CHANTILLY, Va., Nov. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- In the midyear update to its Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast (2012-2017), BIA/Kelsey projects total U.S. local media ad revenues to grow from $132.9 billion in 2013 to $151.5 billion in 2017, representing a 2.8 percent compound annual growth rate, growing faster than the firm originally forecast earlier this year.
Faster growth in online/digital advertising revenues will drive that faster overall growth, increasing at a 13.8 percent CAGR from $26.5 billion in 2013 to $44.5 billion in 2017. That compares with a CAGR of 0.1 percent during the same period for traditional advertising revenues, which will remain flat, growing slightly from $106.4 billion in 2013 to $107 billion in 2017.
"A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2014 and through the end of the forecast period," said Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. "A slightly improving U.S. economy, positive outlook by investors, the 2014 elections and Olympics, as well as ad spending around the Affordable Health Care Act, which comes out of the local ad pie, will all contribute to increased local ad spending."
Location targeted mobile advertising revenues, which are growing at a faster pace than overall mobile advertising, will increase from $2.9 billion in 2013 to $10.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 52 percent of overall U.S. mobile ad spending in 2017. Total mobile ad spending will grow from $7 billion in 2013 to $20.7 billion in 2017.
For the first time, BIA/Kelsey's forecast breaks out the share of ad revenues attributed to print and over-the-air (O-T-A) versus online/digital for Yellow Pages, newspapers, television and radio. The following represent individual media segment shares of the overall local media market by 2017 and how those shares have moved from their 2013 position:
- Newspapers Print: decreasing to 9.1% in 2017
- Newspapers Online/Digital: remaining steady at 2.4% in 2017
- Yellow Pages Print: decreasing to 1.5% in 2017
- Yellow Pages Digital/Online: increasing to 1.9% in 2017
- Radio O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 10.6% in 2017
- Radio Online/Digital: growing to 0.5% in 2017
- TV O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 14.6% in 2017
- TV Online/Digital: growing to 0.7% in 2017
The forecast update provides context for the interactive local media opportunity that is the focus of BIA/Kelsey's upcoming LEADING IN LOCAL: Interactive Local Media conference, Dec. 10-12, in San Francisco. For more information about LEADING IN LOCAL: Interactive Local Media, including the complete agenda, speakers, sponsors, companies attending and online registration, visit http://www.biakelsey.com/LeadingInLocalSanFrancisco.
About the BIA/Kelsey U.S. Local Media Forecast
BIA/Kelsey defines the local media advertising marketplace as those media that provide local audiences to all types of advertisers. BIA/Kelsey's Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast (2012-2017) draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace. The forecast is issued annually each spring and updated in the fall.
BIA/Kelsey custom advisory service clients receive a full forecast report. For information on gaining access to the forecast by becoming a BIA/Kelsey client or for details on purchasing the forecast, contact Steve Passwaiter, VP, business development, at firstname.lastname@example.org or (703) 818-2425.
BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research and forecasts, Custom Advisory Services and conferences. Since 1983 BIA/Kelsey has been a resource to the media, mobile advertising, telecommunications, Yellow Pages and electronic directory markets, as well as to government agencies, law firms and investment companies looking to understand trends and revenue drivers. BIA/Kelsey's annual conferences draw executives from across industries seeking expert guidance on how companies are finding innovative ways to grow. Additional information is available at http://www.biakelsey.com, on the company's Local Media Watch blog, Twitter (http://twitter.com/BIAKelsey) and Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/biakelsey).