Future TV 2025
NEW YORK, Oct. 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
This report analyses the evolution, key trends and breakthroughs of the TV and video sector and sets out IDATE's vision of the market landscape in 2025. It analyses the new uses and the major shifts within the audiovisual industry and then provides readers with a long-term vision for the role of the different kind of players. It contains quantitative market data – United States, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom - for 2013 and gives you detailed forward analyses of the years to come: : «Music industry syndrome », Business as usual », « Best of both worlds ».
Europe,France,Germany,world,Europe,Italy,Japan,Spain,the UK,the United States
This study includes:
- a report
- a slideshow
The methods employed by IDATE's teams of analysts and consultants are based on an approach that combines:
• research and validation of data collected in the field;
• the application of classic industry and market analysis tools: segmentation, competition analysis, strategic strengths, modelling, assessment and forecasts…;
• the expertise of specialists who contribute their own analytical capabilities and those of their network of market analysts.
More specifically, the tools employed by IDATE's teams are as follows:
1/ A multi-disciplinary team of full-time consultants, specialized by sector of activity
IDATE's analyses are performed primarily by our in-house consultants, and very occasionally by freelance market analysts. This approach allows us to capitalize on our pool of expertise through teamwork, sharing knowledge, ideas, contacts, viewpoints and key data. Each report is drafted by a team of specialists, overseen by senior consultants with a proven track record in their field.
2/ Primary and secondary research
IDATE reports and databases are compiled based on primary data obtained from one-on-one interviews with the sector's decision-makers, and on secondary data which is established by cross-referencing public sources and external databases.
3/ An integrated information centre sustained by a number of tools and proprietary databases
Over the past 30 years, IDATE has established working and data organization methods and proprietary databases that trace the central chapters in the history of our sectors of expertise.
• Companies: IDATE's in-house data service tracks the latest news and events to come out of the top telecom, Internet and media industry companies around the globe. Innovative firms and start-ups are monitored by the market experts in the different "Practices".
• Markets: IDATE's databases are derived from rigorous processing of fundamental economic variables (GDP, investments, exchange rates, demographics, etc.) and their relation to decisive sector-specific and national elements (capex, national market dynamics, etc.).
• Technologies: IDATE's organization by Practice provides us with an efficient means of tracking innovation. IDATE's engineers ensure in-depth understanding of the changing shape of products and services and of the latest innovations in the marketplace.
4/ Contents of the published reports
Each IDATE market report details the structures and issues at play in the market being examined, the decisive forces (technologies, regulation, consumption) and the players involved. Particular emphasis is given to market assessments and forecasts, as part of the central premise. All market reports are laid out in a clear and concise manner, and illustrated with tables and graphs of key market data and trends.
The process of drafting of a market report includes the following stages:
• analysis of the information available in the in-house databases, and review of analyses performed in the recent past;
• based on a preliminary segmentation and assessment of the market, and as part of an validated interview guide, analysts conduct interviews that enable them to validate working hypotheses;
• a market model is then established, making it possible to test the hypotheses that have an impact on the market's development, and validated by a new round of interviews;
• and, finally, the report's conclusions are debated with the team responsible for the project and with expert consultants from the various fields involved;
• a final proofreading and editing/revision process, prior to the production of the final version of the report which is delivered to the client.
5/ Methodology specific to this report
The aim of this 2013 edition of our "Future TV 2025" market report is to explore likely disruptions in the distribution of TV content over the next ten years. As in previous editions, we have analysed the ways that user behaviour and the TV industry's structure have evolved and will evolve, but here we have chosen to deliver a more cut and dried view of the consequences.
• Some segments of the entertainment industry, such as music and print media, have experienced massive upheavals over the past several years. The video sector seems to have been less affected up to now. But we also believe that all of the various disruptive elements are now in place – as much from a technical perspective with the ubiquity of broadband and superfast broadband, as from a user perspective, now that the youngest consumers are turning away en masse from live TV, and from an industrial perspective as market competition goes global.
• We believe that these factors are largely underestimated, and that they will have an impact not only on the traditional TV industry, but also on players like telecom carriers who have an increasing stake in it. The goal of this report, then, is to describe the world of TV distribution that has been profoundly altered by its migration to, and potentially absorption by the internet.
• Even the very definition of the word "television" is changing. Where it once referred to the combination of video programming content, a network and a specific device, namely the TV set, what does it mean now that TV viewing is on-demand, on multiple devices and over networks that deliver a plethora of services?
