Existing Home Sales Likely To Dip Slightly In February According To The Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Projects February Sales of 5.4 Million Units (SAAR) And a Median Sales Price of $220,639

Mar 02, 2016, 12:42 ET from Ten-X

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., March 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X (formerly Auction.com), the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects that existing home sales for February will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.23 and 5.58 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.4 million – down 1.3 percent from the previous month, but up a healthy 10.4 percent from a year ago.

"Following the temporary market setbacks brought on by the implementation of the CFPB's 'Know Before You Owe' rules, the latest sales figures indicate that housing is starting off the year on solid ground," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "Several positive underlying fundamentals – particularly a stronger labor market and improved household spending power due to reduced energy expenses – should lead to a rise in home sales despite growing global economic concerns and relatively weak GDP growth."

Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) reported a slight (0.4 percent) month-over-month increase in existing home sales for January to 5.47 million units, the highest level in six months and an 11 percent increase from a year ago, the largest annual gain since July 2013. Still, the market continues to face some significant headwinds.

"Constrained inventory will continue to limit the recovery of the housing market, and it doesn't seem likely that we're going to see a surge in the number of homes for sale as the spring home buying season approaches," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "As demand appears to be growing – especially in certain geographies – prices are likely to rise, impacting affordability, and leaving homeownership just out of reach for many would-be buyers."

NAR recently reported an 8.2 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $213,800 for January. This marks the largest annual increase since April and the 47th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Findings from the Ten-X Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $209,607 and $231,671 in the month of February with a targeted price of $220,639, representing a 9.3 percent year-over-year increase.

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Ten-X will occasionally update its nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast model has been highly accurate over the past year.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

January 2015

4.82

5.01

4.83 – 5.19

February 2015

4.89

5.03

4.87 – 5.19

March 2015

5.19

5.06

4.90 - 5.22

April 2015

5.04

5.33

5.16 – 5.50

May 2015

5.32

5.31

5.14 – 5.48

June 2015

5.48

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

July 2015

5.58

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2015

5.31

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

TBD

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported Existing Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com Predicted Range

January 2015

$197,600

5.2%

$205,126

9.2%

$194,869 - $215,382

February 2015

$201,900

7.2%

$201,077

6.7%

$191,023 - $211,131

March 2015

$210,700

7.1%

$204,165

3.8%

$193,956 - $214,373

April 2015

$219,400

8.9%

$211,633

5.0%

$201,052 - $222,215

May 2015

$228,700

7.9%

$220,799

4.2%

$209,759 - $231,839

June 2015

$236,400

6.5%

$228,929

3.1%

$222,098 - $245,477

July 2015

$234,000

5.6%

$239,126

7.9%

$227,170 - $251,082

August 2015

$228,700

4.7%

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

TBD

TBD

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X
Ten-X (formerly Auction.com) is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, having sold 200,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $37 billion since 2007. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions entirely online.

Ten-X empowers consumers, investors and real estate professionals with unprecedented levels of flexibility, control and simplicity – and the convenience of buying and selling properties whenever they want and from wherever they are. As real estate continues to move online, Ten-X is uniquely positioned to be at the forefront of this dramatic behavioral shift.

Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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