LONDON, Dec. 19, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
We anticipate a robust expansion in total trade in Egypt in 2017, in real terms at least. However, there will be a second consecutive year of declines in the nominal value of trade. This will be driven in part by an anticipated slowdown in imports growth, following what we believe is an inevitable devaluation of the pound before the end of 2016.
Latest Forecasts and Updates
- Despite a mixed outlook for consumer demand in 2017, we expect that project cargos associated with strong growth in fixed investment -which we expect to drive growth this year - will keep growth in road haulage volumes robust this year. Over the medium term, a recovery in consumer demand supported by ongoing investment in the road network under the National Road Programme will ensure that growth remains positive. Road haulage will remain overwhelmingly the dominant freight transport mode over the course of our forecast period and demand, ceding nothing in terms of market share to rail or air freight.
- We hold a positive view on volume growth at Egypt's ports, in terms of gross tonnage - which will be supported by a ramp-up in fixed investment in the economy at large - and containers. While we expect that demand for imported goods will be dented by a currency devaluation, there will still be growth. Meanwhile, exports will benefit from a cheaper pound.
- We hold a positive view on the Egyptian rail freight sector in the near term and beyond, anticipating that a pick-up in construction activity in the country will support rail freight growth through increasing demand for the transportation of project cargos.
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