• Television built its reputation by broadcasting major events, such as sport and cinema, or by turning radio programmes (talk shows, the news) into visual events; and by inventing its own genres, from sitcoms and dramas to reality TV shows which now form the bulwark of prime time programming.
• More than anything, it is through the production and distribution of these specific programmes that television defines itself, be it live or on-demand, on a TV set or tablet, over a telecommunications or a broadcasting network.
Table of contents
1. Executive Summary 6
1.1. Massive upheavals in the video programme distribution sector 6
1.1.1. Huge changes in viewer behaviour 6
1.1.2. Upheavals in the industrial structure 6
1.2. These changes will alter the TV industry's very structure 7
1.3. Three TV content distribution models will coexist 8
1.4. The TV industry's reorganization will play out against a backdrop of (at best) stagnation in developed markets 8
2. Methodology 9
3. Disruptions in viewer behaviour 12
3.1. Trend No. 1: More and higher quality video 12
3.2. Trend No. 2: Programme-driven usage 14
3.3. Trend No. 3: Globalized content 15
3.4. Trend No. 4: Users less inclined to pay 17
3.5. Summary: long-term view of disruptions in viewing behaviour 17
4. Changes in the industrial structure 19
4.1. Trend No. 1: New key functions 19
4.2. Trend No. 2: A more competitive market 20
4.3. Trend No. 3: More agnostic networks 22
4.4. Trend No. 4: The industry goes vertical 24
4.5. Trend No. 5: Redefining TV networks' positioning 28
4.6. Major disruptions in TV content distribution 31
5. Who will have the starring roles in 2025? 32
5.1. Open telecom networks 32
5.1.1. A change in position for broadcast networks 33
5.1.2. Increasingly cloud-centric devices 34
5.1.3. New entrants' services integrated into vertical ecosystems 34
5.1.4. How television's format will change 35
5.1.5. What will change for veteran broadcasters? 36
5.1.6. Summary: major disruptions in content distribution over the next 10 years 37
6. Market scenarios up to 2025 39
6.1. The scenarios' key parameters 39
6.2. Three market scenarios for 2025 39
6.3. The scenarios in Figures 40
6.3.1. The business-as-usual scenario 40
6.3.2. Assessment of the alternative scenarios 42
7. Detailed Figures for the "business as usual" scenario 44
7.1. Worldwide 44
7.2. The United States 44
7.3. Japan 44
7.4. Europe 45
7.5. France 45
7.6. Germany 45
7.7. Italy 46
7.8. Spain 46
7.9. The UK 46
Table 1: Rate of increase for the main online pastimes in the United States, 2010-2012 13
Table 2: How American viewers choose the TV series they watch 15
Table 3: TV series' share of network programming in the United States 16
Table 4: Examples of European cableco and IPTV services available via the internet 23
Table 5: Positioning of seven top candidates to supply vertically integrated solutions 27
Table 6: Time Warner pay-TV offers 28
Table 7: TV channels carried on smart TVs 29
Table 8: Criteria for measuring players' competitive position in the TV services market 36
Table 9: Overview of market scenarios 40
Figure 1: Comparison of the three scenarios 8
Figure 2: Figure-backed forecasting model, 2013-2025 11
Figure 3: Main trends in viewer behaviour 12
Figure 4: Percentage of videos launched on different devices 13
Figure 5: Change in the average size of French households, 1975-2024 14
Figure 6: Comparative growth of American movies' domestic and international box office receipts, 2008-2012 16
Figure 7: Long-term disruptions in viewer behaviour 18
Figure 8: Changes in the industrial structure of the TV sector 19
Figure 9: Amount of programming self-produced by the top 5 American TV networks in 2010 24
Figure 10: Change in the number of cable channels and cable operators' ownership in the United States 25
Figure 11: Major disruptions in TV content distribution 31
Figure 12: How TV networks will evolve 32
Figure 13: How TV networks will evolve 35
Figure 14: The competitive position of a selection of potential TV service providers in Europe 36
Figure 15: The three main, long-term content distribution models 38
Figure 16: Growth of video service revenue worldwide, on fixed and mobile networks (1) 40
Figure 17: Growth of video service revenue on fixed and mobile networks in the EU-5 41
Figure 18: Linear vs. on-demand TV revenue in 2025 41
Figure 19: Linear vs. on-demand TV revenue in Europe's five biggest markets 42
Figure 20: Comparison of the three scenarios in Europe's five biggest markets 42
Figure 21: Linear vs. on-demand services in 2025 in the different scenarios, in the EU-5 43
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