Central & Eastern Europe Smart Metering Market To Reach $10.3 billion by 2023

WASHINGTON, April 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Several Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) countries represent compelling opportunities for smart grid investments but are often overshadowed by their Western European neighbors. Smart meter spending alone in the CEE region will reach $10.3 billion cumulatively by 2023, with almost all electric utilities completing full smart meter deployments over that time period. A new study released today by Northeast Group, LLC – Central & Eastern Europe Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2013-2023) – forecasts the growth of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), or smart metering, in ten CEE countries over the next decade. The study includes details on the already announced smart meter projects and the associated vendors, targets and deadlines set at the national and European Union (EU) level, and a forecast of annual deployment statistics across all ten countries.

"Central & Eastern Europe is the most advanced region among emerging market countries for smart grid and smart meter deployments," according to Northeast Group. "All ten countries covered in this study are expected to adopt EU smart meter regulations over the course of this decade, and some already have extensive smart grid roadmaps in place. At the same time, with lower electricity demand levels compared with Western Europe, it's not clear if all CEE countries will meet the EU targets. Each country's unique energy sector drivers are determining whether or not it will meet prescribed targets."

The European Union has mandated that all member states deploy smart meters to 80% of customers by 2020, if economically feasible. All EU countries were meant to complete smart metering cost-benefit analyses by September 2012, but fewer than half of the ten CEE countries have done so. Most CEE countries claim they intend to meet the EU timelines, but have not yet officially transposed EU regulations into their national legislation.

"The EU regulations are still the driving force in the region," continued Northeast Group. "The EU provides guidelines on setting roadmaps, creating interoperability standards, ensuring data protection, and establishing costs and benefits for all stakeholders. These are advantages that many countries in other emerging market regions do not enjoy. Some CEE countries may miss the EU 2020 deadline, but almost all CEE countries will have a nearly full deployment of smart meters by the end of our forecast period in 2023."

Indeed, several utilities across Central & Eastern Europe already have plans in place. Estonia plans to deploy smart meters to 100% of its customers by 2017, while utilities in Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia also have plans for full smart meter rollouts. In countries where cost-benefit analyses have been conducted, the result has almost always been positive. Once more of these analyses are completed, the EU mandate will begin compelling stronger regulatory action at the national level. This is expected within the next year or two.

"It is not surprising that most CEE countries find net positive benefits from their cost-benefit analyses," added Northeast Group. "Electricity prices are among the highest in the world, so customers can benefit from having greater control over their electricity consumption. Meanwhile, distribution loss rates are much higher and the duration of power outages in the CEE region are much longer compared with Western Europe, so utilities stand to gain from metering upgrades. Additionally, as these countries add greater percentages of renewable sources of energy, grid upgrades are necessary to handle the intermittency of these resources."

The quickly developing market has attracted a number of both local and international vendors. Northeast Group's study includes detailed assessment of vendors based in Central & Eastern Europe, as well as the regional market activity of the leading Western European, American, and Asian vendors.

Northeast Group's study forecasts five sub-segments of the AMI market, including meter hardware, communications, IT, professional services, and installation costs for ten countries across the CEE region. Countries covered include:

  • Bulgaria;
  • Czech Republic;
  • Estonia;
  • Hungary;
  • Latvia;
  • Lithuania;
  • Poland;
  • Romania;
  • Slovakia;
  • Slovenia.

The study also includes a discussion of recent smart grid activity and potential in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. In addition to AMI market forecasts, the study surveys activity in the other smart grid segments of distribution automation, wide area measurement, and home energy management.

Northeast Group's Central & Eastern Europe Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2013 – 2023) study is approximately 180 pages in length with over 130 tables, charts and graphics. It includes a 14-page stand-alone executive summary for a quick synthesis, full regional and country-by-country forecasts including analysis of regulatory frameworks, drivers, and utility and vendor activity. The study also includes an extensive appendix including full EU regulations, examples of CEE cost-benefit analyses, details on electric vehicle and renewable energy metrics, and other dynamics driving the smart grid market in the region. To order a copy of the study, please visit the website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: ben.gardner@northeast-group.com

ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries. 

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will the smart meter market in Central & Eastern Europe become over the next decade?
  • What are the results of cost-benefit analyses conducted to-date in CEE countries?
  • Which utilities already have large-scale smart meter rollouts planned and when will they be complete?
  • Which countries have the most complete incentives for electric vehicles and distributed generation?
  • Who are the local vendors already active in the CEE smart grid market?

