China Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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China Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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BMI View: The Chinese petrochemicals sector is seeing slightly more robust growth, particularly in olefins, but this is insufficient to absorb ongoing increases in capacities. Combined with feedstock cost rises, this will cause a narrowing of margins. However, coal-to-methanol production should ease the situation over the medium term and reduce net imports in some segments.The total value of petrochemical production in China grew 11.6% y-o-y to CNY1.72trn during the first two months of the year with the value of imports rising 24.1% to US$19.6bn and exports growing 5% to US $13.8bn. In the first four months of the year, ethylene output rose by 3.3% y-o-y to 5.3mn tonnes while primary plastics output grew 9.6% to 18.27mn tonnes and plastic products output rose by 2.2% to 18.96mn tonnes. Growth in ethylene output came after a dismal performance in 2012, when production fell by just over 2% to under 15mn tonnes, in spite of 20% growth in cracker capacity to 21.56mn tonnes.BMI Industry View 7SWOT 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 14Industry Forecast 15Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017 20Macroeconomic Forecasts 21Macroeconomic Forecast 21What Does This All Mean? 24The Alternative Scenario: Growth Collapses, Crisis Averted? 26Market Implications: Staying Underweight Financials 27Table: China Economic Activity 29Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 30Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 30Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 33Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33Market Overview 35Industry Trends And Developments 37Upstream 38Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity 38Coal-Based Chemicals 39Sinopec 41PetroChina 43CNOOC 44Aromatics And Derivatives 45Other Projects 46Regulatory Developments 47Company Profile 50China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) 50PetroChina 54Table: PetroChina Financial Results, In Millions Of CNY 57Regional Overview 59Asia Overview 59Global Industry Overview 63Global Industry Overview 63Global Oil Product Price Outlook 69Methodology 69Crude Price Forecasts 70Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 70Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 70Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 73Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 74Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 78Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 79Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 80Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 80Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 81Demographic Forecast 83Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 84Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 85Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 86Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 86Glossary 87Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 87Methodology 88Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 88Cross Checks 89Risk/Reward Ratings 89Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale 90Weighting 91Table: Weighting Of Indicators 91

To order this report:Petrochemical Industry: China Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013

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