"In this risk-averse period, banks are looking for credit growth primarily from existing customers, on whom they have more data," said Frans Labuschagne, general manager for FICO in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. "But customers are risk-averse too, so banks need to really dig into customer needs to identify offers that might work. That's where Big Data comes in — it's a new resource that, if used wisely, can guide much more customer-centric offers and services."
In the survey, 71 percent of respondents said demonstrating a higher return on capital is a priority for next year, making this the top priority for 2013. The other highest priorities identified were using mobile channels (49 percent) and increasing capital to meet Basel requirements (just 40 percent, but 21 percent put it as a top priority).
On the risk front, at least 40 percent of respondents saw delinquencies rising in the next six months on mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, small business loans and overdrafts. "This represents an improvement on the prior survey, released in July, when these numbers were above 50 percent," said Labuschagne. "For example, 44 percent of respondents forecast an increase in mortgage delinquencies, compared to 55 percent in the last survey."
The biggest change in the credit demand and supply picture occurred in the so-called "credit gap" between the percentages of respondents forecasting a rise in demand for credit vs. a rise in supply. The credit gap forecast for small businesses fell sharply in this survey, to the lowest point this year, just 9 points. The respondents forecasting an increase in volume of credit requested by small businesses fell from 37 to 35 percent, while those forecasting an increase in credit granted rose from 16 to 26 percent. However, the credit gap forecast for consumer lending rose to a full 20 points. Now, 35 percent of respondents predict a rise in the amount of credit requested by consumer, compared with just 15 percent who predict the amount granted will rise.
"Governments continue to pressure lenders to expand credit to businesses, and recent programmes like the UK small business lending scheme announced by the Bank of England should help," added Patrick Desmares, secretary general of Efma. "However, FICO and Efma believe lenders can and should do more to make capital available to small and medium-sized businesses, which can fuel economic growth and which continue to struggle to get credit."
A detailed report, including specific results for the UK, Germany/Austria/Switzerland and Spain/Portugal, is available online. Participants included credit-granting institutions ranging from local banks to global institutions. Around 70 representatives from 27 European countries and 55 companies responded to this survey.
FICO (NYSE: FICO), frmerly known as Fair Isaac, delivers superior predictive analytics solutions that drive smarter decisions. The company's groundbreaking use of mathematics to predict consumer behavior has transformed entire industries and revolutionized the way risk is managed and products are marketed. FICO's innovative solutions include the industry-leading solutions for measuring credit risk, managing credit accounts, identifying and minimizing the impact of fraud, and customizing consumer offers with pinpoint accuracy. Most of the world's top banks, as well as leading insurers, retailers, pharmaceutical companies and government agencies, rely on FICO solutions to accelerate growth, control risk, boost profits and meet regulatory and competitive demands. Learn more at www.fico.com. FICO: Make every decision count™.
For FICO news and media resources, visit www.fico.com/news.
As a global not-for-profit organisation, Efma brings together more than 3,300 retail financial services companies from over 130 countries. With a membership base consisting of almost a third of all large retail banks worldwide, Efma has proven to be a valuable resource for the global industry, offering members exclusive access to a multitude of resources, databases, studies, articles, news feeds and publications. Efma also provides numerous networking opportunities through working groups, online communities and international meetings.
For more information: www.efma.com
Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Information
Except for historical information contained herein, the statements contained in this news release that relate to FICO or its business are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the success of the Company's Decision Management strategy and reengineering plan, the maintenance of its existing relationships and ability to create new relationships with customers and key alliance partners, its ability to continue to develop new and enhanced products and services, its ability to recruit and retain key technical and managerial personnel, competition, regulatory changes applicable to the use of consumer credit and other data, the failure to realize the anticipated benefits of any acquisitions, continuing material adverse developments in global economic conditions, and other risks described from time to time in FICO's SEC reports, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2012. If any of these risks or uncertainties materializes, FICO's results could differ materially from its expectations. FICO disclaims any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements.
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