BBVA Compass economists predict more Americans will benefit from the recovery in 2014
The researchers say less fiscal uncertainty, higher consumer confidence boost economy
GDP growth in 25 states will exceed U.S. average of 2.3 percent this year, they predict
HOUSTON, Jan. 9, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- More Americans will benefit from the economic recovery this year as fiscal uncertainty gives way and consumers and business owners start to feel more confident, according to BBVA Compass economists.
"In 2014, stronger business and consumer confidence, higher household net worth, a lower drag from fiscal policy, a surge in housing prices that boost construction activity and credit growth will support stronger regional growth," Boyd Nash-Stacey, a BBVA Compass economist, wrote in a recent report. "Our baseline is for 2014 to be the first year of growth convergence in seven years, thereby allowing the recovery to reach the most Americans since 2006."
In his 2014 regional outlook, Nash-Stacey predicted that higher foreign demand — especially from Europe — and sturdier consumer confidence will boost manufacturing output, benefitting Eastern states. He expects real estate, manufacturing and energy markets will drive GDP growth in 25 states, including Utah, Oregon and Idaho, to exceed the U.S. average of 2.3 percent this year. And economic growth in Georgia, Minnesota and Pennsylvania will benefit from higher residential investment, he writes.
However, he warned that the oversupply of low-skilled labor and undersupply of high-skilled workers continue to suggest that the recovery is still fragile.
Led by BBVA Compass Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp, the bank's six-member research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The economic research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA Compass operates.
The bank's economic research group includes Kim Fraser, Jason Frederick, Marcial Nava, Shushanik Papanyan and Michael Soni. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearchUSA.
About BBVA Group
BBVA Compass is a subsidiary of BBVA Compass Bancshares Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) (MAD: BBVA). BBVA is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a solid position in Spain, is the largest financial institution in Mexico and has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt region of the United States. Its diversified business is geared toward high-growth markets and relies on technology as a key sustainable competitive advantage. Corporate responsibility is at the core of its business model. BBVA fosters financial education and inclusion, and supports scientific research and culture. It operates with the highest integrity, a long-term vision and applies best practices. The Group is present in the main sustainability indexes. More information about the BBVA Group can be found at www.bbva.com.
About BBVA Compass
BBVA Compass is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 687 branches, including 351 in Texas, 90 in Alabama, 78 in Arizona, 64 in California, 45 in Florida, 38 in Colorado and 21 in New Mexico. BBVA Compass ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (5th). BBVA Compass has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration and was recently awarded the 2013 Celent Model Bank Award for its new core banking platform. Additional information about BBVA Compass can be found at www.bbvacompass.com.
Editor's Note: BBVA Compass is a trade name of Compass Bank.
Video with caption: "Boyd Nash-Stacey, a BBVA Compass economist, discusses his 2014 U.S. regional economic outlook examining the Sunbelt, Northeast, Northwest and Texas." Video available at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W-DcAFXpiE&feature=youtu.be
SOURCE BBVA Compass