LOS ANGELES, March 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The once-predictable business cycle has become highly disrupted. Could any business have anticipated Y2K, 9/11, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Asian Financial Crises (and Bird Flu), Hurricane Katrina, tsunamis, Mad Cow, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, the U.S. liquidity crisis, and triple-digit fluctuations in energy and raw materials prices? What other disasters (natural or otherwise) loom ahead?

"Because volatility has become the norm, future scenarios must be considered, debriefed and planned for," says business strategist Marc Emmer. He recommends business leaders engage in scenario planning, so that an organization can attempt to predict future events and anticipate new markets for products and services.

According to Emmer's book "Intended Consequences," here are ten scenarios that could occur in the next 10-20 years:

1. The U.S. government takes on even more extraordinary national debt (as high has 100% of GNP by 2019), or even defaults. Runaway interest rates and the declining U.S. dollar leads to the return of sharply higher energy prices in the short term.

2. Leading oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia will shift resources to solar power, thereby leveraging the extreme climate to produce clean and sustainable energy at low cost in the long term.

3. Drought and a global fresh water shortage are rampant in developed and undeveloped countries. Water will be the currency of the next decade.

4. A significant food-borne illness kills thousands of people and threatens the food supply.

5. Technological advances in medicine will dramatically reduce the number of invasive surgeries. Stem cell research will facilitate the natural replacement of teeth and organic tissue.

6. Counterfeiting and emerging technologies lead to a cashless society.

7. The failing of the Social Security and Medicare systems will put more pressure on the Baby Boom generation to redirect their investments, potentially straining global markets and liquidity.

8. The U.S. will build "smart infrastructure" including smart roads and smart grids that control the flow of traffic, identify bridge failures, etc.

9. Shareholder contempt will lead to significant changes in corporate tax law and governance. Government agencies are reorganized to provide much stricter oversight.

10. Much higher taxes on the wealthy with the highest marginal rates as high as 50%.

Emmer advocates that every business should consider scenarios and have a contingency plan.

"It is beyond comprehension that Countrywide, IndyMac and other lenders did not plan for the possibility of a collapse of the U.S. housing market, that airlines did not prepare for volatile oil prices, or that automobile manufacturers were not prepared for a spike in demand of fuel-efficient cars," adds Emmer. "Converging factors can bring about change quickly."

"Intended Consequences" is packed with practical and proven methods used in the creation of breakthrough strategies, challenging the underlying assumptions about how strategy is formed and executed.

This release was issued through eReleases(TM).  For more information, visit http://www.ereleases.com.

SOURCE Marc Emmer

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