Electric Vehicle Industry Profitability 2012 - Where, Why, What Next
NEW YORK, Feb. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
Electric Vehicle Industry Profitability 2012 - Where, Why, What Nexthttp://www.reportlinker.com/p0770955/Electric-Vehicle-Industry-Profitability-2012---Where-Why-What-Next.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Clean_Veh
This report spells out the "Rules of the Marketplace" and sets them against the activities of many organisations active in the electric vehicle (EV) value chain to explain how to create success. It analyses the finances and positioning of many suppliers of EVs and their components, covering hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air, because they have increasing commonality in commercial terms. For example, they share the same parts and have the same lessons of success and failure. This report assesses profitability of companies making electric vehicles and their components, how industry rules predict winners and losers and acquisition and investment opportunities. Contrary to popular understanding, people have been making money out of electric vehicles and their key components for over 110 years. Today, there remain a large number of companies profitably participating in the business. Unfortunately there continue to be frequent bankruptcies in the electric vehicle business. The primary difference lies in market positioning and making what will be wanted in the years to come but also in avoiding areas of oversupply but there is more to it than that. For example, the leaders in pure electric indoor forklifts make good money following a shakeout 15 years ago and now that outdoor hybrid forklifts are a new growth sector, others are seeking to lead in them, rather than focussing on the saturated market. Profit V curves, technological roadmaps, experience curves, the Boston matrix and other tools give clarity about what comes next.
Ten years ago, IDTechEx correctly foresaw the collapse of many in the EV business due to wrong positioning and it forecasted the success of others. It now leverages its long history of analysing the financial, technical and marketing performance in this industry to show how to win and how to spot winners. Superb acquisition and investment opportunities abound. Many players headed for the rocks can be turned around before it is too late.
There are about 1600 manufacturers of electric vehicles apart from the huge number making e-bikes. There are about 500 vertically integrated manufacturers of their key components. Nearly all of them will collapse because of wrong technology or market positioning or undercapitalisation. However, many leaders will create enduringly profitable businesses of over $10 billion each and there will be many prosperous niche players too. This report covers the trends in trading performance and relative strength of companies making hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air and their six key components. It gives tools for predicting future trading success both in niches and in volume supply. It identifies gaps in these markets as well as danger areas. The report also gives ten year forecasts for electric vehicles of all types and a guide to winners and losers and optimal strategies for the next decade in the light of what will happen. This report will be invaluable to all those making or intending to profitably make electric vehicles or their components. It is also a vital reference for those investing in and acquiring EV businesses.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS1.2. Toyota: global leader in EVs by a big margin1.3. Recent exhibits1.4. Disruptive product and market options1.5. Electric vehicle market by application 2012-20222. INTRODUCTION2.1. Anatomy of Electric Vehicles by Land, Water and Air2.2. Anatomy of the vehicle2.3. Choices of motor2.3.1. Brushed versions are losers2.3.2. Asynchronous and synchronous battling it out2.3.3. Axial flux vs radial flux motors2.4. Sophisticated motors bridging gaps in performance2.4.1. Advanced asynchronous motor variant - Chorus Motors2.4.2. Advanced synchronous PM motor - Protean Electric2.5. Motor position2.6. Trend to higher voltages2.7. NEV=Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle which is like a small car but not street legal2.8. Profitability and structure of the EV industry in 20012.9. How things are different in 20122.10. Explaining and predicting profitability - rules of the marketplace2.10.1. The breakeven curve2.10.2. Type of business2.10.3. Product and business positioning2.10.4. Methodology of the Strategic Planning Institute2.10.5. Product positioning is more important than anything2.10.6. Detailed SRI findings2.10.7. Meaningful market segmentation2.10.8. Redefining the battleground2.10.9. V curve of sustainable profitability with size2.10.10. Minimum size for enduring profitability2.10.11. Setting up a service business is easier2.10.12. Riding the V2.10.13. V curve for two wheel and allied Light Electric Vehicles LEVs2.10.14. Experience curves2.11. Racing down the experience curve2.11.1. Disruptive products3. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL LAND EVS3.1. Many small markets becoming one?4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL VEHICLES / MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT4.1. Leaders4.1.1. Crown Equipment Corporation4.1.2. KION Group GmbH Germany4.1.3. Nacco Industries Inc4.2. Niche players4.3. Currently in-between5. OTHER INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLES5.1. Leaders5.1.1. Daimler AG Germany5.1.2. Toyota Hino Motors Japan5.2. Niche players5.2.1. Polaris Industries USA5.3. Currently in between5.3.1. DesignLine International New Zealand5.3.2. Optare UK6. CARS, GOLF CARS AND ALLIED6.1. Leaders6.1.1. Ford USA6.1.2. Honda Japan6.1.3. Mitsubishi Japan6.1.4. Nissan Japan6.1.5. Toyota Japan6.2. Niche players6.2.1. Ingersoll Rand USA6.2.2. Tesla USA6.2.3. Textron USA6.3. Currently in between7. TWO WHEEL AND ALLIED LEVS7.1. Leaders7.1.1. Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle, China7.1.2. Tianjin Aima Science and Technology Co, China7.1.3. Jiangsu Yadea Technical Development Co China7.2. Niche players7.3. Currently in between8. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED8.1. Leaders8.1.1. Invacare USA8.1.2. Pihsiang Taiwan8.1.3. Pride Mobility Products Corporation USA8.2. Currently in between9. AIR, WATER, MILITARY AND OTHER EVS9.1. Niche players9.1.1. AeroVironment USA9.1.2. Kongsberg Norway9.2. Currently in between10. KEY ENABLING COMPONENTS10.1. Three becoming six10.2. Challenge of competing with your customers10.3. Traction batteries10.4. Potential Leaders10.4.1. LGChem Korea10.4.2. Panasonic/ Sanyo Japan10.4.3. SB LiMotive and Samsung10.4.4. Toyota Japan10.5. Niche Players10.5.1. SAFT France10.5.2. Valence Technologies USA10.6. Currently in between10.6.1. A123 Systems USA10.6.2. Ener1- Enerdel10.6.3. EnerSys/ ASDL10.7. Electronics & electrics10.8. Energy harvesting10.9. Traction motors10.9.2. UQM Technologies USA10.10. Range extenders10.10.1. Lotus Engineering10.11. Supercapacitors/ ultracapacitorsAPPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. The main electric vehicle types with market size and niche and volume value leaders
1.2. Toyota results for FY to March 2011 in US dollars billion
1.3. Corporate information for Hino Motors
1.4. Estimate of Toyota EV sales value in 2012
1.5. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
2.1. Typical cost structure of pure electric vehicles as % of total
2.2. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for electric vehicles.
