MCLEAN, Va., April 19, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- In their most recent report on the used commercial truck market, analysts at NADA Used Guide — a division of J.D. Power and Associates — observed notable changes in retail prices and inventory in the first quarter of 2016. Additionally, the report contains a special study which focuses on automated versus manual transmission prices in the Class 8 sleeper segment.
The free monthly Guidelines report notes the Q1 2016 final retail transaction price of Class 8 trucks fell dramatically as dealers cut prices to move aging inventory. Until recently, the retail to auction spread had been wider than any time since recovery from the Great Recession.
Depreciation Relaxes in the Auction Lanes for Some Model Years
The wholesale auction channel also saw changes in selling prices during the first quarter of the year. Depreciation relaxed a bit in the auction lanes as NADA Used Car Guide's benchmark group of 3 – 5-year-old sleeper tractors brought 2.5 percent less money than Q4 2015 on average. Newer trucks fared worse than their older counterparts as 2013 model year trucks held onto 13.1 percent less money quarter versus quarter. Conversely, 2011 model year trucks actually brought 11.5 percent more money quarter versus quarter. This means pricing for the highest-volume models three to five years of age is coalescing around a single price point. This is an unusual phenomenon that suggests the market is still finding a comfort level with the increased volume of available trucks.
Quarterly Auction Volume Drops
The volume of trucks sold at auction was 37.5 percent lower in the first quarter, although one particular model is still cycling through that channel in large numbers. Volume should stabilize going forward, and the industry will continue to adapt to the surplus of available iron.
In the retail channel, three to five year-old trucks lost about 10 percent of their value from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. Year over year, that cohort brings about 15 percent less money.
Retail Sales Volume Climbs in March
Chris Visser, commercial truck senior analyst and product manager at NADA Used Car Guide said, "Retail sales volume was up mildly in March, driven mainly by price reductions on inventory."
Analysts Forecast Moderate Price Erosion in Second Quarter
In general, NADA Used Car Guide's commercial truck analysts forecast moderate price erosion in the retail and wholesale channels in the second quarter, on the order of 4 – 5 percent per month. Fundamental economic measures continue to point mildly upward, so the devaluation is due entirely to supply.
The report concludes with a special study which looks at pricing of automated versus manual transmissions in the Class 8 sleeper segment.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide® has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. Its editorial team collects and analyzes over 1 million combined automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.
Ryan Morris, Sr. Manager, Public Relations
NADA Used Car Guide®, a division of J.D. Power and Associates
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SOURCE NADA Used Car Guide