A recent peer-reviewed study, led by EcoHealth Alliance's Dr. Parviez Hosseini, identifies key risk factors for the global spread of diseases, and best practices to predict and prevent the spread of pandemic diseases
NEW YORK, Oct. 6 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A recent study led by Dr. Parviez Hosseini, a senior research fellow from EcoHealth Alliance (formerly Wildlife Trust), explains the importance of identifying global pandemic risk factors as early as possible, in order to predict the spread of diseases like H1N1 "swine" flu and SARS. "Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic data for Early Pandemic Spread," recently published in the scientific publication PLoS ONE, examines the interplay among travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and spread of H1N1 and other viruses.
The report points to the need for improved surveillance of diseases in traded livestock and rapid deployment of control measures in those countries first affected – especially countries in the predicted path of the disease and those with fewer healthcare resources. "The most benefit accrues when higher-income countries provide additional resources to lower-income countries, particularly those that have high-volume air traffic," said Dr. Hosseini. "International authorities should earmark more aid for the poorest countries where the risk of emerging infectious diseases is highest, in order to detect infections as early as possible, and to reduce the human and economic disaster of global pandemics."
2009 H1N1 Outbreak Lessons Learned
By May 2009, two weeks after cases of the A/H1N1 strain was first reported, the disease had already spread to 24 countries, 40 U.S. states, and nine Canadian provinces. The rapid spread of this disease was due in large part to consumer air travel exacerbated by slow reporting in countries with the fewest healthcare resources. "We might one day be able to predict the emergence of viruses and develop vaccines more quickly; however, in order to do so, we first need to have greater surveillance in countries with the fewest healthcare resources," Hosseini said.
Last year's strain of H1N1 was relatively mild; however, if a more dangerous strain like the H5N1 "avian flu" subtype were to spread similarly, the outcome would be catastrophic in terms of human suffering and economic damage. Were this to occur, the economic cost has been estimated between $71 billion and $167 billion. "The measures we propose are likely to have economic benefits that far outweigh their costs," according to Hosseini.
Among the key conclusions and strategies recommended in the report were the following:
- Expanded surveillance for diseases in livestock populations – Only through surveillance can scientists predict the emergence of diseases, and develop vaccines in advance of their spread; however, even dramatic reductions in the international live animal trade may not prevent the exposure of local livestock to new types of viruses from distant locations.
- Leverage major airport hubs to halt the spread of disease – Rather than rely solely on travel restrictions, airports serving as major transportation hubs could also become venues both for disease surveillance, as well as serve double duty as facilities to train people and stockpile medicines in preparation for pandemics.
- Provide aid to countries with the lowest healthcare resources – Healthcare spending plays a critical role in determining a country's ability to detect, confirm, and report cases in the early stages; it is in the best interests of intergovernmental and other aid agencies to provide subsidies for outbreak response to nations with high air-travel connectivity and low healthcare resources.
- Early targeting – Efforts to target diseases are more effective when they are set up in advance of a pandemic; and these efforts should be positioned to target emerging-disease hot spots.
To read or download the complete report, visit http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0012763.
About Dr. Parviez Hosseini
Dr. Hosseini is a senior research fellow with EcoHealth Alliance who studies vector-borne diseases in hot-spot regions around the world to help predict and prevent the outbreak of known pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and Chikungunya. Dr. Hosseini's research helps inform governments, policy makers and public health officials on the threats of emerging infectious diseases.
About EcoHealth Alliance
Building on 40 years of innovative science, EcoHealth Alliance (formerly Wildlife Trust) is a non-profit international conservation organization dedicated to protecting wildlife and safeguarding human health from the emergence of disease. The organization develops ways to combat the effects of damaged ecosystems on human and wildlife health. It specializes in saving biodiversity in human-dominated ecosystems where ecological health is most at risk from habitat loss, species imbalance, pollution and other environmental issues. EcoHealth Alliance scientists also identify and examine the causes affecting the health of global ecosystems in the U.S. and more than 20 countries worldwide. EcoHealth Alliance's strength is founded on innovations in research, education, training, and support from a global network of EcoHealth Alliance conservation partners. For more information, visit http://ecohealthalliance.org.
EcoHealth Alliance is a tax-exempt 501(c)(3) nonprofit charitable organization.
SOURCE EcoHealth Alliance