Cars.com Projects Highest February SAAR Since 2008

Chief Analyst Jesse Toprak Announces February Sales Projections, Discusses Continued Growth in Small SUV Segment

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Feb 26, 2014, 08:00 ET

CHICAGO, Feb. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- As the month comes to a close and automakers gear up to report February's sales on Monday, March 3, Jesse Toprak, chief analyst for Cars.com announces his predications. New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 1.1 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.2 million units and an estimated 15.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). If confirmed, these numbers would reflect the highest sales rate since February 2008.

"As the industry continues to gain strength, February car sales have the potential to reach their highest rate in six years," said Toprak. "The positive impact of the recovering stock market has been dampened by ongoing severe weather conditions, however year-over-year new-vehicle sales show that the industry is pushing to surpass the mark set in 2013."

According to Toprak's analysis, the compact SUV segment is seeing a particularly high increase in demand. "Consumers can't get enough small SUVs," said Toprak. "The segment's market share reached a record high 18 percent this month, up from 15 percent this time last year."

Key highlights for estimated February 2014 sales forecast:

New light-vehicle sales in the United States (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,205,140 units, up 1.1 percent from February 2013 and up 19.3 percent from January 2014
The February 2014 forecast translates into a SAAR of 15.4 million new car sales, up 0.5 percent from February 2013 and up 1.0 percent over January 2014
Retail sales are expected to account for 79.3 percent in February 2014, down 4.2 percent from February 2013

Automotive sales forecasts for February 2014 for the 'Big Eight' manufacturers:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer	February 2014 Sales Forecast	YoY	MoM
Chrysler Group	146,842	5.6%	15.5%
Ford	181,040	-7.3%	17.9%
GM	214,126	-4.5%	24.9%
Honda	110,805	2.6%	20.9%
Hyundai/Kia	92,263	-1.7%	13.9%
Nissan	107,685	8.1%	19.0%
Toyota	169,565	1.9%	15.9%
Volkswagen	38,208	-15.4%	3.5%
Industry Total	1,205,140	1.1%	19.3%

Market Share

Manufacturer	February 2014 Sales Forecast	Jan-14	Feb-13
Chrysler Group	12.2%	12.6%	11.7%
Ford	15.0%	15.2%	16.4%
GM	17.8%	17.0%	18.8%
Honda	9.2%	9.1%	9.1%
Hyundai/Kia	7.7%	8.0%	7.9%
Nissan	8.9%	9.0%	8.4%
Toyota	14.1%	14.5%	14.0%
Volkswagen	3.2%	3.7%	3.8%

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