terrestrial fibre market. It is also about how, and where to generate investor value in this mishmash of opportunity and risk. And finally, and perhaps, most of all, it is about whether Africa will, at last, solve the mother of all bottlenecks, and what this means for individual countries' ability to partake in the next industrial revolution.
The report explores key questions surrounding the African terrestrial market, including the state of the current infrastructure, the nature and size of leased metro fibre demand, the scale and impact of government debt-funded fibre backbones, the evolution of metro pricing models, and what, at long last, Nigeria needs to do to unleash its considerable fibre potential.
A reference report for all stakeholders and investors in the African connectivity and Internet infrastructure markets.

The insights derived from research on terrestrial fibre markets are distilled in this report, covering critical key questions and points, including:

Why the buildout of backbones and the densification of the African metro is now a matter of urgency
Why African terrestrial fibre economics have historically been so complicated, and what's being done to fix them
How African metro geographic economics make the metro fibre case harder
Which wholesale metro markets carry the most upside
The state of the African fibre infrastructure; how much has been deployed, and by whom
The African fibre deficit: how much additional infrastructure the continent needs to meet optimal broadband coverage targets, and which markets have the biggest deficits
What is the size of demand for leased metro fibre capacity, and our long term projections
What is the impact of global Internet providers on African demand for capacity
What is the impact of data centers on metro fibre demand
What has been the impact of government backbones on fibre market dynamics
The weight of Chinese capital on African fibre buildout
Which government backbones are true broadband catalysts - and which run the risk of turning into white elephants
What, in our view, governments can do to maximize their backbone investments
Who the strongest investment plays are today, in the African terrestrial fibre market
What specifically makes Liquid Telecom, Dark Fibre Africa and CSquared stand out in this space
Why we say the African terrestrial fibre deficit has indeed been a market failure - but a government failure too
Why we say the South African fibre market is ripe for consolidation - and who the acquirers and targets might be
How Nigerian terrestrial fibre is being held back - and what should be done to fix it
How Zambia may be small - but a good example of using competition to drive fibre uptake
And much, much more..

Key Topics Covered:

INTRODUCTION: SOLVING THE MOTHER OF ALL BOTTLENECKS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key Takeaways - Lots of fibre, and more coming
Key Takeaways - Data centers, government backbones, and the upside of metro networks
Key Takeaways - Investing in African terrestrial fibre: markets and players
Summary Key Charts

PART 1 - OF SUPPLY & DEMAND FOR AFRICAN TERRESTRIAL FIBRE

DIGGING INTO THE (FIBRE) NUMBERS: THE BIG PICTURE
The African terrestrial fibre boom - the half-a-billion kilometer mark was passed in 2016
From a self-provisioning era to a competitive, "open-access" era
A more focused, more specialized business - and the rise of state-owned fibre
From do it yourself to co-investing: African buildout models are evolving

AFRICAN FIBRE DEMAND: BUILDING FOR 4G, PREPARING FOR 5G

Drivers of demand: a Summary View
Building to support 4G
The Rise of 4G - More than 100 networks, towards ~200m connections
The 5G Impact: Not here yet, but already a potential game changer for fibre backhaul
The mobile leased fibre demand equation
Mobile leased capacity demand rising by ~30% annually

AFRICAN FIBRE DEMAND: ALTERNATIVE NETWORKS, HYPERSCALE INTERNET AND THE CLOUD

The emergence of alternative broadband providers
The rise of FTTH
African data center demand: building "power plants with fibre"
The hyperscale are coming - and they need fibre
Fibre Demand Outlook - Leased fibre capacity requirements are projected to triple

PART 2 - INVESTING IN AFRICAN TERRESTRIAL FIBRE

INVESTING IN AFRICAN FIBRE: WHICH MARKETS HAVE THE MOST UPSIDE?