Unique characteristics of this study:

  • Full details of industry structure, regulatory framework, market dynamics, and utility activity for ten Central & Eastern European countries;
  • Section detailing size, partners, and activity of smart grid vendors based in the CEE region;
  • Full forecasts and datasets of five AMI market segments for ten CEE countries (2013-2023);
  • Comprehensive comparison of smart grid indicators throughout emerging markets;
  • Detailed analysis of multiple smart grid drivers including business cases built on distribution loss reduction, renewable energy incentives, and electric vehicle metrics.

 

Table of Contents


i. Executive Summary

1

ii. Methodology

15

1. Introduction

17


1.1 What is smart grid?

17


1.2 Smart grid's role in regional interconnection

23


1.3 How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world?

25

2. Central & Eastern Europe smart grid snapshot

30


2.1 The region in comparison

31


2.2 Regional drivers

33


2.3 Regional challenges

41


2.4 Most recent developments

43

3. Regional market forecast

45

4. Poland

50


4.1 Electricity industry structure

52


4.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

54


4.3 Market forecast

57


4.4 Utility activity

59

5. Estonia

62


5.1 Electricity industry structure

64


5.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

65


5.3 Market forecast

68


5.4 Utility activity

70

6. Slovenia

71


6.1 Electricity industry structure

73


6.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

74


6.3 Market forecast

76


6.4 Utility activity

78

7. Romania

79


7.1 Electricity industry structure

81


7.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

82


7.3 Market forecast

84


7.4 Utility activity

86

8. Hungary

88


8.1 Electricity industry structure

90


8.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

91


8.3 Market forecast

93


8.4 Utility activity

96

9. Czech Republic

97


9.1 Electricity industry structure

99


9.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

100


9.3 Market forecast

102


9.4 Utility activity

104

10. Slovakia

106


10.1 Electricity industry structure

108


10.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

110


10.3 Market forecast

111


10.4 Utility activity

113

11. Bulgaria

115


11.1 Electricity industry structure

117


11.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

118


11.3 Market forecast

120


11.4 Utility activity

121

12. Latvia


123


12.1 Electricity industry structure

125


12.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

126


12.3 Market forecast

127


12.4 Utility activity

129

13. Lithuania


130


13.1 Electricity industry structure

132


13.2 Smart metering regulatory environment

133


13.3 Market forecast

135


13.4 Utility activity

136

14. The rest of the region

137

15. Vendor activity

142


15.1 CEE-based vendors

142


15.2 International vendors active in smart grid in Central & Eastern Europe

149

16. Conclusion

154

17. Appendix

155


17.1 List of companies covered in this report

155


17.2 List of acronyms

156


17.3 Renewable energy incentives in CEE

157


17.4 Electric vehicle metrics in CEE

159


17.5 Payback on smart metering from loss reduction in CEE

160


17.6 Cost-benefit analysis examples in CEE

162


17.7 Select EU smart grid regulations

164

                                                                                                                                                              

