Black Friday Deals Will Contribute To Strong November 2015 New-Car Sales, According To Kelley Blue Book

General Motors Boosted by Pickup Truck Lineup; Volkswagen to Report Challenging November

24 Nov, 2015, 15:27 ET from Kelley Blue Book

IRVINE, Calif., Nov. 24, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to remain flat year-over-year to a total of 1.3 million units in November 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. 

"Black Friday deals on vehicles have grown in popularity in recent years, and should be a big contributor to this month's sales results," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "However, industry incentive spending has been on the rise in recent months, topping $3,000 on average since July 2015, so we are carefully watching to see whether consumer demand can sustain such high sales levels without elevated manufacturer spending."

While sales are expected to break even with last November's totals, this primarily is due to a calendar quirk with two fewer selling days in November 2015 compared to last year. At 1.3 million units, this month will mark the highest November sales volume since 2001. Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 17.4 million units overall, a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase and the highest industry total on record.  

Key Highlights for Estimated November 2015 Sales Forecast:

  • In November, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to reach 1,300,000 units, up 0.1 percent from November 2014 and down 10.5 percent from October 2015.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November 2015 is estimated to be 17.8 million, up from 17 million in November 2014 and down from 18.1 million in October 2015.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 84.5 percent of volume in November 2015, down from 85.5 percent in November 2014.

General Motors Boosted by Pickup Truck Lineup; Volkswagen to Report Challenging November

While Kelley Blue Book anticipates most automaker sales to remain flat in November, General Motors could post positive numbers, with expected growth of roughly 2 percent. General Motors has been boosted by its pickup truck lineup this year, which is up 29 percent. Even the recent additions of the mid-size Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon have not taken any steam away from the full-size pickup models, which are up 13 percent.

"Volkswagen Group, on the heels of another diesel issue involving its higher-end models, appears to have a challenging November," said Fleming. "Following an incentive-heavy October that cleared out many 2015 gas-powered models, a shorter supply of vehicles and expanded stop-sales on diesel models will contribute to a slower month of sales."


Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Nov-15

Nov-14

YOY %

Nov-15

Nov-14

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

230,000

225,818

1.9%

17.7%

17.4%

0.3%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

188,000

186,334

0.9%

14.5%

14.4%

0.1%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

181,000

183,346

-1.3%

13.9%

14.1%

-0.2%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

171,000

170,839

0.1%

13.2%

13.2%

0.0%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

119,000

121,814

-2.3%

9.2%

9.4%

-0.2%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

104,000

103,188

0.8%

8.0%

7.9%

0.1%

Hyundai-Kia

98,000

98,608

-0.6%

7.5%

7.6%

-0.1%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

48,000

53,064

-9.5%

3.7%

4.1%

-0.4%

Total 3

1,300,000

1,298,479

0.1%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements





2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights





3 Includes brands not shown





 

Compact Utilities Continue Growth Streak; Mid-Size Utility Segment Buoyed by Redesigned Honda Pilot

Compact utilities remain the hottest segment in the industry, with market share expected to grow 3 percent year-over-year in November. With vehicles averaging 47 days on dealers' lots, this segment never has been more popular, and in fact, has surpassed compact and mid-size cars to become the biggest segment in the industry. 

Mid-size utilities are another segment whose market share may grow a full percentage point in November. With most of the attention focused on the smaller utilities, mid-size utilities have averaged double-digit growth this year, and will be buoyed in November by the redesigned Honda Pilot. 


Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Oct-15

Oct-14

YOY %

Oct-15

Oct-14

YOY %

Compact SUV/Crossover

196,000

155,569

26.0%

15.1%

12.0%

3.1%

Mid-Size Car

172,000

174,262

-1.3%

13.2%

13.4%

-0.2%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

164,000

179,290

-8.5%

12.6%

13.8%

-1.2%

Compact Car

162,000

173,905

-6.8%

12.5%

13.4%

-0.9%

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

155,000

141,209

9.8%

11.9%

10.9%

1.0%

Total 2

1,300,000

1,298,479

0.1%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights




2 Includes segments not shown




 

There are 23 sales days in November 2015, compared to 25 sales days in November 2014.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. 

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2015 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for four consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company.

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book



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