SAN DIEGO, Oct. 1, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Weather software innovator EarthRisk Technologies is breaking new ground with their latest forecasting product. Released today, TempRisk Apollo is the only product of its kind used to quantify weather risk up to five weeks ahead. It presents unique, objective weather data in an intuitive and dynamic online interface that gives customers daily access to the odds that heat and cold events may occur up to 40 days in advance. TempRisk Apollo is the next generation of EarthRisk's flagship temperature prediction product, TempRisk.
Weather-affected industries, especially energy and natural gas trading firms, use TempRisk Apollo to make daily investment decisions based on temperature trends across the US and Europe.
"TempRisk Apollo redefines the window through which the world looks at weather risk and decision making." said EarthRisk Technologies CEO John Plavan. "For the first time, a decision maker can see the probability of the full range of outcomes, as well as the relative differences to the more traditional forecast models all at one time, in an easily digestible interface. In a world where better, faster decision making is paramount, this new level of weather risk analysis can be a game changer."
"With TempRisk Apollo, EarthRisk Technologies has yet again raised the standard for medium to long-range weather forecasts within the commodities sector," said Adam O'Shay, president and head of trading at Leeward Pointe Capital, LLC. "Leveraging TempRisk Apollo at Leeward Pointe Capital has transformed our trading and analytics. It allows for targeted probabilistic temperature risk-assessment for all critical areas related to the North American natural gas market."
A core difference that makes TempRisk Apollo more skillful than previous versions is it integrates numerical forecast guidance from external models such as the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) into its algorithm to provide users a more comprehensive and robust view of weather risk. Blending TempRisk's skill in forecasting temperature beyond day 12 with existing weather models that perform best in the 1-12 day range, TempRisk Apollo is a uniquely optimized weather product.
Another improvement: Where earlier TempRisk versions showed the probability of extreme heat or extreme cold events, TempRisk Apollo shows a full spectrum of probable temperature events (much below, below, slightly below, normal, slightly above, above, and much above). By displaying odds for extremes and everything in-between, TempRisk Apollo provides a more finely tuned forecast.
TempRisk Apollo also runs on a machine learning Neural Network as opposed to a purely probabilistic Naive Bayes model. TempRisk Apollo is the only product in the weather sphere using this engine -- similar to technology used in facial recognition software and self-driving cars -- to forecast weather beyond 15 days out.
Where traditional weather models might forecast it will be 70 degrees on a given day, TempRisk Apollo's probabilistic forecast would account for that specific forecast and also project, for example, an 80% chance it will be hotter than 70 degrees in the Midwest US three weeks from now. TempRisk Apollo users can weigh these probabilities and measurable risk to make better weather-influenced business decisions.
TempRisk Apollo is already receiving accolades from industry leaders as a finalist in the 26th annual CONNECT Most Innovative Product Awards.
In addition to the release of TempRisk Apollo, the EarthRisk team is also providing a new level of meteorological guidance for customers through its new EarthRisk Insights blog. Featuring four posts a week focused on regional forecasts across the US and Europe, EarthRisk Insights will give customers access to real-time analysis of TempRisk Apollo's forecasts to help them draw even more value from it.
EarthRisk Insights Blog:
Access to the EarthRisk Insights blog can be granted to interested media upon request.
About EarthRisk Technologies:
EarthRisk Technologies is a San Diego-based software company founded in 2010. The company's product suite is a web-based platform that crunches more than 60 years of weather data to formulate the odds of cold snaps and heat waves up to 40 days in advance, a lead-time that is twice as long as any in the industry. Trading groups, power producers and energy traders around the globe use TempRisk for a climatological edge in their investments.
For more information, visit www.earthrisktech.com
SOURCE EarthRisk Technologies