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables




Central & Eastern Europe smart grid: key takeaways

3

EU smart grid-related regulations

4

20-20-20 targets for CEE countries

4

Smart grid drivers and barriers in Central & Eastern Europe

5

Renewable energy potential and incentives in CEE

6

Distribution losses and power outages in CEE

6

Smart metering cost-benefit analyses completed in CEE

7

Announced smart meter deployment plans in CEE

7

Leading smart metering vendors in CEE

8

CEE-based smart grid vendors

8

AMI forecast by country

9

CEE smart meter penetration rate

9

AMI forecast data by country

10

Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain

17

Figure 1.2: Smart grid model

18

Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Central & Eastern Europe

20

Table 1.2: Electric vehicle subsidies in CEE

21

Table 1.3: Demand response options

22

Figure 1.3: Transmission interconnections in CEE

24

Figure 1.4: Smart grid activity in emerging markets

26

Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential

31

Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption

32

Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions

32

Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth

33

Box 2.1: EU Directive 2009/EC/72

34

Figure 2.5: CEE compliance with EU smart meter regulations

35

Table 2.1: European Commission recommendations for smart meter requirements

36

Figure 2.6: Electricity prices in emerging markets

36

Figure 2.7: Electricity prices in the EU

37

Table 2.2: 20-20-20 targets for CEE countries

37

Figure 2.8: Renewable sources of energy in CEE

38

Figure 2.9: Distribution losses in CEE

39

Figure 2.10: Annual minutes lost to power outages

39

Table 2.11 Smart grid market drivers and barriers in CEE

40

Figure 2.12: Average annual GDP growth in CEE

41

Figure 2.13: Status of planned smart meter rollouts in CEE

43

Figure 3.1: Timeline of smart grid developments in CEE

45

Figure 3.2: AMI forecast by country

46

Table 3.1: AMI forecast data by country

46

Figure 3.3: CEE smart meter penetration rate

47

Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in CEE

47

Figure 3.5: Planned, forecasted, and targeted smart meter deployments in CEE

47

Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown

48

Figure 3.7 Per-endpoint smart meter cost estimates

48

Figure 3.8: AMI forecast by segment

49

Figure 3.9: AMI forecast data by segment

49

Table 4.1: Poland key data

50

Figure 4.1: Poland AMI penetration rate

50

Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Poland

51

Figure 4.2: New and decommissioned generation in Poland

52

Box 4.1: Political risk in Poland

53

Table 4.3: Poland's 2011 smart grid roadmap

55

Figure 4.3: Poland AMI forecast

58

Table 4.4: Poland AMI forecast data

58

Table 4.5: Smart meter deployments in Polish utilities

59

Figure 4.4: Energa's planned deployments

60

Table 5.1: Estonia key data

62

Figure 5.1: Estonia AMI penetration rate

62

Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Estonia

63

Box 5.1: Political risk in Estonia

65

Figure 5.3: Estonia's E-mobility operating model

67

Figure 5.2: Estonia AMI forecast

69

Table 5.3: Estonia AMI forecast data

69

Table 6.1: Slovenia key data

71

Figure 6.1: Slovenia AMI penetration rate

71

Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovenia

72

Box 6.1: Political risk in Slovenia

74

Figure 6.2: Estimated monthly power bills in CEE

76

Figure 6.3: Slovenia AMI forecast

77

Table 6.3: Slovenia AMI forecast data

77

Table 7.1: Romania key data

79

Figure 7.1: Romania AMI penetration rate

79

Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Romania

80

Box 7.1: Political risk in Romania

82

Table 7.3: Romania's smart grid roadmap

83

Figure 7.2: Romania AMI forecast

84

Table 7.4: Romania AMI forecast data

85

Figure 7.3: Enel AMI deployments in Romania

86

Table 8.1: Hungary key data

88

Figure 8.1: Hungary AMI penetration rate

88

Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Hungary

89

Box 8.1: Political risk in Hungary

91

Figure 8.2: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan

92

Table 8.3: Modified regulations for Hungary's smart meter rollout

93

Figure 8.3: Public support for smart metering in Hungary

94

Figure 8.4: Hungary AMI forecast

95

Table 8.4: Hungary AMI forecast data

95

Table 9.1: Czech Republic key data

97

Figure 9.1: Czech Republic AMI penetration rate

97

Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Czech Republic

98

Box 9.1: Political risk in Czech Republic

100

Table 9.3: Wind and solar feed-in tariffs in CEE

101

Figure 9.2: Planned renewable energy development in the Czech Republic

102

Figure 9.3: Czech Republic AMI forecast

103

Table 9.3: Czech Republic AMI forecast data

103

Table 10.1: Slovakia key data

106

Figure 10.1: Slovakia AMI penetration rate

106

Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovakia

107

Box 10.1: Political risk in Slovakia

109

Figure 10.2: Slovakia AMI forecast

112

Table 10.3: Slovakia AMI forecast data

112

Figure 10.3: Slovakia's positive smart metering cost-benefit analysis

113

Table 11.1: Bulgaria key data

115

Figure 11.1: Bulgaria AMI penetration rate

115

Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Bulgaria

116

Box 11.1: Political risk in Bulgaria

118

Table 11.3: Ease of business rankings

119

Figure 1.2: Bulgaria AMI forecast

120

Table 11.3: Bulgaria AMI forecast data

121

Table 12.1: Latvia key data

123

Figure 12.1: Latvia AMI penetration rate

123

Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Latvia

124

Box 12.1: Political risk in Latvia

126

Figure 12.2: Latvia AMI forecast

128

Table 12.3: Latvia AMI forecast data

128

Table 13.1: Lithuania key data

130

Figure 13.1: Lithuania AMI penetration rate

130

Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Lithuania

131

Box 13.1: Political risk in Lithuania

133

Figure 13.2: Renewable energy goals in Lithuania

134

Figure 13.3: Lithuania AMI forecast

135

Table 13.3: Lithuania AMI forecast data

135

Table 14.1: Key indicators from other CEE countries

137

Table 14.1: EBRD smart grid loans to former Yugoslav countries

139

Figure 15.1: Leading smart grid vendors in CEE

142

Figure 15.2: Leading emerging market-based smart grid vendors

143

Figure 15.3: Cities with leading smart grid vendors in CEE

144

Figure 15.4: Number of CEE-based vendors by size and segment

145

Table 15.1: Additional smart grid vendors based in CEE

149

Table 16.1: Next steps and necessary actions

154

 

SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC



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