EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

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EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022


EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Summary

Ulcerative colitis is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) that causes ulcers in the innermost lining of the colon and rectum. The colon's ability to absorb water is decreased, which leads to progressive loosening of the stool, bloody stool, and sometimes cramping or abdominal pain with urgency for bowel movement (CDC, 2013; NDDIC, 2013). The exact cause or triggers of the disease are yet to be identified. Globally, the incidence of ulcerative colitis varied from 0.34 cases per 100,000 population in China to as high as 15.1 cases per 100,000 population in the UK in the 1990s (Lok et al., 2008; Shivananda et al., 1996). The diagnosed prevalence of the condition ranged between 6.3 cases per 100,000 population in China in 2006 and 243 cases per 100,000 population in the UK during 2000–2002 (Lok et al., 2008; Rubin et al., 2000).

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there were 134,109 incident cases of ulcerative colitis in the 10MM in 2012, and the number of incident cases will grow 12.2% over the next decade to 150,530 incident cases. In 2012, there were 1,860,616 prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis in the 10MM. Each of the 10MM, except Germany, will see an increase in prevalent cases over the 10-year forecast period.

This forecast is supported by historical data for ulcerative colitis gathered from peer-reviewed journals and country-specific studies, in addition to reports taken from national health authorities and international organizations with interests in gastroenterology or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Another major strength of this analysis is that to take into account historical trends of ulcerative colitis and provide a robust forecast, GlobalData epidemiologists conducted linear regression analysis whenever sufficient historical data were available and the literature supported the resulting trend.

Scope

- The ulcerative colitis EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of ulcerative colitis in the 10MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, China, and India). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the incident cases of ulcerative colitis segmented by sex and age (in five-year age groups beginning at 10 years and ending at 85 years and older), in addition to prevalent cases in these markets.
- The ulcerative colitis epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 10MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global ulcerative colitis market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global ulcerative colitis market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for ulcerative colitis therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4

1.1 List of Tables
6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
3.2.1 Being Caucasian and Jewish can increase the risk of ulcerative colitis by almost 37 times 12
3.2.2 Family history of ulcerative colitis in first-degree relatives can increase the risk of ulcerative colitis almost three-fold 13
3.2.3 Current smokers have a lower chance of getting ulcerative colitis than former smokers or never smokers 13
3.3 Global Trends 15
3.3.1 US 16
3.3.2 5EU 19
3.3.3 Japan 22
3.3.4 Canada 24
3.3.5 China 26
3.3.6 India 28
3.4 Forecast Methodology 29
3.4.1 Sources Used 31
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 38
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 39
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Ulcerative Colitis Incident Cases (2012-2022) 45
3.5.1 Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 45
3.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 47
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 49
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Incidence Rates 52
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for Ulcerative Colitis Prevalent Cases (2012-2022) 53
3.6.1 Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 53
3.6.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 55
3.6.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 57
3.6.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence Proportions 59
3.7 Discussion 61
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 61
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 62
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 63
4 Appendix 64
4.1 Bibliography 64
4.2 About the Authors 69
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 69
4.2.2 Reviewers 69
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy 71
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 71
4.3 About GlobalData 72
4.4 About EpiCast 72
4.5 Disclaimer 72

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Putative Risk Factors for Ulcerative Colitis 12
Table 2: Prevalence of Ulcerative Colitis in the US 18
Table 3: Incidence of Ulcerative Colitis in the 5EU 19
Table 4: Prevalence of Ulcerative Colitis in the 5EU 20
Table 5: 10MM, Sources of Ulcerative Colitis Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiological Forecast 29
Table 6: 10MM, Sources of Ulcerative Colitis Prevalence Data Used in the Epidemiological Forecast 30
Table 7: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2012-2022 46
Table 8: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2012 48
Table 9: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Sex, Ages ? 10 Years, N (Row %), 2012 50
Table 10: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2012-2022 54
Table 11: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2012 56
Table 12: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Sex, Ages ? 10 Years, N (Row %), 2012 58

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Olmsted Country, Minnesota, US, Age- and Sex-Adjusted Incidence of Ulcerative Colitis, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1940-2000 17
Figure 2: Canada, Incidence and Prevalence of Ulcerative Colitis, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1990-2001 24
Figure 3: Hong Kong, China, Crude Incidence and Prevalence of Ulcerative Colitis, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1997-2006 26
Figure 4: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2012-2022 47
Figure 5: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Age, Both Sexes, N, 2012 49
Figure 6: 10MM, Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Sex, Ages ? 10 Years, N, 2012 51
Figure 7: 10MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2012 52
Figure 8: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2012-2022 55
Figure 9: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Age, Both Sexes, N, 2012 57
Figure 10: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of Ulcerative Colitis, By Sex, Ages ? 10 Years, N, 2012 59
Figure 11: 10MM, Age-Standardized Prevalence of Ulcerative Colitis, Ages ? 10 Years, Both Sexes, %, 2012 60

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EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022
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