The African terrestrial fibre boom - South Africa leads the way
Africa terrestrial fibre - Not competitive everywhere
African open access deployments - Governments lead the way
Africa Fibre Density - More Fibre is Needed
When open access doesn't really mean open
Where is the upside? A sample market review

INVESTING IN AFRICAN FIBRE: THE RISE OF THE METRONET

Metro fibre: the next big challenge - and opportunity
Metro opportunities are uneven
An improving African metro case

INVESTING IN AFRICAN TERRESTRIAL FIBRE - THE PLAYERS

African wholesale fibre plays - Stars, upstarts, and everybody else
African Fibre Plays - Our wholesale terrestrial opportunity watchlist
Liquid Telecom: From Cape Town to Cairo - an unassailable moat
Liquid Telecom: from pure wholesale to cloud infrastructure play
Liquid Telecom: a growth story in charts
Dark Fibre Africa: Through metro fibre, South Africa's (other) most attractive independent ICT asset
Dark Fibre Africa: with 5G coming, in the right place, at the right time
Csquared: Building value by upending metro tradition

PART 3 - ADDRESSING SOME PRESSING, AND VEXING QUESTIONS

AFRICAN TERRESTRIAL FIBRE: A CASE OF PRIVATE SECTOR FAILURE?

A Vexing, but important question
Market failure, or just not good business?
Charting demand: not all mobile operators are inclined to lease fibre

ARE GOVERNMENT BACKBONES THE SOLUTION?

The rise of the state: Governments control ~30% of SSA's Installed Fibre (excl. South Africa)
African government backbones - who's building, who's financing (China, mostly)
African government backbones - broadband catalysts, or white elephants? It's complicated
How to maximize government backbone assets: Liberalize the metro
HOW MUCH FIBRE (AND MONEY) IS NEEDED?
More fibre needed - and increasingly in the metro
Charting Sub-Saharan Africa's fibre requirements

PART 4 - COUNTRY FOCUS ANALYSIS

SOUTH AFRICA - FIBRE CONSOLIDATION IS COMING

South Africa market overview
South Africa terrestrial fibre: some fundamentals
South Africa's terrestrial fibre market structure: a summary view
Evolution of South Africa's terrestrial fibre supply - the dominance of open access
South Africa terrestrial fibre demand
Charting South Africa's terrestrial capacity demand - Fibre to the Site
There's more depth here: SA's terrestrial capacity demand projected to triple
Tier 2 & 3 Provider demand will drive the market
SA's terrestrial fibre revenue outlook: all about the metro
South Africa's terrestrial fibre: a market share summary
South Africa terrestrial fibre: a positional market mapping
SA fibre market: ripe for consolidation
Playing the SA fibre market

NIGERIA - WILL THIS (POTENTIAL) FIBRE GIANT EVER RISE?

Nigeria market overview
Nigeria terrestrial fibre: some fundamentals
Nigerian terrestrial fibre supply - Scarcity masquerading as abundance
Nigerian terrestrial fibre supply - Charts
The Nigerian Potential - How much fibre does Nigeria need?
How much (open access) fibre does Nigeria need?
Why doesn't Nigeria have more fibre? The Rights of Way predicament
Heavy reliance on the private sector, no government-backed backbone
The impact of high fibre rollout costs: stunted open access
Nigeria Fibre - Undeniable Potential, Unreadable Outlook
Nigeria leased capacity market - a potential 2x-3x larger than the baseline

ZAMBIA - SMALL, WITH UPSIDE

Zambia market overview
Zambia terrestrial fibre: some fundamentals
Zambia - Despite the geographic constraints, a market with upside
Zambia's terrestrial fibre market structure: a summary view

Companies Mentioned

Airtel
Axione
BCN Nigeria
BCS
Broadband Infraco
Broadbased Nigeria
Camtel
Cell C
Csquared
Dark Fibre Africa
Facebook
FibreCo
Fibrecom
Huawei
I H S
Liquid Telecom
MainOne
Maroc Telecom
MTN
Orange
Phase III
SCPT
Seacom
Soliton Telmec
Telkom SA
Vodacom
Zamtel

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/sg49bd/africa_backbone?w=5

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