2.3. The main choices of electric vehicle traction motor technology over the next decade.
2.4. A comparison of potential and actual electric traction motor technologies is given below
2.5. Comparison of outer‐rotor and inner‐rotor motors
2.6. Number of EV manufacturers by type of vehicle and market size by type in 2001
2.7. Global electric vehicle manufacturing business in $billion at ex-factory price 2012-2022
4.1. KION Group results
4.2. KION view of leaders in material handling vehicles in 2009 in Euros billion.
4.3. Nacco Industries results in $ million, only some of which are from sale of electric vehicles
5.1. Corporate information for Hino Motors
6.1. Toyota results for FY to March 2011 in US dollars billion
6.2. Estimate of Toyota EV sales value in 2012
10.1. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
10.2. Extract from SEC-10K filing by Valence Technologies for Fiscal Year ended March 31 2011 in thousands
10.3. 123 of the companies manufacturing traction motors for electric vehicles
FIGURES1.1. Toyota position in Boston matrix for electric vehicles (hybrid and pure electric) globally1.2. Sales by Business Segment (FY 2011, Consolidated Basis)1.3. Toyota global technology vision1.4. Toyota Lexus CT 200, RX450 and GS 450 hybrid cars at Brussels Motor Show 20121.5. Toyota Auris hybrid made in the UK for global markets and the new 7 seat Prius hybrid car1.6. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded2.1. Boeing fuel cell aircraft trial2.2. The anatomy of a pure electric vehicle2.3. A hybrid electric vehicle, the Orion VII bus with BAE Systems HybridriveTM powertrain2.4. Greenline 33 hybrid boat with 7kW electric motor2.5. Bicycle hub motor rotor left and stator right.2.6. Axial flux in-wheel motor driving a bicycle and a propeller.2.7. 60/15 kW Chorus Meshcon motor2.8. Protean in-wheel motor for on-road vehicles2.9. Mine resistant ambush protected - All Terrain Vehicle MATV2.10. MATV structure2.11. Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mild hybrids in red, plug-in hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green2.12. Frazer Nash Namir2.13. Number of EV manufacturers worldwide in 20012.14. Percent of operations that were profitable in 2001 between manufacturing and service2.15. Percent of manufacturing operations that were profitable in 2001 by type of vehicle2.16. Percent of service businesses that were profitable in 2001 by type of service2.17. Manufacturers of electric vehicles in 2011-12 globally by type of vehicle, with cars including golf cars and light industrial/ commercial including buses and trucks.2.18. Global electric vehicle manufacturing business in $billion at ex-factory price 2012-20222.19. Basic breakeven curve2.21. V curve of maximum enduring profitability with size of business2.22. Steep V curve for dairy companies in 19742.23. V curve for electric heavy industrial vehicles such as forklifts2.24. V curve for electric buses2.25. V curve for electric car manufacture.2.26. V curve for Golf Car and motorised caddy2.27. V curve for mobility vehicles for the disabled2.28. V curve for two wheel and allied Light Electric Vehicles LEVs2.29. V curve for supercapacitors2.31. Silicon photovoltaics experience curve2.32. Experience curve for electricity production2.34. Frequency of learning rates in 156 studies2.35. Boston matrix as a predictor2.36. Typical figures used by BCG in the Boston matrix4.1. KION Linde and Still brand hybrid electric forklifts5.1. Polaris Ranger leisure EV6.1. Ford Focus planned for 2013 as shown at the 2012 Brussels Motor Show.6.2. Honda EVs at Brussels Motor Show 20126.3. Toyota position in Boston matrix for electric vehicles (hybrid and pure electric) globally6.4. Sales by Business Segment (FY 2011, Consolidated Basis)6.5. Toyota global technology vision6.6. Toyota Lexus CT 200, RX450 and GS 450 hybrid cars at Brussels Motor Show 20126.7. Toyota Auris hybrid made in the UK for global markets and the new 7 seat Prius hybrid car10.1. Bénéteau family sea-going motor sailer10.2. Lotus Engineering cutaway hybrid Evora 414Evolution exhibit
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