Despite Generic Erosion of Current Market Leaders, the Asthma Market Will Remain Steady Over the Next Decade Largely Owing to the Forecasted Launch of a New Class of Therapy

Sep 22, 2015, 09:55 ET from Decision Resources Group

BURLINGTON, Mass., Sept. 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the market for asthma will remain relatively flat, increasing slightly from $15.9 billion in 2014 to $16.2 billion in 2024 across the seven major markets (the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan). Although the current market leaders, including GlaxoSmithKline's Advair/Seretide/Adoair and AstraZeneca's Symbicort will undergo substantial generic erosion, asthma sales in later years will be driven by the expected launches of six novel anticytokine agents—GlaxoSmithKline's Nucala (mepolizumab), Teva's Cinquil (reslizumab), AstraZeneca's benralizumab and tralokinumab, Roche/Chugai's lebrikizumab, and Sanofi/Regeneron's dupilumab,—as well as uptake of the once-daily LABA/ICS combination GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance's Breo/Relvar and Boehringer Ingelheim's Spiriva, both of which recently won asthma labels.

Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Asthma:

  • The launch of six novel biologics are forecast to double the sales of biologics over the forecast period from just over $1 billion in 2014 to $2 billion in 2024.
  • GlaxoSmithKline's Nucala, is forecast to be the first anticytokine therapy in asthma and its first-to-market status will drive the drug to be the sales leader among the six anticytokines that we forecast to launch within the next decade.
  • Several branded-generic and generic versions of current market-leaders, GlaxoSmithKline's Advair/Seretide/Adoair and AstraZeneca's Symbicort, are expected to erode overall sales of LABA/ICS fixed-dose combinations and this will not be fully compensated by the sales of newly launched once-daily GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance's Breo/Relvar.
  • The latter half of our forecast period will welcome a new class of triple LABA/LAMA/ICS inhaler therapies, including Chiesi's Triskel (formoterol/glycopyrronium/beclomethasone) and Novartis's QVM 149 (indacaterol/glycopyrronium/mometasone), which will offer convenience of three components in one inhaler device.

Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Eun-Jin Yang, Ph.D.:

  • "With expected launches of new classes of asthma therapies, including six biologics and also the first triple combinations, the landscape for asthma is due to undergo a substantial change during the forecast period. We expect these newer therapies to share the same target population: the small number of severe patients who are inadequately controlled on available therapies. Thus, the market competition will become extremely intense but limited within this patient segment."
  • "At present, no well-defined guidance for identifying patients who will best respond to each of the IL-5, IL-13, or IL-4/IL-13 antagonists exists. This makes it unclear how any individual emerging anticytokine should be incorporated into the asthma treatment algorithm and also how these compare to one another."

For more information on purchasing this report, please email questions@teamDRG.com.

About Decision Resources Group
Decision Resources Group offers best-in-class, high-value data, analytics and insights products and services to the healthcare industry, delivered by more than 900 employees across 14 global locations. DRG provides the pharmaceutical, biotech, medical device, financial services and payer industries with the tools, insights and advice they need to compete and thrive in an increasingly complex and value-based marketplace. DecisionResourcesGroup.com.

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