Black Friday to Set Pace for Potentially Record-Breaking Car Sales in November, Forecasts Edmunds.com

Nov 23, 2015, 15:42 ET from Edmunds.com

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Car shopping destination Edmunds.com today issued its November 2015 new car sales forecast, which projects that 1,331,415 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 18.3 million. Both the volume and SAAR are threatening to be the biggest on record for the month of November, eclipsing the 1,324,542 new cars sold in November 2001 for a SAAR of 17.7 million. The projected sales will be an 8.3 percent decrease from October 2015, but a 2.5 percent increase from November 2014.

"Not even a decade ago, November was a notoriously slow sales month, and it typically ranked as the third worst month for sales in the calendar year," says Edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "But in recent years, car dealers have joined other retailers to embrace Black Friday as a big sales driver. Since 2010, November has delivered one of the three best SAARs in each year, and last year, Thanksgiving weekend accounted for twice as many sales as any other weekend in November. We expect to see both trends continue this year."

 

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER







Sales Volume

November 2015 Forecast

November 2014

October 2015

Change from November 2014

Change from October 2015

GM

231,035

225,816

262,993

2.3%

-12.2%

Toyota

192,343

183,346

204,045

4.9%

-5.7%

Ford

191,126

186,336

213,105

2.6%

-10.3%

Chrysler Group

176,647

170,839

195,545

3.4%

-9.7%

Honda

118,692

121,814

131,651

-2.6%

-9.8%

Nissan

105,342

103,188

116,047

2.1%

-9.2%

Hyundai/Kia

102,256

98,608

110,049

3.7%

-7.1%

VW/Audi

41,284

48,246

48,087

-14.4%

-14.1%

Industry

1,331,415

1,298,436

1,451,722

2.5%

-8.3%


*NOTE: November 2015 had 23 selling days, November 2014 had 25 and October 2015 had 28.

 

Despite this month's soaring sales forecast, Edmunds projects that Volkswagen will continue to struggle as a result of its ongoing "Dieselgate" crisis. Edmunds forecasts that VW/Audi sales in November will be down 14.4 percent year over year, with VW brand sales alone falling 26.9 percent over the same period.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.4 million vehicles in November, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.1 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.77 million used cars will be sold in November, for a SAAR of 38.5 million (compared to 3.17 million – or a SAAR of 37.9 million – used car sales in October).

 

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER







Market Share

November 2015 Forecast

November 2014

October 2015

Change from November 2014

Change from October 2015

GM

17.4%

17.4%

18.1%

0.0%

-0.8%

Toyota

14.4%

14.1%

14.1%

0.3%

0.4%

Ford

14.4%

14.4%

14.7%

0.0%

-0.3%

Chrysler Group

13.3%

13.2%

13.5%

0.1%

-0.2%

Honda

8.9%

9.4%

9.1%

-0.5%

-0.2%

Nissan

7.9%

7.9%

8.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Hyundai/Kia

7.7%

7.6%

7.6%

0.1%

0.1%

VW/Audi

3.1%

3.7%

3.3%

-0.6%

-0.2%

 

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc.

Car shopping destination Edmunds.com serves nearly 20 million visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Shoppers can browse not only dealer inventory, but also vehicle reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories on both Edmunds' wired site and on its acclaimed mobile apps.  Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of "The World's Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive" by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions on its free Live Help Line at 1-855-782-4711 and help@edmunds.com, via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich., but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTubePinterestLinkedIn, Instagram, Google+ and Flipboard.

Contact:
Aaron Lewis
Edmunds.com Corporate Communications
www.Edmunds.com
Media Hotline: 310-309-4900
pr@edmunds.com

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SOURCE Edmunds.com



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